Prediction 2954

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Alagoas

Description:

Validation test 3 for UF=AL (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2024-10-06 23.22 3.07 4.23 5.92 11.48 48.79 92.69 134.40 189.18
2024-10-13 26.98 3.57 4.92 6.87 13.34 56.68 107.67 156.12 219.75
2024-10-20 31.33 4.15 5.71 7.98 15.49 65.83 125.06 181.33 255.24
2024-10-27 36.39 4.81 6.63 9.27 17.99 76.46 145.24 210.60 296.44
2024-11-03 42.26 5.59 7.70 10.77 20.89 88.79 168.66 244.56 344.24
2024-11-10 49.07 6.49 8.94 12.50 24.26 103.08 195.82 283.94 399.67
2024-11-17 56.95 7.53 10.38 14.51 28.16 119.66 227.30 329.59 463.92
2024-11-24 66.09 8.74 12.04 16.84 32.67 138.85 263.76 382.45 538.33
2024-12-01 76.65 10.14 13.97 19.53 37.90 161.05 305.93 443.60 624.40
2024-12-08 88.86 11.76 16.19 22.64 43.93 186.69 354.63 514.22 723.81
2024-12-15 102.92 13.62 18.75 26.23 50.89 216.24 410.77 595.62 838.39
2024-12-22 119.09 15.76 21.70 30.35 58.88 250.21 475.30 689.19 970.09
2024-12-29 137.61 18.21 25.07 35.06 68.03 289.11 549.19 796.33 1120.91
2025-01-05 158.70 21.00 28.92 40.44 78.46 333.42 633.38 918.40 1292.74
2025-01-12 182.57 24.15 33.27 46.52 90.27 383.58 728.65 1056.55 1487.19
2025-01-19 209.34 27.70 38.14 53.34 103.50 439.82 835.49 1211.47 1705.25
2025-01-26 239.00 31.62 43.55 60.90 118.16 502.13 953.85 1383.09 1946.83
2025-02-02 271.32 35.90 49.44 69.13 134.14 570.03 1082.84 1570.13 2210.10
2025-02-09 305.78 40.45 55.71 77.91 151.18 642.42 1220.36 1769.53 2490.78
2025-02-16 341.44 45.17 62.21 87.00 168.81 717.36 1362.71 1975.93 2781.31
2025-02-23 376.91 49.87 68.68 96.04 186.35 791.87 1504.26 2181.18 3070.22
2025-03-02 410.28 54.28 74.76 104.54 202.85 861.98 1637.44 2374.29 3342.03
2025-03-09 439.27 58.11 80.04 111.93 217.18 922.88 1753.13 2542.04 3578.16
2025-03-16 461.47 61.05 84.08 117.59 228.15 969.53 1841.74 2670.53 3759.01
2025-03-23 474.76 62.81 86.50 120.97 234.73 997.46 1894.80 2747.46 3867.30
2025-03-30 477.76 63.21 87.05 121.74 236.21 1003.75 1906.74 2764.78 3891.68
2025-04-06 470.12 62.20 85.66 119.79 232.43 987.71 1876.28 2720.60 3829.50
2025-04-13 452.69 59.89 82.48 115.35 223.81 951.07 1806.68 2619.69 3687.46
2025-04-20 427.21 56.52 77.84 108.86 211.22 897.55 1705.01 2472.26 3479.94
2025-04-27 396.00 52.39 72.15 100.90 195.78 831.97 1580.44 2291.64 3225.69
2025-05-04 361.44 47.82 65.86 92.10 178.70 759.37 1442.53 2091.67 2944.21
2025-05-11 325.68 43.09 59.34 82.99 161.02 684.24 1299.80 1884.72 2652.91
2025-05-18 290.40 38.42 52.91 74.00 143.58 610.12 1159.01 1680.56 2365.54
2025-05-25 256.80 33.97 46.79 65.43 126.96 539.52 1024.88 1486.08 2091.80
2025-06-01 225.60 29.85 41.11 57.49 111.54 473.99 900.39 1305.57 1837.71
2025-06-08 197.20 26.09 35.93 50.25 97.50 414.32 787.05 1141.22 1606.38
2025-06-15 171.72 22.72 31.29 43.75 84.90 360.77 685.33 993.73 1398.77
2025-06-22 149.09 19.72 27.16 37.99 73.71 313.23 595.02 862.77 1214.43
2025-06-29 129.16 17.09 23.53 32.91 63.86 271.35 515.47 747.43 1052.07
2025-07-06 111.70 14.78 20.35 28.46 55.23 234.69 445.82 646.43 909.91
2025-07-13 96.49 12.77 17.58 24.59 47.71 202.72 385.10 558.39 785.99
2025-07-20 83.27 11.02 15.17 21.22 41.17 174.95 332.34 481.90 678.32
2025-07-27 71.82 9.50 13.09 18.30 35.51 150.88 286.62 415.60 584.99
2025-08-03 61.90 8.19 11.28 15.77 30.61 130.06 247.06 358.24 504.25
2025-08-10 53.34 7.06 9.72 13.59 26.37 112.06 212.88 308.67 434.49
2025-08-17 45.95 6.08 8.37 11.71 22.72 96.53 183.37 265.89 374.27
2025-08-24 39.57 5.24 7.21 10.08 19.56 83.14 157.93 228.99 322.33
2025-08-31 34.07 4.51 6.21 8.68 16.85 71.59 135.99 197.18 277.55
2025-09-07 29.34 3.88 5.35 7.48 14.50 61.64 117.09 169.77 238.97
2025-09-14 25.26 3.34 4.60 6.44 12.49 53.06 100.80 146.16 205.74
2025-09-21 21.74 2.88 3.96 5.54 10.75 45.68 86.78 125.83 177.11
2025-09-28 19.99 2.64 3.64 5.09 9.88 42.00 79.79 115.70 162.85
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