Prediction 2975

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Rio Grande do Sul

Description:

Validation test 3 for UF=RS (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2024-10-06 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 1.40 6.98 17.77 39.67
2024-10-13 0.36 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.07 1.91 9.52 24.21 54.05
2024-10-20 0.49 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.09 2.60 12.97 32.99 73.65
2024-10-27 0.67 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.13 3.54 17.67 44.95 100.35
2024-11-03 0.91 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.17 4.82 24.07 61.25 136.73
2024-11-10 1.24 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.23 6.57 32.80 83.45 186.30
2024-11-17 1.69 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.32 8.95 44.69 113.70 253.84
2024-11-24 2.30 0.02 0.04 0.10 0.43 12.20 60.89 154.92 345.85
2024-12-01 3.14 0.02 0.05 0.14 0.59 16.62 82.96 211.08 471.23
2024-12-08 4.28 0.03 0.07 0.19 0.80 22.65 113.03 287.59 642.02
2024-12-15 5.83 0.04 0.10 0.26 1.10 30.85 154.00 391.80 874.68
2024-12-22 7.94 0.06 0.14 0.35 1.49 42.03 209.78 533.73 1191.53
2024-12-29 10.81 0.08 0.19 0.48 2.03 57.25 285.72 726.94 1622.85
2025-01-05 14.72 0.11 0.26 0.65 2.77 77.94 389.01 989.73 2209.53
2025-01-12 20.03 0.15 0.35 0.89 3.76 106.05 529.30 1346.67 3006.38
2025-01-19 27.22 0.20 0.47 1.20 5.12 144.12 719.33 1830.15 4085.72
2025-01-26 36.91 0.27 0.64 1.63 6.94 195.44 975.44 2481.74 5540.36
2025-02-02 49.84 0.37 0.87 2.20 9.37 263.95 1317.39 3351.74 7482.59
2025-02-09 66.82 0.50 1.17 2.95 12.56 353.87 1766.16 4493.52 10031.57
2025-02-16 88.41 0.66 1.54 3.91 16.62 468.19 2336.78 5945.31 13272.61
2025-02-23 114.32 0.85 1.99 5.05 21.49 605.39 3021.51 7687.43 17161.82
2025-03-02 142.29 1.06 2.48 6.29 26.74 753.49 3760.72 9568.16 21360.44
2025-03-09 167.04 1.24 2.91 7.38 31.40 884.57 4414.95 11232.66 25076.37
2025-03-16 181.08 1.34 3.16 8.00 34.03 958.89 4785.84 12176.31 27183.02
2025-03-23 178.85 1.33 3.12 7.90 33.62 947.09 4726.97 12026.53 26848.63
2025-03-30 161.30 1.20 2.81 7.13 30.32 854.18 4263.27 10846.77 24214.88
2025-04-06 135.03 1.00 2.36 5.97 25.38 715.06 3568.90 9080.13 20270.95
2025-04-13 107.22 0.80 1.87 4.74 20.15 567.81 2833.96 7210.25 16096.53
2025-04-20 82.33 0.61 1.44 3.64 15.47 435.97 2175.96 5536.15 12359.17
2025-04-27 61.96 0.46 1.08 2.74 11.65 328.13 1637.72 4166.75 9302.06
2025-05-04 46.11 0.34 0.80 2.04 8.67 244.18 1218.71 3100.68 6922.11
2025-05-11 34.10 0.25 0.59 1.51 6.41 180.56 901.20 2292.86 5118.70
2025-05-18 25.13 0.19 0.44 1.11 4.72 133.06 664.11 1689.66 3772.09
2025-05-25 18.48 0.14 0.32 0.82 3.47 97.87 488.48 1242.82 2774.53
2025-06-01 13.58 0.10 0.24 0.60 2.55 71.92 358.94 913.22 2038.72
2025-06-08 9.97 0.07 0.17 0.44 1.87 52.81 263.60 670.66 1497.22
2025-06-15 7.32 0.05 0.13 0.32 1.38 38.78 193.53 492.38 1099.22
2025-06-22 5.38 0.04 0.09 0.24 1.01 28.46 142.06 361.44 806.89
2025-06-29 3.95 0.03 0.07 0.17 0.74 20.89 104.27 265.29 592.26
2025-07-06 2.90 0.02 0.05 0.13 0.54 15.33 76.53 194.72 434.69
2025-07-13 2.13 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.40 11.25 56.17 142.91 319.04
2025-07-20 1.56 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.29 8.26 41.23 104.89 234.16
2025-07-27 1.14 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.22 6.06 30.26 76.98 171.85
2025-08-03 0.84 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.16 4.45 22.21 56.50 126.13
2025-08-10 0.62 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.12 3.27 16.30 41.46 92.57
2025-08-17 0.45 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.09 2.40 11.96 30.43 67.94
2025-08-24 0.33 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.06 1.76 8.78 22.33 49.86
2025-08-31 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 1.29 6.44 16.39 36.59
2025-09-07 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.95 4.73 12.03 26.86
2025-09-14 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.70 3.47 8.83 19.71
2025-09-21 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.51 2.55 6.48 14.47
2025-09-28 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 1.03 5.13 13.04 29.11
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