Prediction 3530
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Maranhão |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=MA (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 69.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 29.0 | 120.0 | 222.0 | 222.0 | 265.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 31.0 | 125.0 | 232.0 | 232.0 | 276.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 31.0 | 126.0 | 234.0 | 234.0 | 280.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 78.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 35.0 | 134.0 | 249.0 | 249.0 | 297.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 32.0 | 131.0 | 246.0 | 246.0 | 294.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 76.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 33.0 | 133.0 | 251.0 | 251.0 | 300.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 80.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 35.0 | 139.0 | 260.0 | 260.0 | 312.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 80.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 35.0 | 140.0 | 262.0 | 262.0 | 315.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 93.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 45.0 | 158.0 | 292.0 | 292.0 | 349.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 84.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 37.0 | 146.0 | 275.0 | 275.0 | 330.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 76.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 136.0 | 259.0 | 259.0 | 312.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 73.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 132.0 | 256.0 | 256.0 | 308.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 114.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 22.0 | 59.0 | 188.0 | 342.0 | 342.0 | 408.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 160.0 | 9.0 | 26.0 | 48.0 | 93.0 | 251.0 | 439.0 | 439.0 | 520.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 178.0 | 16.0 | 34.0 | 57.0 | 106.0 | 275.0 | 477.0 | 477.0 | 564.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 175.0 | 14.0 | 32.0 | 55.0 | 103.0 | 272.0 | 473.0 | 473.0 | 560.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 196.0 | 23.0 | 42.0 | 67.0 | 119.0 | 301.0 | 520.0 | 520.0 | 614.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 236.0 | 39.0 | 60.0 | 89.0 | 148.0 | 355.0 | 604.0 | 604.0 | 711.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 280.0 | 57.0 | 81.0 | 113.0 | 180.0 | 415.0 | 699.0 | 699.0 | 821.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 277.0 | 55.0 | 79.0 | 111.0 | 178.0 | 412.0 | 694.0 | 694.0 | 816.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 304.0 | 66.0 | 91.0 | 125.0 | 197.0 | 448.0 | 752.0 | 752.0 | 884.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 303.0 | 65.0 | 91.0 | 125.0 | 197.0 | 449.0 | 754.0 | 754.0 | 886.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 292.0 | 60.0 | 85.0 | 118.0 | 188.0 | 434.0 | 732.0 | 732.0 | 861.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 279.0 | 54.0 | 78.0 | 111.0 | 178.0 | 416.0 | 704.0 | 704.0 | 829.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 267.0 | 49.0 | 73.0 | 104.0 | 170.0 | 401.0 | 681.0 | 681.0 | 803.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 274.0 | 52.0 | 76.0 | 108.0 | 175.0 | 411.0 | 698.0 | 698.0 | 822.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 261.0 | 47.0 | 69.0 | 100.0 | 165.0 | 393.0 | 671.0 | 671.0 | 791.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 292.0 | 59.0 | 84.0 | 117.0 | 187.0 | 435.0 | 738.0 | 738.0 | 869.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 275.0 | 51.0 | 75.0 | 107.0 | 174.0 | 412.0 | 701.0 | 701.0 | 826.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 256.0 | 44.0 | 66.0 | 97.0 | 161.0 | 387.0 | 663.0 | 663.0 | 782.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 232.0 | 34.0 | 55.0 | 83.0 | 143.0 | 354.0 | 611.0 | 611.0 | 723.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 233.0 | 34.0 | 55.0 | 84.0 | 144.0 | 355.0 | 614.0 | 614.0 | 727.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 200.0 | 21.0 | 40.0 | 65.0 | 119.0 | 310.0 | 543.0 | 543.0 | 645.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 180.0 | 13.0 | 30.0 | 54.0 | 105.0 | 283.0 | 502.0 | 502.0 | 597.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 157.0 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 42.0 | 88.0 | 252.0 | 453.0 | 453.0 | 540.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 138.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 31.0 | 74.0 | 226.0 | 412.0 | 412.0 | 493.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 121.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 22.0 | 62.0 | 203.0 | 376.0 | 376.0 | 452.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 106.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 50.0 | 182.0 | 344.0 | 344.0 | 415.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 99.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 45.0 | 173.0 | 330.0 | 330.0 | 398.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 89.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 38.0 | 159.0 | 309.0 | 309.0 | 374.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 88.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 37.0 | 158.0 | 308.0 | 308.0 | 373.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 140.0 | 279.0 | 279.0 | 340.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 82.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 150.0 | 295.0 | 295.0 | 358.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 84.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 153.0 | 300.0 | 300.0 | 364.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 77.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 144.0 | 286.0 | 286.0 | 349.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 70.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 134.0 | 271.0 | 271.0 | 331.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 118.0 | 245.0 | 245.0 | 301.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 116.0 | 243.0 | 243.0 | 298.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 113.0 | 239.0 | 239.0 | 293.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 107.0 | 228.0 | 228.0 | 282.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 87.0 | 197.0 | 197.0 | 245.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 37.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 89.0 | 201.0 | 201.0 | 250.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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