Prediction 2963

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Minas Gerais

Description:

Validation test 3 for UF=MG (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2024-10-06 93.23 5.13 8.01 13.77 33.28 262.63 651.56 1111.62 1850.04
2024-10-13 115.09 6.33 9.89 17.00 41.08 324.19 804.28 1372.17 2283.66
2024-10-20 142.06 7.82 12.21 20.98 50.70 400.17 992.78 1693.77 2818.88
2024-10-27 175.35 9.65 15.07 25.90 62.59 493.95 1225.44 2090.71 3479.50
2024-11-03 216.44 11.91 18.60 31.97 77.25 609.69 1512.59 2580.61 4294.84
2024-11-10 267.15 14.70 22.96 39.46 95.35 752.53 1866.97 3185.21 5301.06
2024-11-17 329.72 18.15 28.34 48.70 117.68 928.79 2304.25 3931.26 6542.68
2024-11-24 406.92 22.40 34.97 60.10 145.24 1146.24 2843.73 4851.66 8074.48
2024-12-01 502.13 27.64 43.15 74.17 179.22 1414.44 3509.10 5986.83 9963.71
2024-12-08 619.50 34.10 53.24 91.50 221.11 1745.06 4329.35 7386.26 12292.74
2024-12-15 764.10 42.06 65.66 112.86 272.72 2152.38 5339.86 9110.28 15161.98
2024-12-22 942.05 51.85 80.96 139.15 336.23 2653.64 6583.45 11231.96 18693.03
2024-12-29 1160.69 63.89 99.75 171.44 414.27 3269.54 8111.45 13838.87 23031.63
2025-01-05 1428.70 78.64 122.78 211.03 509.92 4024.47 9984.37 17034.24 28349.59
2025-01-12 1755.99 96.66 150.91 259.37 626.74 4946.41 12271.63 20936.50 34844.01
2025-01-19 2153.45 118.53 185.06 318.08 768.60 6066.03 15049.29 25675.44 42730.89
2025-01-26 2632.05 144.88 226.19 388.77 939.42 7414.19 18393.97 31381.77 52227.76
2025-02-02 3200.98 176.19 275.08 472.81 1142.48 9016.80 22369.91 38165.08 63517.03
2025-02-09 3864.25 212.70 332.08 570.78 1379.21 10885.15 27005.13 46073.18 76678.24
2025-02-16 4615.11 254.03 396.61 681.68 1647.20 13000.23 32252.44 55025.57 91577.45
2025-02-23 5428.23 298.79 466.49 801.79 1937.42 15290.71 37934.94 64720.42 107712.30
2025-03-02 6251.39 344.10 537.23 923.37 2231.21 17609.44 43687.52 74534.83 124046.15
2025-03-09 7001.46 385.38 601.69 1034.16 2498.92 19722.31 48929.36 83477.89 138929.81
2025-03-16 7573.01 416.84 650.81 1118.59 2702.92 21332.31 52923.64 90292.48 150271.15
2025-03-23 7864.97 432.91 675.90 1161.71 2807.12 22154.72 54963.96 93773.46 156064.43
2025-03-30 7818.37 430.35 671.89 1154.83 2790.49 22023.45 54638.30 93217.86 155139.76
2025-04-06 7442.97 409.69 639.63 1099.38 2656.51 20965.99 52014.81 88741.95 147690.64
2025-04-13 6812.61 374.99 585.46 1006.27 2431.52 19190.34 47609.59 81226.25 135182.47
2025-04-20 6033.11 332.08 518.47 891.13 2153.31 16994.57 42162.08 71932.30 119714.82
2025-04-27 5205.74 286.54 447.37 768.92 1858.01 14663.98 36380.08 62067.70 103297.45
2025-05-04 4405.49 242.49 378.60 650.72 1572.38 12409.75 30787.54 52526.31 87418.00
2025-05-11 3676.64 202.37 315.96 543.06 1312.25 10356.67 25694.01 43836.29 72955.45
2025-05-18 3038.66 167.26 261.14 448.83 1084.54 8559.56 21235.53 36229.72 60296.07
2025-05-25 2494.72 137.32 214.39 368.49 890.40 7027.35 17434.26 29744.41 49502.76
2025-06-01 2038.98 112.23 175.22 301.17 727.74 5743.56 14249.29 24310.57 40459.38
2025-06-08 1661.49 91.45 142.78 245.41 593.01 4680.23 11611.25 19809.84 32968.94
2025-06-15 1351.19 74.37 116.12 199.58 482.26 3806.16 9442.75 16110.18 26811.70
2025-06-22 1097.40 60.40 94.31 162.09 391.68 3091.24 7669.11 13084.19 21775.63
2025-06-29 890.50 49.02 76.53 131.53 317.83 2508.43 6223.19 10617.32 17670.09
2025-07-06 722.19 39.75 62.06 106.67 257.76 2034.33 5046.99 8610.61 14330.39
2025-07-13 585.47 32.23 50.31 86.48 208.96 1649.21 4091.55 6980.55 11617.52
2025-07-20 474.52 26.12 40.78 70.09 169.36 1336.67 3316.16 5657.66 9415.88
2025-07-27 384.53 21.17 33.05 56.80 137.24 1083.18 2687.27 4584.73 7630.24
2025-08-03 311.57 17.15 26.78 46.02 111.21 877.67 2177.42 3714.88 6182.56
2025-08-10 252.44 13.90 21.69 37.29 90.10 711.10 1764.18 3009.85 5009.20
2025-08-17 204.52 11.26 17.58 30.21 73.00 576.12 1429.30 2438.51 4058.34
2025-08-24 165.69 9.12 14.24 24.47 59.14 466.74 1157.95 1975.57 3287.88
2025-08-31 134.24 7.39 11.54 19.83 47.91 378.13 938.10 1600.48 2663.63
2025-09-07 108.75 5.99 9.35 16.06 38.81 306.33 759.98 1296.59 2157.87
2025-09-14 88.10 4.85 7.57 13.01 31.44 248.16 615.67 1050.39 1748.14
2025-09-21 71.37 3.93 6.13 10.54 25.47 201.04 498.76 850.94 1416.19
2025-09-28 75.53 4.16 6.49 11.16 26.96 212.76 527.84 900.54 1498.74
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