Prediction 2958

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Ceará

Description:

Validation test 3 for UF=CE (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2024-10-06 65.81 13.07 17.37 23.15 37.43 116.00 191.73 256.92 341.67
2024-10-13 77.00 15.30 20.32 27.08 43.80 135.73 224.33 300.61 399.78
2024-10-20 90.09 17.90 23.77 31.68 51.24 158.79 262.45 351.69 467.71
2024-10-27 105.39 20.94 27.81 37.06 59.94 185.76 307.02 411.41 547.13
2024-11-03 123.26 24.49 32.53 43.35 70.10 217.26 359.09 481.20 639.94
2024-11-10 144.14 28.64 38.03 50.69 81.98 254.06 419.91 562.69 748.31
2024-11-17 168.50 33.47 44.46 59.26 95.83 296.99 490.87 657.78 874.77
2024-11-24 196.89 39.12 51.95 69.24 111.98 347.03 573.58 768.62 1022.17
2024-12-01 229.93 45.68 60.67 80.87 130.77 405.28 669.85 897.62 1193.73
2024-12-08 268.32 53.31 70.80 94.36 152.60 472.93 781.67 1047.46 1393.00
2024-12-15 312.77 62.14 82.53 110.00 177.89 551.29 911.18 1221.01 1623.81
2024-12-22 364.07 72.33 96.07 128.04 207.06 641.71 1060.63 1421.28 1890.14
2024-12-29 422.96 84.03 111.61 148.75 240.56 745.51 1232.18 1651.16 2195.86
2025-01-05 490.08 97.36 129.32 172.36 278.73 863.81 1427.72 1913.19 2544.33
2025-01-12 565.85 112.42 149.31 199.01 321.82 997.37 1648.45 2208.98 2937.70
2025-01-19 650.27 129.19 171.58 228.69 369.83 1146.16 1894.38 2538.53 3375.96
2025-01-26 742.65 147.54 195.96 261.19 422.38 1308.99 2163.51 2899.18 3855.58
2025-02-02 841.32 167.14 222.00 295.89 478.50 1482.91 2450.97 3284.38 4367.85
2025-02-09 943.27 187.40 248.90 331.74 536.48 1662.60 2747.96 3682.36 4897.12
2025-02-16 1043.88 207.38 275.45 367.13 593.70 1839.94 3041.07 4075.14 5419.48
2025-02-23 1136.98 225.88 300.01 399.87 646.65 2004.03 3312.28 4438.56 5902.79
2025-03-02 1215.23 241.43 320.66 427.39 691.15 2141.95 3540.24 4744.03 6309.03
2025-03-09 1271.21 252.55 335.43 447.07 722.99 2240.62 3703.31 4962.56 6599.65
2025-03-16 1298.84 258.04 342.72 456.79 738.70 2289.33 3783.82 5070.44 6743.12
2025-03-23 1294.89 257.25 341.68 455.40 736.46 2282.37 3772.31 5055.02 6722.61
2025-03-30 1259.83 250.29 332.43 443.07 716.52 2220.57 3670.17 4918.15 6540.59
2025-04-06 1197.71 237.95 316.04 421.23 681.19 2111.08 3489.21 4675.66 6218.10
2025-04-13 1115.09 221.53 294.24 392.17 634.20 1965.45 3248.52 4353.12 5789.16
2025-04-20 1019.49 202.54 269.01 358.55 579.83 1796.95 2970.01 3979.92 5292.84
2025-04-27 918.03 182.38 242.24 322.87 522.12 1618.12 2674.44 3583.83 4766.09
2025-05-04 816.53 162.22 215.46 287.17 464.39 1439.21 2378.74 3187.59 4239.13
2025-05-11 719.19 142.88 189.77 252.93 409.03 1267.63 2095.15 2807.57 3733.76
2025-05-18 628.66 124.89 165.88 221.09 357.54 1108.07 1831.42 2454.16 3263.76
2025-05-25 546.34 108.54 144.16 192.14 310.73 962.98 1591.62 2132.82 2836.41
2025-06-01 472.73 93.91 124.74 166.25 268.86 833.22 1377.16 1845.44 2454.22
2025-06-08 407.69 80.99 107.58 143.38 231.87 718.59 1187.68 1591.54 2116.57
2025-06-15 350.74 69.68 92.55 123.35 199.48 618.21 1021.78 1369.22 1820.90
2025-06-22 301.20 59.84 79.48 105.93 171.30 530.89 877.46 1175.82 1563.71
2025-06-29 258.31 51.32 68.16 90.85 146.91 455.29 752.51 1008.39 1341.05
2025-07-06 221.31 43.97 58.40 77.83 125.87 390.08 644.73 863.96 1148.97
2025-07-13 189.47 37.64 50.00 66.64 107.76 333.97 551.98 739.68 983.69
2025-07-20 162.13 32.21 42.78 57.02 92.21 285.77 472.33 632.94 841.74
2025-07-27 138.68 27.55 36.59 48.77 78.87 244.44 404.01 541.39 719.99
2025-08-03 118.59 23.56 31.29 41.71 67.45 209.03 345.48 462.96 615.68
2025-08-10 101.39 20.14 26.75 35.66 57.66 178.71 295.37 395.80 526.37
2025-08-17 86.67 17.22 22.87 30.48 49.29 152.76 252.48 338.34 449.95
2025-08-24 74.08 14.72 19.55 26.05 42.13 130.57 215.80 289.18 384.58
2025-08-31 63.31 12.58 16.71 22.27 36.01 111.59 184.44 247.15 328.68
2025-09-07 54.10 10.75 14.28 19.03 30.77 95.37 157.62 211.22 280.89
2025-09-14 46.24 9.19 12.20 16.26 26.30 81.50 134.70 180.50 240.04
2025-09-21 39.51 7.85 10.43 13.90 22.47 69.64 115.10 154.24 205.12
2025-09-28 56.24 11.17 14.84 19.78 31.99 99.14 163.85 219.57 292.00
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