Prediction 2957

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Bahia

Description:

Validation test 3 for UF=BA (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2024-10-06 69.59 11.35 15.15 21.16 37.26 130.76 231.79 329.47 427.98
2024-10-13 82.63 13.48 17.99 25.12 44.24 155.27 275.23 391.22 508.19
2024-10-20 98.12 16.00 21.36 29.83 52.53 184.36 326.80 464.52 603.40
2024-10-27 116.49 19.00 25.37 35.41 62.37 218.89 388.01 551.52 716.41
2024-11-03 138.30 22.56 30.11 42.04 74.05 259.86 460.63 654.75 850.51
2024-11-10 164.17 26.77 35.75 49.91 87.90 308.47 546.79 777.22 1009.59
2024-11-17 194.84 31.78 42.42 59.23 104.32 366.10 648.95 922.42 1198.21
2024-11-24 231.18 37.70 50.34 70.28 123.78 434.39 770.00 1094.49 1421.72
2024-12-01 274.21 44.72 59.71 83.36 146.81 515.24 913.32 1298.20 1686.35
2024-12-08 325.09 53.02 70.79 98.82 174.06 610.84 1082.78 1539.09 1999.25
2024-12-15 385.15 62.81 83.86 117.08 206.21 723.69 1282.81 1823.41 2368.58
2024-12-22 455.86 74.35 99.26 138.58 244.07 856.56 1518.34 2158.19 2803.46
2024-12-29 538.83 87.88 117.33 163.80 288.49 1012.46 1794.69 2551.00 3313.71
2025-01-05 635.71 103.68 138.42 193.25 340.36 1194.49 2117.35 3009.64 3909.48
2025-01-12 748.04 122.00 162.88 227.40 400.51 1405.57 2491.50 3541.47 4600.31
2025-01-19 877.04 143.04 190.97 266.61 469.58 1647.97 2921.18 4152.22 5393.66
2025-01-26 1023.19 166.87 222.79 311.04 547.83 1922.58 3407.97 4844.15 6292.46
2025-02-02 1185.66 193.37 258.17 360.43 634.81 2227.85 3949.08 5613.30 7291.57
2025-02-09 1361.51 222.05 296.46 413.89 728.96 2558.28 4534.80 6445.85 8373.05
2025-02-16 1544.89 251.96 336.39 469.63 827.15 2902.85 5145.58 7314.03 9500.80
2025-02-23 1726.27 281.54 375.88 524.77 924.26 3243.66 5749.70 8172.74 10616.24
2025-03-02 1892.40 308.63 412.06 575.27 1013.20 3555.82 6303.04 8959.25 11637.91
2025-03-09 2027.46 330.66 441.47 616.33 1085.52 3809.61 6752.90 9598.70 12468.55
2025-03-16 2115.81 345.07 460.70 643.19 1132.82 3975.61 7047.16 10016.96 13011.86
2025-03-23 2145.76 349.96 467.22 652.29 1148.86 4031.88 7146.91 10158.75 13196.04
2025-03-30 2113.08 344.63 460.11 642.36 1131.36 3970.49 7038.08 10004.05 12995.09
2025-04-06 2022.39 329.83 440.36 614.79 1082.80 3800.07 6736.00 9574.67 12437.33
2025-04-13 1885.61 307.53 410.58 573.21 1009.57 3543.06 6280.42 8927.11 11596.16
2025-04-20 1718.48 280.27 374.19 522.41 920.09 3229.03 5723.78 8135.89 10568.38
2025-04-27 1536.76 250.63 334.62 467.16 822.80 2887.58 5118.52 7275.56 9450.82
2025-05-04 1353.54 220.75 294.72 411.47 724.70 2543.31 4508.27 6408.14 8324.06
2025-05-11 1178.18 192.15 256.54 358.16 630.81 2213.80 3924.18 5577.91 7245.61
2025-05-18 1016.39 165.77 221.31 308.98 544.19 1909.81 3385.32 4811.96 6250.65
2025-05-25 870.99 142.05 189.65 264.78 466.34 1636.60 2901.03 4123.58 5356.46
2025-06-01 742.74 121.14 161.73 225.79 397.67 1395.61 2473.86 3516.40 4567.74
2025-06-08 631.12 102.93 137.42 191.86 337.91 1185.87 2102.08 2987.93 3881.27
2025-06-15 534.89 87.24 116.47 162.60 286.38 1005.06 1781.57 2532.36 3289.49
2025-06-22 452.50 73.80 98.53 137.56 242.27 850.24 1507.13 2142.27 2782.77
2025-06-29 382.29 62.35 83.24 116.21 204.68 718.32 1273.28 1809.87 2350.99
2025-07-06 322.66 52.62 70.26 98.09 172.76 606.29 1074.70 1527.60 1984.33
2025-07-13 272.16 44.39 59.26 82.73 145.72 511.38 906.48 1288.48 1673.72
2025-07-20 229.45 37.42 49.96 69.75 122.85 431.13 764.22 1086.28 1411.05
2025-07-27 193.37 31.54 42.11 58.78 103.53 363.35 644.07 915.49 1189.20
2025-08-03 162.93 26.57 35.48 49.53 87.23 306.15 542.67 771.37 1001.99
2025-08-10 137.26 22.39 29.89 41.72 73.49 257.91 457.16 649.82 844.11
2025-08-17 115.61 18.86 25.17 35.15 61.90 217.24 385.08 547.36 711.01
2025-08-24 97.38 15.88 21.20 29.60 52.14 182.97 324.34 461.02 598.85
2025-08-31 82.01 13.38 17.86 24.93 43.91 154.10 273.16 388.27 504.35
2025-09-07 69.07 11.26 15.04 21.00 36.98 129.78 230.04 326.99 424.75
2025-09-14 58.16 9.49 12.66 17.68 31.14 109.29 193.73 275.37 357.70
2025-09-21 48.98 7.99 10.67 14.89 26.22 92.03 163.14 231.89 301.22
2025-09-28 58.61 9.56 12.76 17.82 31.38 110.12 195.20 277.46 360.42
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