Prediction 2951

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 São Paulo

Description:

Validation test 2 for UF=SP (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 120.60 7.15 10.74 18.86 43.79 329.64 808.55 1374.98 2079.14
2023-10-15 149.18 8.85 13.28 23.33 54.17 407.73 1000.10 1700.72 2571.71
2023-10-22 184.52 10.94 16.43 28.86 67.00 504.32 1237.02 2103.62 3180.94
2023-10-29 228.22 13.53 20.32 35.69 82.87 623.78 1530.04 2601.90 3934.41
2023-11-05 282.27 16.74 25.13 44.15 102.49 771.51 1892.41 3218.13 4866.22
2023-11-12 349.11 20.70 31.09 54.60 126.76 954.19 2340.49 3980.12 6018.45
2023-11-19 431.74 25.60 38.44 67.52 156.76 1180.04 2894.48 4922.20 7443.00
2023-11-26 533.88 31.66 47.54 83.50 193.85 1459.21 3579.23 6086.65 9203.80
2023-12-03 660.08 39.14 58.78 103.23 239.67 1804.13 4425.27 7525.38 11379.34
2023-12-10 815.90 48.38 72.65 127.61 296.25 2230.04 5469.97 9301.94 14065.74
2023-12-17 1008.15 59.78 89.77 157.67 366.06 2755.49 6758.82 11493.68 17379.93
2023-12-24 1244.99 73.82 110.86 194.71 452.05 3402.82 8346.64 14193.85 21462.94
2023-12-31 1536.15 91.09 136.79 240.25 557.77 4198.63 10298.65 17513.33 26482.42
2024-01-07 1892.94 112.24 168.56 296.05 687.32 5173.80 12690.59 21580.93 32633.16
2024-01-14 2327.97 138.04 207.29 364.09 845.28 6362.83 15607.11 26540.61 40132.84
2024-01-21 2854.41 169.25 254.17 446.42 1036.43 7801.71 19136.48 32542.47 49208.41
2024-01-28 3484.18 206.59 310.25 544.92 1265.09 9523.01 23358.59 39722.38 60065.36
2024-02-04 4224.51 250.49 376.17 660.70 1533.91 11546.49 28321.88 48162.68 72828.19
2024-02-11 5072.03 300.75 451.64 793.25 1841.64 13862.93 34003.79 57825.02 87438.90
2024-02-18 6004.05 356.01 534.63 939.02 2180.05 16410.35 40252.25 68450.82 103506.48
2024-02-25 6968.26 413.18 620.49 1089.82 2530.15 19045.74 46716.48 79443.55 120128.91
2024-03-03 7875.58 466.98 701.28 1231.73 2859.60 21525.64 52799.33 89787.71 135770.62
2024-03-10 8605.51 510.26 766.28 1345.89 3124.63 23520.71 57692.93 98109.51 148354.25
2024-03-17 9032.73 535.59 804.32 1412.70 3279.75 24688.39 60557.09 102980.15 155719.28
2024-03-24 9071.36 537.89 807.76 1418.74 3293.78 24793.98 60816.09 103420.58 156385.28
2024-03-31 8713.17 516.65 775.87 1362.72 3163.72 23814.96 58414.70 99336.91 150210.24
2024-04-07 8031.52 476.23 715.17 1256.11 2916.22 21951.86 53844.77 91565.53 138458.92
2024-04-14 7147.90 423.83 636.49 1117.92 2595.38 19536.75 47920.86 81491.64 123225.89
2024-04-21 6186.49 366.83 550.88 967.56 2246.30 16909.01 41475.39 70530.83 106651.72
2024-04-28 5243.29 310.90 466.89 820.04 1903.82 14331.02 35151.96 59777.54 90391.35
2024-05-05 4377.25 259.55 389.77 684.59 1589.37 11963.97 29345.91 49904.09 75461.42
2024-05-12 3615.90 214.40 321.98 565.52 1312.92 9883.04 24241.68 41224.10 62336.16
2024-05-19 2965.51 175.84 264.06 463.80 1076.77 8105.37 19881.32 33809.10 51123.73
2024-05-26 2420.32 143.51 215.52 378.53 878.81 6615.24 16226.25 27593.49 41724.91
2024-06-02 1968.97 116.75 175.33 307.94 714.93 5381.61 13200.33 22447.77 33943.92
2024-06-09 1598.36 94.77 142.33 249.98 580.36 4368.66 10715.69 18222.52 27554.81
2024-06-16 1295.67 76.83 115.37 202.64 470.45 3541.35 8686.43 14771.69 22336.70
2024-06-23 1049.33 62.22 93.44 164.11 381.01 2868.05 7034.93 11963.22 18089.93
2024-06-30 849.31 50.36 75.63 132.83 308.38 2321.35 5693.94 9682.81 14641.66
2024-07-07 687.14 40.74 61.19 107.47 249.50 1878.11 4606.73 7833.96 11845.96
2024-07-14 555.79 32.96 49.49 86.92 201.81 1519.10 3726.14 6336.47 9581.57
2024-07-21 449.47 26.65 40.02 70.30 163.20 1228.51 3013.36 5124.36 7748.70
2024-07-28 363.45 21.55 32.36 56.84 131.97 993.40 2436.66 4143.65 6265.74
2024-08-04 293.87 17.43 26.17 45.96 106.70 803.22 1970.18 3350.39 5066.22
2024-08-11 237.60 14.09 21.16 37.16 86.27 649.42 1592.93 2708.86 4096.14
2024-08-18 192.10 11.39 17.11 30.04 69.75 525.05 1287.88 2190.10 3311.71
2024-08-25 155.31 9.21 13.83 24.29 56.39 424.49 1041.22 1770.65 2677.45
2024-09-01 125.56 7.45 11.18 19.64 45.59 343.19 841.80 1431.51 2164.63
2024-09-08 101.51 6.02 9.04 15.88 36.86 277.46 680.56 1157.32 1750.02
2024-09-15 82.07 4.87 7.31 12.84 29.80 224.31 550.20 935.64 1414.81
2024-09-22 66.35 3.93 5.91 10.38 24.09 181.34 444.81 756.42 1143.81
2024-09-29 97.50 5.78 8.68 15.25 35.40 266.50 653.68 1111.61 1680.90
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