Prediction 3531
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Minas Gerais |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=MG (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 303.0 | 16.0 | 42.0 | 79.0 | 163.0 | 518.0 | 1042.0 | 1042.0 | 1295.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 337.0 | 23.0 | 50.0 | 90.0 | 182.0 | 577.0 | 1171.0 | 1171.0 | 1459.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 346.0 | 22.0 | 50.0 | 91.0 | 185.0 | 598.0 | 1228.0 | 1228.0 | 1537.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 352.0 | 20.0 | 48.0 | 90.0 | 186.0 | 613.0 | 1275.0 | 1275.0 | 1603.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 413.0 | 33.0 | 65.0 | 112.0 | 222.0 | 718.0 | 1498.0 | 1498.0 | 1886.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 436.0 | 35.0 | 69.0 | 118.0 | 234.0 | 761.0 | 1602.0 | 1602.0 | 2024.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 536.0 | 57.0 | 96.0 | 155.0 | 293.0 | 930.0 | 1961.0 | 1961.0 | 2481.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 575.0 | 63.0 | 105.0 | 166.0 | 314.0 | 1002.0 | 2128.0 | 2128.0 | 2701.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 672.0 | 82.0 | 130.0 | 200.0 | 370.0 | 1168.0 | 2492.0 | 2492.0 | 3169.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 729.0 | 92.0 | 143.0 | 218.0 | 401.0 | 1272.0 | 2731.0 | 2731.0 | 3482.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 673.0 | 75.0 | 123.0 | 193.0 | 364.0 | 1188.0 | 2584.0 | 2584.0 | 3306.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 516.0 | 37.0 | 75.0 | 131.0 | 267.0 | 933.0 | 2073.0 | 2073.0 | 2666.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 1180.0 | 180.0 | 258.0 | 374.0 | 659.0 | 2060.0 | 4483.0 | 4483.0 | 5751.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 1511.0 | 247.0 | 344.0 | 490.0 | 849.0 | 2633.0 | 5749.0 | 5749.0 | 7388.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 1744.0 | 290.0 | 401.0 | 568.0 | 980.0 | 3046.0 | 6687.0 | 6687.0 | 8611.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 1906.0 | 318.0 | 438.0 | 619.0 | 1069.0 | 3343.0 | 7384.0 | 7384.0 | 9531.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 2155.0 | 363.0 | 497.0 | 701.0 | 1208.0 | 3790.0 | 8420.0 | 8420.0 | 10891.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 2332.0 | 392.0 | 536.0 | 755.0 | 1303.0 | 4115.0 | 9199.0 | 9199.0 | 11924.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 2657.0 | 450.0 | 613.0 | 861.0 | 1483.0 | 4701.0 | 10566.0 | 10566.0 | 13722.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 2834.0 | 477.0 | 650.0 | 914.0 | 1577.0 | 5034.0 | 11380.0 | 11380.0 | 14809.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 3384.0 | 577.0 | 781.0 | 1093.0 | 1882.0 | 6022.0 | 13679.0 | 13679.0 | 17831.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 3930.0 | 673.0 | 908.0 | 1269.0 | 2183.0 | 7013.0 | 16007.0 | 16007.0 | 20903.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 4507.0 | 774.0 | 1041.0 | 1453.0 | 2500.0 | 8065.0 | 18499.0 | 18499.0 | 24199.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 4618.0 | 784.0 | 1058.0 | 1479.0 | 2552.0 | 8295.0 | 19132.0 | 19132.0 | 25073.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 4806.0 | 810.0 | 1093.0 | 1530.0 | 2647.0 | 8663.0 | 20086.0 | 20086.0 | 26369.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 5452.0 | 918.0 | 1238.0 | 1732.0 | 2997.0 | 9853.0 | 22949.0 | 22949.0 | 30175.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 5613.0 | 937.0 | 1264.0 | 1772.0 | 3076.0 | 10178.0 | 23823.0 | 23823.0 | 31375.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 5574.0 | 920.0 | 1244.0 | 1747.0 | 3043.0 | 10143.0 | 23859.0 | 23859.0 | 31472.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 5342.0 | 869.0 | 1179.0 | 1661.0 | 2905.0 | 9756.0 | 23062.0 | 23062.0 | 30469.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 4916.0 | 785.0 | 1069.0 | 1513.0 | 2661.0 | 9014.0 | 21417.0 | 21417.0 | 28340.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 4394.0 | 686.0 | 940.0 | 1337.0 | 2366.0 | 8091.0 | 19323.0 | 19323.0 | 25609.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 3553.0 | 533.0 | 739.0 | 1061.0 | 1899.0 | 6578.0 | 15803.0 | 15803.0 | 20979.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 2673.0 | 377.0 | 533.0 | 777.0 | 1413.0 | 4983.0 | 12054.0 | 12054.0 | 16031.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 2212.0 | 294.0 | 424.0 | 627.0 | 1158.0 | 4149.0 | 10101.0 | 10101.0 | 13457.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 1808.0 | 223.0 | 330.0 | 497.0 | 935.0 | 3416.0 | 8374.0 | 8374.0 | 11176.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 1362.0 | 146.0 | 227.0 | 355.0 | 691.0 | 2602.0 | 6435.0 | 6435.0 | 8607.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 1047.0 | 91.0 | 155.0 | 256.0 | 519.0 | 2025.0 | 5058.0 | 5058.0 | 6779.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 829.0 | 53.0 | 104.0 | 185.0 | 399.0 | 1628.0 | 4122.0 | 4122.0 | 5543.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 673.0 | 26.0 | 68.0 | 135.0 | 314.0 | 1345.0 | 3456.0 | 3456.0 | 4663.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 531.0 | 1.0 | 36.0 | 91.0 | 236.0 | 1085.0 | 2835.0 | 2835.0 | 3840.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 426.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 57.0 | 179.0 | 892.0 | 2372.0 | 2372.0 | 3225.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 348.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.0 | 136.0 | 748.0 | 2027.0 | 2027.0 | 2767.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 305.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 113.0 | 670.0 | 1842.0 | 1842.0 | 2523.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 282.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 100.0 | 630.0 | 1752.0 | 1752.0 | 2406.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 280.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 98.0 | 628.0 | 1757.0 | 1757.0 | 2417.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 261.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 88.0 | 595.0 | 1681.0 | 1681.0 | 2318.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 234.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 | 546.0 | 1564.0 | 1564.0 | 2163.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 248.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 574.0 | 1645.0 | 1645.0 | 2277.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 271.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 91.0 | 621.0 | 1777.0 | 1777.0 | 2460.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 265.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 87.0 | 611.0 | 1758.0 | 1758.0 | 2438.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 261.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 85.0 | 606.0 | 1754.0 | 1754.0 | 2437.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 257.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 601.0 | 1749.0 | 1749.0 | 2434.0 |
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