Prediction 2976

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Model LNCC-SURGE-2025-1
Author Americo Cunha Jr
ADM 1 Santa Catarina

Description:

Validation test 3 for UF=SC (Model1 AR_p)


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2024-10-06 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.07 3.99 26.13 78.19 183.27
2024-10-13 0.66 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.09 5.30 34.73 103.94 243.62
2024-10-20 0.88 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.12 7.05 46.17 138.17 323.85
2024-10-27 1.17 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.16 9.37 61.38 183.67 430.50
2024-11-03 1.55 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.21 12.46 81.59 244.15 572.27
2024-11-10 2.07 0.01 0.01 0.04 0.28 16.56 108.46 324.55 760.72
2024-11-17 2.75 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.37 22.02 144.17 431.42 1011.22
2024-11-24 3.65 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.49 29.27 191.64 573.48 1344.20
2024-12-01 4.85 0.01 0.03 0.10 0.65 38.90 254.74 762.30 1786.77
2024-12-08 6.45 0.02 0.04 0.13 0.87 51.71 338.60 1013.24 2374.95
2024-12-15 8.57 0.02 0.05 0.17 1.15 68.73 450.02 1346.68 3156.51
2024-12-22 11.39 0.03 0.07 0.23 1.53 91.33 598.04 1789.60 4194.70
2024-12-29 15.13 0.04 0.10 0.31 2.04 121.34 794.54 2377.64 5573.02
2025-01-05 20.10 0.05 0.13 0.41 2.70 161.14 1055.17 3157.56 7401.09
2025-01-12 26.67 0.07 0.17 0.54 3.59 213.84 1400.24 4190.17 9821.45
2025-01-19 35.34 0.09 0.23 0.71 4.76 283.40 1855.71 5553.15 13016.18
2025-01-26 46.73 0.12 0.30 0.94 6.29 374.71 2453.66 7342.48 17210.24
2025-02-02 61.54 0.16 0.39 1.24 8.28 493.46 3231.19 9669.22 22663.95
2025-02-09 80.47 0.21 0.51 1.62 10.83 645.30 4225.45 12644.51 29637.82
2025-02-16 103.99 0.28 0.67 2.10 13.99 833.85 5460.10 16339.17 38297.81
2025-02-23 131.73 0.35 0.84 2.66 17.72 1056.32 6916.86 20698.45 48515.65
2025-03-02 161.67 0.43 1.03 3.26 21.75 1296.44 8489.18 25403.56 59544.09
2025-03-09 189.26 0.50 1.21 3.82 25.46 1517.60 9937.37 29737.23 69701.89
2025-03-16 207.75 0.55 1.33 4.19 27.95 1665.88 10908.29 32642.68 76512.06
2025-03-23 211.15 0.56 1.35 4.26 28.41 1693.17 11087.01 33177.48 77765.60
2025-03-30 198.23 0.52 1.27 4.00 26.67 1589.53 10408.37 31146.67 73005.53
2025-04-06 173.46 0.46 1.11 3.50 23.34 1390.92 9107.81 27254.81 63883.29
2025-04-13 143.76 0.38 0.92 2.90 19.34 1152.82 7548.72 22589.27 52947.61
2025-04-20 114.76 0.30 0.73 2.32 15.44 920.22 6025.64 18031.50 42264.53
2025-04-27 89.42 0.24 0.57 1.80 12.03 717.04 4695.23 14050.32 32932.92
2025-05-04 68.66 0.18 0.44 1.39 9.24 550.56 3605.13 10788.22 25286.81
2025-05-11 52.26 0.14 0.33 1.05 7.03 419.08 2744.14 8211.73 19247.70
2025-05-18 39.58 0.10 0.25 0.80 5.33 317.38 2078.25 6219.08 14577.07
2025-05-25 29.89 0.08 0.19 0.60 4.02 239.67 1569.38 4696.32 11007.84
2025-06-01 22.53 0.06 0.14 0.45 3.03 180.69 1183.16 3540.56 8298.80
2025-06-08 16.97 0.04 0.11 0.34 2.28 136.09 891.14 2666.71 6250.58
2025-06-15 12.78 0.03 0.08 0.26 1.72 102.45 670.84 2007.47 4705.36
2025-06-22 9.61 0.03 0.06 0.19 1.29 77.10 504.85 1510.74 3541.07
2025-06-29 7.23 0.02 0.05 0.15 0.97 58.01 379.86 1136.73 2664.41
2025-07-06 5.44 0.01 0.03 0.11 0.73 43.65 285.79 855.23 2004.59
2025-07-13 4.09 0.01 0.03 0.08 0.55 32.84 215.01 643.40 1508.09
2025-07-20 3.08 0.01 0.02 0.06 0.41 24.70 161.75 484.03 1134.53
2025-07-27 2.32 0.01 0.01 0.05 0.31 18.58 121.68 364.13 853.48
2025-08-03 1.74 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.23 13.98 91.54 273.92 642.05
2025-08-10 1.31 0.00 0.01 0.03 0.18 10.52 68.86 206.06 483.00
2025-08-17 0.99 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.13 7.91 51.80 155.01 363.34
2025-08-24 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.10 5.95 38.97 116.61 273.33
2025-08-31 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.08 4.48 29.31 87.72 205.62
2025-09-07 0.42 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.06 3.37 22.05 65.99 154.68
2025-09-14 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.04 2.53 16.59 49.64 116.36
2025-09-21 0.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 1.91 12.48 37.34 87.53
2025-09-28 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 3.00 19.66 58.82 137.87
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