Prediction 2971

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Rio de Janeiro

Description:

Validation test 3 for UF=RJ (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2024-10-06 53.05 2.23 3.83 6.79 17.99 160.65 419.60 758.86 1239.36
2024-10-13 63.85 2.69 4.61 8.17 21.66 193.36 505.04 913.37 1491.71
2024-10-20 76.85 3.24 5.55 9.84 26.07 232.72 607.85 1099.31 1795.38
2024-10-27 92.48 3.89 6.68 11.84 31.37 280.08 731.54 1323.01 2160.72
2024-11-03 111.29 4.69 8.04 14.24 37.75 337.04 880.33 1592.09 2600.19
2024-11-10 133.91 5.64 9.67 17.14 45.42 405.54 1059.25 1915.66 3128.64
2024-11-17 161.10 6.78 11.64 20.62 54.65 487.88 1274.30 2304.58 3763.82
2024-11-24 193.75 8.16 14.00 24.80 65.72 586.77 1532.60 2771.73 4526.76
2024-12-01 232.94 9.81 16.83 29.81 79.01 705.44 1842.56 3332.30 5442.28
2024-12-08 279.90 11.79 20.22 35.82 94.94 847.65 2214.00 4004.04 6539.36
2024-12-15 336.05 14.15 24.27 43.01 113.99 1017.72 2658.20 4807.38 7851.37
2024-12-22 403.02 16.97 29.11 51.58 136.71 1220.51 3187.87 5765.30 9415.84
2024-12-29 482.53 20.32 34.85 61.76 163.68 1461.30 3816.81 6902.74 11273.49
2025-01-05 576.37 24.27 41.63 73.77 195.51 1745.48 4559.07 8245.14 13465.89
2025-01-12 686.14 28.89 49.56 87.82 232.75 2077.94 5427.43 9815.57 16030.70
2025-01-19 812.96 34.23 58.72 104.05 275.76 2461.98 6430.51 11629.66 18993.45
2025-01-26 956.80 40.29 69.11 122.46 324.55 2897.60 7568.31 13687.38 22354.10
2025-02-02 1115.74 46.98 80.59 142.80 378.47 3378.96 8825.58 15961.17 26067.63
2025-02-09 1284.89 54.10 92.81 164.45 435.84 3891.21 10163.54 18380.89 30019.50
2025-02-16 1455.34 61.28 105.12 186.26 493.66 4407.41 11511.82 20819.27 34001.84
2025-02-23 1613.78 67.95 116.57 206.54 547.41 4887.23 12765.07 23085.80 37703.51
2025-03-02 1743.47 73.41 125.94 223.14 591.40 5279.99 13790.94 24941.09 40733.56
2025-03-09 1827.32 76.94 131.99 233.87 619.84 5533.92 14454.18 26140.57 42692.54
2025-03-16 1852.54 78.00 133.81 237.10 628.39 5610.29 14653.66 26501.33 43281.72
2025-03-23 1815.01 76.42 131.10 232.29 615.66 5496.63 14356.77 25964.40 42404.82
2025-03-30 1720.81 72.46 124.30 220.24 583.71 5211.36 13611.67 24616.88 40204.06
2025-04-06 1583.99 66.69 114.42 202.73 537.30 4797.00 12529.40 22659.58 37007.41
2025-04-13 1421.90 59.87 102.71 181.98 482.32 4306.14 11247.32 20340.91 33220.59
2025-04-20 1250.79 52.67 90.35 160.08 424.28 3787.93 9893.79 17893.04 29222.75
2025-04-27 1083.10 45.60 78.23 138.62 367.40 3280.10 8567.37 15494.20 25304.98
2025-05-04 926.88 39.03 66.95 118.63 314.40 2806.99 7331.65 13259.39 21655.11
2025-05-11 786.35 33.11 56.80 100.64 266.73 2381.40 6220.04 11249.02 18371.80
2025-05-18 662.97 27.91 47.89 84.85 224.88 2007.76 5244.12 9484.06 15489.27
2025-05-25 556.47 23.43 40.20 71.22 188.76 1685.24 4401.72 7960.57 13001.13
2025-06-01 465.62 19.61 33.63 59.59 157.94 1410.11 3683.09 6660.92 10878.55
2025-06-08 388.75 16.37 28.08 49.75 131.87 1177.31 3075.03 5561.23 9082.55
2025-06-15 324.07 13.65 23.41 41.48 109.93 981.44 2563.43 4636.00 7571.48
2025-06-22 269.87 11.36 19.49 34.54 91.54 817.28 2134.68 3860.60 6305.09
2025-06-29 224.57 9.46 16.22 28.74 76.17 680.09 1776.33 3212.52 5246.65
2025-07-06 186.77 7.86 13.49 23.90 63.35 565.63 1477.38 2671.86 4363.66
2025-07-13 155.29 6.54 11.22 19.87 52.67 470.27 1228.31 2221.41 3627.99
2025-07-20 129.07 5.43 9.32 16.52 43.78 390.89 1020.98 1846.46 3015.61
2025-07-27 107.27 4.52 7.75 13.73 36.39 324.86 848.50 1534.53 2506.18
2025-08-03 89.14 3.75 6.44 11.41 30.24 269.95 705.08 1275.15 2082.56
2025-08-10 74.06 3.12 5.35 9.48 25.12 224.30 585.85 1059.52 1730.40
2025-08-17 61.54 2.59 4.44 7.88 20.87 186.36 486.76 880.31 1437.72
2025-08-24 51.13 2.15 3.69 6.54 17.34 154.83 404.41 731.39 1194.49
2025-08-31 42.48 1.79 3.07 5.44 14.41 128.64 335.99 607.64 992.39
2025-09-07 35.29 1.49 2.55 4.52 11.97 106.87 279.13 504.82 824.46
2025-09-14 29.32 1.23 2.12 3.75 9.94 88.78 231.90 419.39 684.95
2025-09-21 24.36 1.03 1.76 3.12 8.26 73.76 192.65 348.42 569.03
2025-09-28 44.07 1.86 3.18 5.64 14.95 133.47 348.61 630.47 1029.67
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