Prediction 3526
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Ceará |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=CE (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 278.0 | 42.0 | 66.0 | 99.0 | 170.0 | 428.0 | 757.0 | 757.0 | 903.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 254.0 | 30.0 | 53.0 | 84.0 | 151.0 | 398.0 | 717.0 | 717.0 | 859.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 237.0 | 22.0 | 43.0 | 73.0 | 137.0 | 378.0 | 691.0 | 691.0 | 831.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 248.0 | 24.0 | 46.0 | 77.0 | 144.0 | 397.0 | 729.0 | 729.0 | 879.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 258.0 | 25.0 | 48.0 | 80.0 | 149.0 | 414.0 | 766.0 | 766.0 | 925.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 247.0 | 19.0 | 42.0 | 73.0 | 140.0 | 401.0 | 750.0 | 750.0 | 910.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 271.0 | 25.0 | 49.0 | 83.0 | 155.0 | 438.0 | 821.0 | 821.0 | 996.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 267.0 | 23.0 | 46.0 | 79.0 | 152.0 | 436.0 | 823.0 | 823.0 | 1001.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 272.0 | 23.0 | 47.0 | 80.0 | 154.0 | 446.0 | 846.0 | 846.0 | 1031.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 255.0 | 15.0 | 38.0 | 70.0 | 141.0 | 423.0 | 812.0 | 812.0 | 992.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 211.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 48.0 | 110.0 | 359.0 | 705.0 | 705.0 | 867.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 164.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 25.0 | 78.0 | 291.0 | 590.0 | 590.0 | 730.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 258.0 | 12.0 | 35.0 | 68.0 | 140.0 | 433.0 | 845.0 | 845.0 | 1039.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 291.0 | 22.0 | 47.0 | 82.0 | 162.0 | 485.0 | 943.0 | 943.0 | 1159.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 355.0 | 40.0 | 69.0 | 111.0 | 203.0 | 582.0 | 1122.0 | 1122.0 | 1377.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 395.0 | 51.0 | 83.0 | 128.0 | 229.0 | 644.0 | 1239.0 | 1239.0 | 1521.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 495.0 | 80.0 | 118.0 | 172.0 | 294.0 | 797.0 | 1522.0 | 1522.0 | 1866.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 558.0 | 97.0 | 139.0 | 199.0 | 335.0 | 895.0 | 1706.0 | 1706.0 | 2092.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 653.0 | 124.0 | 172.0 | 241.0 | 396.0 | 1042.0 | 1981.0 | 1981.0 | 2429.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 691.0 | 134.0 | 184.0 | 256.0 | 420.0 | 1104.0 | 2101.0 | 2101.0 | 2578.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 779.0 | 158.0 | 214.0 | 294.0 | 476.0 | 1241.0 | 2360.0 | 2360.0 | 2897.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 891.0 | 189.0 | 252.0 | 343.0 | 548.0 | 1415.0 | 2690.0 | 2690.0 | 3302.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 993.0 | 216.0 | 286.0 | 386.0 | 613.0 | 1575.0 | 2994.0 | 2994.0 | 3676.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 976.0 | 210.0 | 278.0 | 377.0 | 601.0 | 1553.0 | 2963.0 | 2963.0 | 3642.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 1106.0 | 245.0 | 322.0 | 432.0 | 684.0 | 1756.0 | 3349.0 | 3349.0 | 4117.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 1454.0 | 342.0 | 441.0 | 583.0 | 908.0 | 2295.0 | 4363.0 | 4363.0 | 5363.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 1563.0 | 370.0 | 476.0 | 628.0 | 977.0 | 2468.0 | 4698.0 | 4698.0 | 5778.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 1670.0 | 398.0 | 511.0 | 673.0 | 1044.0 | 2638.0 | 5029.0 | 5029.0 | 6189.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 1688.0 | 401.0 | 515.0 | 678.0 | 1054.0 | 2671.0 | 5103.0 | 5103.0 | 6284.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 1733.0 | 411.0 | 528.0 | 695.0 | 1081.0 | 2745.0 | 5254.0 | 5254.0 | 6474.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 1786.0 | 424.0 | 544.0 | 716.0 | 1114.0 | 2832.0 | 5429.0 | 5429.0 | 6694.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 1747.0 | 411.0 | 528.0 | 697.0 | 1087.0 | 2775.0 | 5333.0 | 5333.0 | 6580.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 1548.0 | 354.0 | 458.0 | 609.0 | 957.0 | 2468.0 | 4762.0 | 4762.0 | 5882.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 1376.0 | 305.0 | 399.0 | 534.0 | 846.0 | 2203.0 | 4270.0 | 4270.0 | 5280.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 1289.0 | 280.0 | 368.0 | 495.0 | 789.0 | 2071.0 | 4026.0 | 4026.0 | 4982.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 1159.0 | 243.0 | 323.0 | 438.0 | 705.0 | 1870.0 | 3650.0 | 3650.0 | 4522.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 1035.0 | 208.0 | 280.0 | 384.0 | 625.0 | 1677.0 | 3289.0 | 3289.0 | 4079.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 929.0 | 178.0 | 243.0 | 337.0 | 556.0 | 1514.0 | 2987.0 | 2987.0 | 3711.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 877.0 | 162.0 | 224.0 | 314.0 | 521.0 | 1437.0 | 2848.0 | 2848.0 | 3542.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 746.0 | 126.0 | 179.0 | 256.0 | 437.0 | 1233.0 | 2464.0 | 2464.0 | 3070.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 663.0 | 102.0 | 150.0 | 220.0 | 383.0 | 1104.0 | 2223.0 | 2223.0 | 2775.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 636.0 | 94.0 | 140.0 | 208.0 | 365.0 | 1063.0 | 2150.0 | 2150.0 | 2687.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 579.0 | 78.0 | 121.0 | 183.0 | 329.0 | 976.0 | 1986.0 | 1986.0 | 2486.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 523.0 | 63.0 | 102.0 | 159.0 | 293.0 | 889.0 | 1822.0 | 1822.0 | 2285.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 470.0 | 48.0 | 84.0 | 136.0 | 259.0 | 806.0 | 1665.0 | 1665.0 | 2092.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 404.0 | 31.0 | 62.0 | 108.0 | 216.0 | 702.0 | 1465.0 | 1465.0 | 1845.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 337.0 | 13.0 | 40.0 | 80.0 | 174.0 | 597.0 | 1264.0 | 1264.0 | 1595.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 318.0 | 7.0 | 34.0 | 72.0 | 162.0 | 567.0 | 1207.0 | 1207.0 | 1526.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 279.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 55.0 | 137.0 | 505.0 | 1088.0 | 1088.0 | 1379.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 266.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 50.0 | 129.0 | 485.0 | 1051.0 | 1051.0 | 1334.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 226.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 33.0 | 103.0 | 422.0 | 928.0 | 928.0 | 1181.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 210.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 94.0 | 398.0 | 882.0 | 882.0 | 1125.0 |
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