Prediction 3522
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Alagoas |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=AL (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 839.0 | 295.0 | 354.0 | 433.0 | 597.0 | 1164.0 | 1839.0 | 1839.0 | 2129.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 880.0 | 304.0 | 366.0 | 449.0 | 622.0 | 1230.0 | 1963.0 | 1963.0 | 2279.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 762.0 | 248.0 | 302.0 | 376.0 | 530.0 | 1078.0 | 1746.0 | 1746.0 | 2036.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 757.0 | 239.0 | 293.0 | 367.0 | 523.0 | 1079.0 | 1767.0 | 1767.0 | 2068.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 757.0 | 232.0 | 287.0 | 361.0 | 518.0 | 1087.0 | 1798.0 | 1798.0 | 2110.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 726.0 | 214.0 | 267.0 | 339.0 | 492.0 | 1051.0 | 1758.0 | 1758.0 | 2070.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 669.0 | 187.0 | 237.0 | 304.0 | 448.0 | 979.0 | 1656.0 | 1656.0 | 1957.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 658.0 | 178.0 | 227.0 | 294.0 | 437.0 | 970.0 | 1657.0 | 1657.0 | 1964.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 644.0 | 169.0 | 217.0 | 282.0 | 424.0 | 957.0 | 1649.0 | 1649.0 | 1960.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 625.0 | 158.0 | 204.0 | 269.0 | 408.0 | 935.0 | 1628.0 | 1628.0 | 1941.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 527.0 | 119.0 | 160.0 | 215.0 | 337.0 | 799.0 | 1412.0 | 1412.0 | 1690.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 467.0 | 96.0 | 132.0 | 183.0 | 293.0 | 718.0 | 1286.0 | 1286.0 | 1545.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 554.0 | 122.0 | 164.0 | 223.0 | 351.0 | 848.0 | 1517.0 | 1517.0 | 1823.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 595.0 | 133.0 | 178.0 | 240.0 | 377.0 | 912.0 | 1639.0 | 1639.0 | 1973.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 589.0 | 128.0 | 172.0 | 234.0 | 371.0 | 909.0 | 1645.0 | 1645.0 | 1984.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 564.0 | 117.0 | 159.0 | 219.0 | 352.0 | 876.0 | 1599.0 | 1599.0 | 1934.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 563.0 | 114.0 | 156.0 | 216.0 | 349.0 | 879.0 | 1615.0 | 1615.0 | 1957.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 623.0 | 130.0 | 176.0 | 242.0 | 387.0 | 971.0 | 1789.0 | 1789.0 | 2170.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 614.0 | 125.0 | 171.0 | 235.0 | 380.0 | 963.0 | 1785.0 | 1785.0 | 2171.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 598.0 | 117.0 | 162.0 | 225.0 | 367.0 | 944.0 | 1761.0 | 1761.0 | 2146.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 633.0 | 125.0 | 172.0 | 239.0 | 388.0 | 1000.0 | 1872.0 | 1872.0 | 2284.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 628.0 | 121.0 | 168.0 | 234.0 | 383.0 | 997.0 | 1877.0 | 1877.0 | 2294.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 614.0 | 115.0 | 161.0 | 226.0 | 372.0 | 980.0 | 1857.0 | 1857.0 | 2273.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 631.0 | 118.0 | 165.0 | 231.0 | 382.0 | 1009.0 | 1920.0 | 1920.0 | 2354.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 642.0 | 119.0 | 166.0 | 234.0 | 387.0 | 1029.0 | 1967.0 | 1967.0 | 2415.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 710.0 | 137.0 | 189.0 | 262.0 | 431.0 | 1138.0 | 2177.0 | 2177.0 | 2675.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 758.0 | 148.0 | 203.0 | 281.0 | 460.0 | 1214.0 | 2328.0 | 2328.0 | 2864.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 866.0 | 177.0 | 239.0 | 327.0 | 528.0 | 1385.0 | 2656.0 | 2656.0 | 3270.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 892.0 | 182.0 | 245.0 | 336.0 | 544.0 | 1430.0 | 2753.0 | 2753.0 | 3392.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 977.0 | 203.0 | 272.0 | 371.0 | 597.0 | 1566.0 | 3020.0 | 3020.0 | 3724.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 1024.0 | 214.0 | 286.0 | 388.0 | 625.0 | 1644.0 | 3179.0 | 3179.0 | 3925.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 1096.0 | 231.0 | 307.0 | 417.0 | 669.0 | 1760.0 | 3411.0 | 3411.0 | 4215.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 1029.0 | 210.0 | 282.0 | 385.0 | 624.0 | 1662.0 | 3239.0 | 3239.0 | 4009.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 998.0 | 199.0 | 269.0 | 369.0 | 602.0 | 1617.0 | 3167.0 | 3167.0 | 3926.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 983.0 | 193.0 | 262.0 | 361.0 | 590.0 | 1597.0 | 3142.0 | 3142.0 | 3899.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 1012.0 | 199.0 | 269.0 | 371.0 | 608.0 | 1648.0 | 3252.0 | 3252.0 | 4040.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 961.0 | 183.0 | 250.0 | 347.0 | 573.0 | 1571.0 | 3115.0 | 3115.0 | 3877.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 908.0 | 166.0 | 229.0 | 321.0 | 537.0 | 1495.0 | 2987.0 | 2987.0 | 3725.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 906.0 | 162.0 | 226.0 | 318.0 | 534.0 | 1499.0 | 3012.0 | 3012.0 | 3763.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 926.0 | 164.0 | 229.0 | 323.0 | 543.0 | 1536.0 | 3102.0 | 3102.0 | 3882.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 859.0 | 144.0 | 204.0 | 292.0 | 499.0 | 1435.0 | 2920.0 | 2920.0 | 3662.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 798.0 | 126.0 | 183.0 | 265.0 | 459.0 | 1342.0 | 2752.0 | 2752.0 | 3459.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 747.0 | 111.0 | 164.0 | 242.0 | 425.0 | 1265.0 | 2614.0 | 2614.0 | 3293.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 696.0 | 97.0 | 146.0 | 219.0 | 392.0 | 1188.0 | 2474.0 | 2474.0 | 3122.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 677.0 | 90.0 | 138.0 | 209.0 | 378.0 | 1160.0 | 2430.0 | 2430.0 | 3072.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 623.0 | 75.0 | 120.0 | 186.0 | 344.0 | 1077.0 | 2273.0 | 2273.0 | 2879.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 571.0 | 61.0 | 103.0 | 164.0 | 311.0 | 997.0 | 2121.0 | 2121.0 | 2693.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 546.0 | 54.0 | 94.0 | 153.0 | 294.0 | 959.0 | 2054.0 | 2054.0 | 2613.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 510.0 | 44.0 | 82.0 | 137.0 | 271.0 | 902.0 | 1948.0 | 1948.0 | 2483.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 503.0 | 41.0 | 78.0 | 133.0 | 266.0 | 894.0 | 1940.0 | 1940.0 | 2476.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 476.0 | 34.0 | 69.0 | 122.0 | 249.0 | 852.0 | 1862.0 | 1862.0 | 2381.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 409.0 | 17.0 | 48.0 | 95.0 | 207.0 | 743.0 | 1643.0 | 1643.0 | 2108.0 |
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