Prediction 3525
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Bahia |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=BA (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 164.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 36.0 | 86.0 | 275.0 | 521.0 | 521.0 | 632.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 165.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 34.0 | 85.0 | 279.0 | 535.0 | 535.0 | 651.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 173.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 37.0 | 90.0 | 294.0 | 566.0 | 566.0 | 690.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 178.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 37.0 | 92.0 | 303.0 | 588.0 | 588.0 | 719.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 194.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 43.0 | 102.0 | 329.0 | 639.0 | 639.0 | 782.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 202.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 46.0 | 106.0 | 344.0 | 671.0 | 671.0 | 822.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 224.0 | 5.0 | 25.0 | 55.0 | 119.0 | 377.0 | 736.0 | 736.0 | 902.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 241.0 | 8.0 | 30.0 | 61.0 | 130.0 | 405.0 | 791.0 | 791.0 | 971.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 251.0 | 10.0 | 33.0 | 65.0 | 136.0 | 423.0 | 828.0 | 828.0 | 1019.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 243.0 | 6.0 | 28.0 | 60.0 | 129.0 | 414.0 | 818.0 | 818.0 | 1009.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 208.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 42.0 | 105.0 | 364.0 | 734.0 | 734.0 | 908.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 172.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 80.0 | 311.0 | 644.0 | 644.0 | 801.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 341.0 | 32.0 | 60.0 | 100.0 | 191.0 | 568.0 | 1114.0 | 1114.0 | 1374.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 407.0 | 50.0 | 82.0 | 128.0 | 233.0 | 670.0 | 1308.0 | 1308.0 | 1613.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 474.0 | 68.0 | 105.0 | 157.0 | 276.0 | 776.0 | 1510.0 | 1510.0 | 1861.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 547.0 | 88.0 | 129.0 | 188.0 | 323.0 | 891.0 | 1729.0 | 1729.0 | 2132.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 671.0 | 122.0 | 171.0 | 241.0 | 402.0 | 1084.0 | 2096.0 | 2096.0 | 2583.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 751.0 | 142.0 | 197.0 | 274.0 | 453.0 | 1211.0 | 2342.0 | 2342.0 | 2889.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 911.0 | 186.0 | 250.0 | 342.0 | 554.0 | 1461.0 | 2820.0 | 2820.0 | 3478.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 973.0 | 201.0 | 269.0 | 367.0 | 593.0 | 1563.0 | 3021.0 | 3021.0 | 3729.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 1087.0 | 230.0 | 306.0 | 414.0 | 664.0 | 1744.0 | 3373.0 | 3373.0 | 4166.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 1198.0 | 259.0 | 341.0 | 460.0 | 734.0 | 1921.0 | 3720.0 | 3720.0 | 4598.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 1300.0 | 284.0 | 373.0 | 501.0 | 797.0 | 2085.0 | 4044.0 | 4044.0 | 5002.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 1282.0 | 277.0 | 364.0 | 491.0 | 784.0 | 2061.0 | 4013.0 | 4013.0 | 4968.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 1322.0 | 285.0 | 375.0 | 505.0 | 807.0 | 2128.0 | 4152.0 | 4152.0 | 5145.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 1463.0 | 321.0 | 420.0 | 563.0 | 896.0 | 2355.0 | 4599.0 | 4599.0 | 5702.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 1453.0 | 316.0 | 414.0 | 556.0 | 887.0 | 2343.0 | 4590.0 | 4590.0 | 5695.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 1457.0 | 315.0 | 413.0 | 556.0 | 888.0 | 2354.0 | 4622.0 | 4622.0 | 5741.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 1435.0 | 307.0 | 404.0 | 544.0 | 872.0 | 2323.0 | 4574.0 | 4574.0 | 5686.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 1440.0 | 307.0 | 404.0 | 545.0 | 874.0 | 2336.0 | 4610.0 | 4610.0 | 5734.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 1427.0 | 301.0 | 398.0 | 537.0 | 864.0 | 2319.0 | 4589.0 | 4589.0 | 5713.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 1264.0 | 257.0 | 343.0 | 468.0 | 760.0 | 2064.0 | 4104.0 | 4104.0 | 5115.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 1064.0 | 203.0 | 277.0 | 383.0 | 633.0 | 1749.0 | 3499.0 | 3499.0 | 4367.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 982.0 | 181.0 | 249.0 | 348.0 | 580.0 | 1622.0 | 3257.0 | 3257.0 | 4070.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 848.0 | 145.0 | 205.0 | 291.0 | 495.0 | 1409.0 | 2848.0 | 2848.0 | 3565.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 678.0 | 101.0 | 149.0 | 221.0 | 388.0 | 1141.0 | 2329.0 | 2329.0 | 2921.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 534.0 | 63.0 | 103.0 | 161.0 | 297.0 | 912.0 | 1884.0 | 1884.0 | 2369.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 500.0 | 53.0 | 90.0 | 145.0 | 275.0 | 860.0 | 1788.0 | 1788.0 | 2252.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 498.0 | 51.0 | 89.0 | 144.0 | 273.0 | 860.0 | 1796.0 | 1796.0 | 2265.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 448.0 | 38.0 | 72.0 | 122.0 | 241.0 | 782.0 | 1647.0 | 1647.0 | 2082.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 385.0 | 21.0 | 51.0 | 96.0 | 201.0 | 683.0 | 1457.0 | 1457.0 | 1846.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 348.0 | 11.0 | 39.0 | 80.0 | 177.0 | 625.0 | 1346.0 | 1346.0 | 1710.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 312.0 | 2.0 | 27.0 | 65.0 | 155.0 | 568.0 | 1237.0 | 1237.0 | 1574.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 276.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 50.0 | 132.0 | 510.0 | 1124.0 | 1124.0 | 1435.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 242.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 36.0 | 110.0 | 456.0 | 1020.0 | 1020.0 | 1306.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 226.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 100.0 | 430.0 | 970.0 | 970.0 | 1244.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 205.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 87.0 | 398.0 | 908.0 | 908.0 | 1167.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 193.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 79.0 | 379.0 | 871.0 | 871.0 | 1121.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 183.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 73.0 | 363.0 | 842.0 | 842.0 | 1086.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 175.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 68.0 | 351.0 | 818.0 | 818.0 | 1057.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 173.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 66.0 | 349.0 | 815.0 | 815.0 | 1054.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 159.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 57.0 | 326.0 | 771.0 | 771.0 | 999.0 |
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Interval Bounds
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