Prediction 2959

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Distrito Federal

Description:

Validation test 3 for UF=DF (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2024-10-06 21.69 1.21 1.97 3.35 8.25 58.42 145.00 249.71 397.35
2024-10-13 25.49 1.42 2.32 3.94 9.70 68.68 170.47 293.57 467.14
2024-10-20 29.97 1.67 2.72 4.64 11.41 80.74 200.40 345.12 549.17
2024-10-27 35.23 1.96 3.20 5.45 13.41 94.91 235.58 405.71 645.59
2024-11-03 41.42 2.30 3.76 6.41 15.76 111.57 276.93 476.91 758.88
2024-11-10 48.68 2.71 4.42 7.53 18.53 131.14 325.51 560.57 892.01
2024-11-17 57.22 3.18 5.20 8.85 21.77 154.13 382.57 658.84 1048.38
2024-11-24 67.24 3.74 6.11 10.40 25.59 181.13 449.58 774.23 1232.00
2024-12-01 79.00 4.39 7.18 12.22 30.06 212.82 528.22 909.67 1447.52
2024-12-08 92.80 5.16 8.43 14.35 35.32 249.98 620.47 1068.54 1700.31
2024-12-15 108.96 6.05 9.90 16.86 41.47 293.53 728.57 1254.71 1996.56
2024-12-22 127.89 7.11 11.62 19.78 48.67 344.51 855.10 1472.60 2343.29
2024-12-29 150.00 8.33 13.63 23.20 57.08 404.07 1002.94 1727.20 2748.41
2025-01-05 175.77 9.77 15.97 27.19 66.89 473.50 1175.26 2023.97 3220.65
2025-01-12 205.71 11.43 18.69 31.82 78.29 554.17 1375.48 2368.76 3769.31
2025-01-19 240.35 13.36 21.83 37.18 91.47 647.46 1607.05 2767.56 4403.89
2025-01-26 280.16 15.57 25.45 43.34 106.62 754.70 1873.22 3225.95 5133.31
2025-02-02 325.53 18.09 29.57 50.36 123.88 876.92 2176.57 3748.35 5964.59
2025-02-09 376.62 20.93 34.21 58.26 143.33 1014.57 2518.24 4336.76 6900.89
2025-02-16 433.26 24.07 39.36 67.02 164.88 1167.13 2896.91 4988.88 7938.58
2025-02-23 494.65 27.49 44.93 76.52 188.25 1332.51 3307.39 5695.78 9063.45
2025-03-02 559.20 31.07 50.80 86.50 212.81 1506.41 3739.01 6439.08 10246.23
2025-03-09 624.28 34.69 56.71 96.57 237.58 1681.70 4174.11 7188.40 11438.58
2025-03-16 686.10 38.12 62.33 106.13 261.10 1848.25 4587.49 7900.28 12571.36
2025-03-23 739.95 41.12 67.22 114.46 281.60 1993.30 4947.52 8520.32 13558.00
2025-03-30 780.72 43.38 70.92 120.77 297.11 2103.13 5220.13 8989.78 14305.04
2025-04-06 803.90 44.67 73.03 124.36 305.93 2165.59 5375.14 9256.73 14729.83
2025-04-13 806.67 44.82 73.28 124.78 306.99 2173.05 5393.67 9288.64 14780.60
2025-04-20 788.68 43.82 71.64 122.00 300.14 2124.58 5273.36 9081.45 14450.91
2025-04-27 752.15 41.79 68.33 116.35 286.24 2026.18 5029.11 8660.82 13781.59
2025-05-04 701.25 38.97 63.70 108.48 266.87 1889.07 4688.81 8074.78 12849.03
2025-05-11 641.04 35.62 58.23 99.16 243.96 1726.87 4286.22 7381.46 11745.78
2025-05-18 576.41 32.03 52.36 89.17 219.36 1552.77 3854.09 6637.27 10561.59
2025-05-25 511.42 28.42 46.46 79.11 194.63 1377.69 3419.53 5888.90 9370.75
2025-06-01 449.00 24.95 40.79 69.46 170.87 1209.55 3002.19 5170.19 8227.09
2025-06-08 391.01 21.73 35.52 60.49 148.81 1053.33 2614.45 4502.44 7164.54
2025-06-15 338.42 18.80 30.74 52.35 128.79 911.65 2262.78 3896.82 6200.84
2025-06-22 291.55 16.20 26.48 45.10 110.95 785.38 1949.38 3357.10 5342.01
2025-06-29 250.31 13.91 22.74 38.72 95.26 674.29 1673.63 2882.22 4586.35
2025-07-06 214.35 11.91 19.47 33.16 81.58 577.44 1433.25 2468.25 3927.62
2025-07-13 183.23 10.18 16.64 28.34 69.73 493.59 1225.12 2109.82 3357.26
2025-07-20 156.41 8.69 14.21 24.19 59.52 421.34 1045.79 1800.99 2865.83
2025-07-27 133.38 7.41 12.12 20.63 50.76 359.31 891.82 1535.84 2443.91
2025-08-03 113.66 6.32 10.33 17.58 43.26 306.19 759.98 1308.79 2082.62
2025-08-10 96.81 5.38 8.79 14.98 36.84 260.79 647.29 1114.72 1773.80
2025-08-17 82.42 4.58 7.49 12.75 31.37 222.03 551.10 949.07 1510.21
2025-08-24 70.15 3.90 6.37 10.85 26.70 188.98 469.07 807.81 1285.43
2025-08-31 59.70 3.32 5.42 9.24 22.72 160.82 399.18 687.44 1093.89
2025-09-07 50.80 2.82 4.61 7.86 19.33 136.84 339.65 584.92 930.76
2025-09-14 43.22 2.40 3.93 6.69 16.45 116.42 288.97 497.64 791.87
2025-09-21 36.77 2.04 3.34 5.69 13.99 99.04 245.83 423.35 673.66
2025-09-28 18.45 1.02 1.68 2.85 7.02 49.69 123.34 212.40 337.99
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