Prediction 2969

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Piauí

Description:

Validation test 3 for UF=PI (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2024-10-06 10.26 2.17 2.75 3.70 5.99 17.72 29.01 38.26 49.71
2024-10-13 12.26 2.59 3.28 4.43 7.16 21.17 34.66 45.70 59.37
2024-10-20 14.64 3.09 3.92 5.29 8.55 25.28 41.40 54.59 70.92
2024-10-27 17.49 3.69 4.68 6.31 10.21 30.20 49.44 65.20 84.71
2024-11-03 20.89 4.41 5.59 7.54 12.20 36.06 59.05 77.87 101.17
2024-11-10 24.94 5.26 6.67 9.00 14.57 43.07 70.52 93.00 120.82
2024-11-17 29.78 6.29 7.97 10.75 17.39 51.42 84.20 111.04 144.26
2024-11-24 35.56 7.50 9.51 12.83 20.76 61.39 100.52 132.56 172.21
2024-12-01 42.43 8.96 11.35 15.32 24.78 73.26 119.96 158.20 205.52
2024-12-08 50.62 10.68 13.55 18.27 29.56 87.40 143.11 188.72 245.17
2024-12-15 60.35 12.74 16.15 21.78 35.24 104.19 170.61 224.99 292.29
2024-12-22 71.88 15.17 19.24 25.95 41.98 124.11 203.23 268.00 348.17
2024-12-29 85.52 18.05 22.89 30.87 49.95 147.66 241.79 318.85 414.23
2025-01-05 101.58 21.44 27.18 36.67 59.32 175.38 287.18 378.70 491.98
2025-01-12 120.35 25.40 32.21 43.44 70.28 207.80 340.25 448.69 582.91
2025-01-19 142.11 30.00 38.03 51.30 82.99 245.37 401.77 529.82 688.31
2025-01-26 167.01 35.25 44.69 60.29 97.53 288.37 472.18 622.67 808.93
2025-02-02 195.00 41.16 52.18 70.39 113.88 336.69 551.31 727.02 944.50
2025-02-09 225.67 47.63 60.39 81.46 131.79 389.64 638.01 841.35 1093.02
2025-02-16 258.07 54.47 69.06 93.16 150.71 445.58 729.62 962.15 1249.96
2025-02-23 290.58 61.33 77.76 104.89 169.70 501.71 821.52 1083.35 1407.41
2025-03-02 320.82 67.72 85.85 115.81 187.36 553.93 907.03 1196.10 1553.89
2025-03-09 345.85 73.00 92.55 124.84 201.98 597.15 977.79 1289.42 1675.13
2025-03-16 362.65 76.54 97.04 130.91 211.78 626.15 1025.28 1352.04 1756.48
2025-03-23 368.87 77.86 98.71 133.15 215.42 636.89 1042.87 1375.24 1786.61
2025-03-30 363.58 76.74 97.29 131.24 212.33 627.75 1027.91 1355.51 1760.99
2025-04-06 347.58 73.36 93.01 125.47 202.98 600.12 982.66 1295.85 1683.48
2025-04-13 323.11 68.20 86.46 116.63 188.69 557.88 913.49 1204.63 1564.97
2025-04-20 293.18 61.88 78.45 105.83 171.21 506.20 828.87 1093.04 1420.00
2025-04-27 260.76 55.04 69.78 94.13 152.28 450.22 737.21 972.16 1262.97
2025-05-04 228.28 48.18 61.09 82.40 133.31 394.14 645.38 851.06 1105.64
2025-05-11 197.42 41.67 52.83 71.26 115.29 340.87 558.15 736.04 956.21
2025-05-18 169.19 35.71 45.28 61.07 98.81 292.13 478.34 630.79 819.48
2025-05-25 144.03 30.40 38.54 51.99 84.11 248.68 407.20 536.98 697.61
2025-06-01 122.02 25.75 32.65 44.04 71.26 210.67 344.96 454.91 590.98
2025-06-08 103.01 21.74 27.56 37.18 60.16 177.85 291.22 384.03 498.91
2025-06-15 86.74 18.31 23.21 31.31 50.66 149.77 245.24 323.40 420.14
2025-06-22 72.92 15.39 19.51 26.32 42.58 125.90 206.15 271.86 353.18
2025-06-29 61.22 12.92 16.38 22.10 35.75 105.70 173.08 228.24 296.52
2025-07-06 51.35 10.84 13.74 18.54 29.99 88.67 145.19 191.46 248.73
2025-07-13 43.05 9.09 11.52 15.54 25.14 74.33 121.71 160.50 208.51
2025-07-20 36.07 7.61 9.65 13.02 21.07 62.29 101.99 134.49 174.72
2025-07-27 30.22 6.38 8.09 10.91 17.65 52.18 85.43 112.66 146.36
2025-08-03 25.31 5.34 6.77 9.14 14.78 43.70 71.55 94.36 122.58
2025-08-10 21.19 4.47 5.67 7.65 12.38 36.59 59.92 79.01 102.65
2025-08-17 17.75 3.75 4.75 6.41 10.36 30.64 50.17 66.16 85.95
2025-08-24 14.86 3.14 3.98 5.36 8.68 25.65 42.00 55.39 71.96
2025-08-31 12.44 2.63 3.33 4.49 7.26 21.48 35.17 46.37 60.24
2025-09-07 10.41 2.20 2.79 3.76 6.08 17.98 29.44 38.82 50.43
2025-09-14 8.72 1.84 2.33 3.15 5.09 15.05 24.64 32.50 42.22
2025-09-21 7.30 1.54 1.95 2.63 4.26 12.60 20.63 27.21 35.34
2025-09-28 8.59 1.81 2.30 3.10 5.02 14.83 24.29 32.03 41.61
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