Prediction 3527
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Distrito Federal |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=DF (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 275.0 | 44.0 | 68.0 | 100.0 | 170.0 | 421.0 | 737.0 | 737.0 | 876.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 268.0 | 38.0 | 62.0 | 94.0 | 163.0 | 416.0 | 739.0 | 739.0 | 882.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 255.0 | 30.0 | 53.0 | 84.0 | 151.0 | 401.0 | 724.0 | 724.0 | 868.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 270.0 | 33.0 | 56.0 | 89.0 | 160.0 | 427.0 | 776.0 | 776.0 | 933.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 271.0 | 30.0 | 54.0 | 87.0 | 159.0 | 432.0 | 794.0 | 794.0 | 958.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 268.0 | 27.0 | 50.0 | 83.0 | 155.0 | 432.0 | 802.0 | 802.0 | 971.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 278.0 | 27.0 | 52.0 | 86.0 | 160.0 | 449.0 | 840.0 | 840.0 | 1019.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 282.0 | 27.0 | 51.0 | 86.0 | 162.0 | 459.0 | 867.0 | 867.0 | 1054.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 322.0 | 37.0 | 65.0 | 103.0 | 187.0 | 521.0 | 983.0 | 983.0 | 1197.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 334.0 | 39.0 | 67.0 | 106.0 | 193.0 | 542.0 | 1029.0 | 1029.0 | 1255.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 321.0 | 33.0 | 60.0 | 98.0 | 183.0 | 527.0 | 1011.0 | 1011.0 | 1238.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 308.0 | 27.0 | 53.0 | 90.0 | 173.0 | 511.0 | 991.0 | 991.0 | 1217.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 455.0 | 69.0 | 105.0 | 155.0 | 269.0 | 734.0 | 1401.0 | 1401.0 | 1716.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 463.0 | 69.0 | 105.0 | 157.0 | 272.0 | 751.0 | 1442.0 | 1442.0 | 1770.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 516.0 | 83.0 | 122.0 | 178.0 | 305.0 | 835.0 | 1607.0 | 1607.0 | 1975.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 561.0 | 94.0 | 136.0 | 196.0 | 333.0 | 909.0 | 1754.0 | 1754.0 | 2159.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 643.0 | 115.0 | 162.0 | 230.0 | 384.0 | 1038.0 | 2005.0 | 2005.0 | 2470.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 713.0 | 132.0 | 184.0 | 258.0 | 428.0 | 1152.0 | 2229.0 | 2229.0 | 2749.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 754.0 | 141.0 | 195.0 | 273.0 | 453.0 | 1221.0 | 2373.0 | 2373.0 | 2931.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 769.0 | 142.0 | 197.0 | 277.0 | 460.0 | 1249.0 | 2440.0 | 2440.0 | 3020.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 872.0 | 168.0 | 229.0 | 318.0 | 524.0 | 1415.0 | 2769.0 | 2769.0 | 3430.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 906.0 | 174.0 | 238.0 | 330.0 | 543.0 | 1474.0 | 2896.0 | 2896.0 | 3593.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 966.0 | 187.0 | 255.0 | 352.0 | 579.0 | 1574.0 | 3104.0 | 3104.0 | 3856.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 1004.0 | 194.0 | 264.0 | 365.0 | 600.0 | 1639.0 | 3246.0 | 3246.0 | 4039.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 1030.0 | 198.0 | 269.0 | 373.0 | 614.0 | 1687.0 | 3356.0 | 3356.0 | 4181.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 1125.0 | 220.0 | 297.0 | 410.0 | 672.0 | 1844.0 | 3678.0 | 3678.0 | 4588.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 1250.0 | 250.0 | 334.0 | 458.0 | 748.0 | 2049.0 | 4096.0 | 4096.0 | 5114.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 1221.0 | 239.0 | 322.0 | 443.0 | 727.0 | 2009.0 | 4037.0 | 4037.0 | 5048.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 1221.0 | 236.0 | 319.0 | 440.0 | 725.0 | 2017.0 | 4070.0 | 4070.0 | 5096.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 1259.0 | 243.0 | 327.0 | 452.0 | 746.0 | 2083.0 | 4218.0 | 4218.0 | 5289.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 1249.0 | 237.0 | 322.0 | 445.0 | 737.0 | 2074.0 | 4218.0 | 4218.0 | 5296.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 1155.0 | 211.0 | 290.0 | 404.0 | 677.0 | 1928.0 | 3945.0 | 3945.0 | 4961.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 1043.0 | 181.0 | 252.0 | 357.0 | 606.0 | 1752.0 | 3608.0 | 3608.0 | 4545.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 1020.0 | 173.0 | 243.0 | 345.0 | 589.0 | 1719.0 | 3555.0 | 3555.0 | 4485.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 871.0 | 135.0 | 196.0 | 284.0 | 496.0 | 1481.0 | 3089.0 | 3089.0 | 3905.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 748.0 | 104.0 | 157.0 | 234.0 | 419.0 | 1284.0 | 2701.0 | 2701.0 | 3422.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 578.0 | 62.0 | 104.0 | 166.0 | 314.0 | 1010.0 | 2155.0 | 2155.0 | 2738.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 465.0 | 34.0 | 69.0 | 120.0 | 244.0 | 826.0 | 1788.0 | 1788.0 | 2280.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 383.0 | 14.0 | 43.0 | 88.0 | 193.0 | 693.0 | 1523.0 | 1523.0 | 1947.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 332.0 | 1.0 | 28.0 | 67.0 | 162.0 | 611.0 | 1360.0 | 1360.0 | 1744.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 292.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 51.0 | 137.0 | 547.0 | 1232.0 | 1232.0 | 1585.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 249.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 34.0 | 111.0 | 477.0 | 1092.0 | 1092.0 | 1409.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 231.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 99.0 | 449.0 | 1037.0 | 1037.0 | 1340.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 197.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 78.0 | 393.0 | 925.0 | 925.0 | 1199.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 191.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 75.0 | 385.0 | 910.0 | 910.0 | 1183.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 165.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 59.0 | 342.0 | 823.0 | 823.0 | 1073.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 162.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 57.0 | 338.0 | 817.0 | 817.0 | 1066.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 162.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 56.0 | 339.0 | 821.0 | 821.0 | 1073.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 171.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 61.0 | 354.0 | 857.0 | 857.0 | 1118.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 156.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 53.0 | 331.0 | 810.0 | 810.0 | 1060.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 165.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 58.0 | 347.0 | 846.0 | 846.0 | 1107.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 156.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 52.0 | 332.0 | 817.0 | 817.0 | 1071.0 |
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