Prediction 2970

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Paraná

Description:

Validation test 3 for UF=PR (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2024-10-06 25.52 0.46 0.87 1.92 6.58 102.14 350.39 755.99 1427.21
2024-10-13 31.90 0.58 1.09 2.40 8.22 127.65 437.91 944.81 1783.67
2024-10-20 39.86 0.72 1.37 3.00 10.28 159.53 547.28 1180.77 2229.15
2024-10-27 49.82 0.90 1.71 3.74 12.84 199.37 683.95 1475.65 2785.83
2024-11-03 62.26 1.12 2.13 4.68 16.05 249.15 854.72 1844.10 3481.42
2024-11-10 77.80 1.40 2.67 5.85 20.06 311.35 1068.09 2304.46 4350.51
2024-11-17 97.21 1.75 3.33 7.30 25.06 389.05 1334.63 2879.53 5436.17
2024-11-24 121.46 2.19 4.16 9.13 31.31 486.08 1667.50 3597.71 6792.00
2024-12-01 151.73 2.74 5.20 11.40 39.12 607.21 2083.03 4494.24 8484.54
2024-12-08 189.49 3.42 6.49 14.24 48.85 758.32 2601.41 5612.68 10596.00
2024-12-15 236.54 4.26 8.11 17.77 60.99 946.64 3247.44 7006.53 13227.40
2024-12-22 295.09 5.32 10.11 22.17 76.08 1180.95 4051.27 8740.83 16501.52
2024-12-29 367.77 6.63 12.60 27.63 94.82 1471.78 5048.95 10893.36 20565.23
2025-01-05 457.61 8.25 15.68 34.38 117.98 1831.34 6282.42 13554.64 25589.37
2025-01-12 568.02 10.24 19.46 42.68 146.45 2273.20 7798.22 16825.06 31763.49
2025-01-19 702.43 12.66 24.07 52.78 181.10 2811.10 9643.52 20806.39 39279.71
2025-01-26 863.69 15.57 29.60 64.89 222.68 3456.44 11857.35 25582.85 48297.04
2025-02-02 1052.82 18.98 36.08 79.10 271.44 4213.33 14453.88 31184.99 58873.14
2025-02-09 1267.02 22.84 43.42 95.20 326.66 5070.53 17394.50 37529.55 70850.83
2025-02-16 1496.81 26.98 51.29 112.46 385.91 5990.17 20549.32 44336.22 83700.92
2025-02-23 1723.33 31.07 59.05 129.48 444.31 6896.69 23659.15 51045.84 96367.81
2025-03-02 1917.82 34.57 65.72 144.09 494.45 7675.01 26329.19 56806.60 107243.35
2025-03-09 2046.61 36.90 70.13 153.77 527.65 8190.43 28097.34 60621.46 114445.32
2025-03-16 2082.49 37.54 71.36 156.47 536.91 8334.03 28589.95 61684.30 116451.80
2025-03-23 2017.15 36.36 69.12 151.56 520.06 8072.53 27692.89 59748.86 112797.95
2025-03-30 1865.49 33.63 63.93 140.16 480.96 7465.57 25610.70 55256.42 104316.82
2025-04-06 1658.04 29.89 56.82 124.58 427.47 6635.39 22762.76 49111.84 92716.67
2025-04-13 1427.96 25.74 48.93 107.29 368.15 5714.62 19604.04 42296.73 79850.64
2025-04-20 1201.29 21.66 41.17 90.26 309.71 4807.48 16492.10 35582.57 67175.19
2025-04-27 993.90 17.92 34.06 74.68 256.24 3977.51 13644.90 29439.57 55578.02
2025-05-04 812.96 14.66 27.86 61.08 209.60 3253.42 11160.87 24080.15 45460.15
2025-05-11 659.88 11.90 22.61 49.58 170.13 2640.82 9059.34 19546.00 36900.27
2025-05-18 532.93 9.61 18.26 40.04 137.40 2132.75 7316.43 15785.57 29801.08
2025-05-25 428.98 7.73 14.70 32.23 110.60 1716.76 5889.36 12706.59 23988.37
2025-06-01 344.57 6.21 11.81 25.89 88.84 1378.95 4730.50 10206.30 19268.14
2025-06-08 276.39 4.98 9.47 20.77 71.26 1106.08 3794.43 8186.67 15455.36
2025-06-15 221.50 3.99 7.59 16.64 57.11 886.42 3040.88 6560.86 12386.03
2025-06-22 177.41 3.20 6.08 13.33 45.74 709.98 2435.59 5254.92 9920.59
2025-06-29 142.04 2.56 4.87 10.67 36.62 568.45 1950.07 4207.38 7942.98
2025-07-06 113.70 2.05 3.90 8.54 29.31 455.03 1560.97 3367.87 6358.10
2025-07-13 91.00 1.64 3.12 6.84 23.46 364.18 1249.32 2695.47 5088.69
2025-07-20 72.82 1.31 2.50 5.47 18.78 291.44 999.79 2157.11 4072.33
2025-07-27 58.28 1.05 2.00 4.38 15.02 233.22 800.06 1726.16 3258.76
2025-08-03 46.63 0.84 1.60 3.50 12.02 186.62 640.20 1381.26 2607.63
2025-08-10 37.31 0.67 1.28 2.80 9.62 149.33 512.26 1105.24 2086.54
2025-08-17 29.86 0.54 1.02 2.24 7.70 119.48 409.89 884.36 1669.56
2025-08-24 23.89 0.43 0.82 1.79 6.16 95.61 327.97 707.62 1335.90
2025-08-31 19.12 0.34 0.66 1.44 4.93 76.50 262.43 566.20 1068.91
2025-09-07 15.29 0.28 0.52 1.15 3.94 61.21 209.98 453.04 855.27
2025-09-14 12.24 0.22 0.42 0.92 3.16 48.98 168.01 362.49 684.34
2025-09-21 9.79 0.18 0.34 0.74 2.52 39.19 134.43 290.04 547.56
2025-09-28 20.42 0.37 0.70 1.53 5.27 81.73 280.36 604.90 1141.97
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