Prediction 3532
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Mato Grosso do Sul |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=MS (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 145.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 64.0 | 265.0 | 549.0 | 549.0 | 683.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 156.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 70.0 | 285.0 | 594.0 | 594.0 | 740.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 156.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 69.0 | 290.0 | 611.0 | 611.0 | 764.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 171.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 77.0 | 315.0 | 666.0 | 666.0 | 836.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 213.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 37.0 | 102.0 | 383.0 | 802.0 | 802.0 | 1006.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 244.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 48.0 | 121.0 | 435.0 | 910.0 | 910.0 | 1142.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 301.0 | 9.0 | 34.0 | 71.0 | 156.0 | 529.0 | 1102.0 | 1102.0 | 1383.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 324.0 | 13.0 | 39.0 | 78.0 | 169.0 | 570.0 | 1192.0 | 1192.0 | 1499.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 361.0 | 20.0 | 49.0 | 91.0 | 190.0 | 633.0 | 1327.0 | 1327.0 | 1672.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 375.0 | 21.0 | 51.0 | 95.0 | 197.0 | 660.0 | 1394.0 | 1394.0 | 1760.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 317.0 | 5.0 | 31.0 | 69.0 | 159.0 | 571.0 | 1230.0 | 1230.0 | 1561.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 300.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 60.0 | 147.0 | 548.0 | 1195.0 | 1195.0 | 1521.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 464.0 | 37.0 | 72.0 | 123.0 | 246.0 | 817.0 | 1748.0 | 1748.0 | 2220.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 588.0 | 65.0 | 107.0 | 170.0 | 321.0 | 1026.0 | 2186.0 | 2186.0 | 2777.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 715.0 | 92.0 | 142.0 | 217.0 | 396.0 | 1241.0 | 2642.0 | 2642.0 | 3360.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 817.0 | 113.0 | 170.0 | 253.0 | 455.0 | 1416.0 | 3022.0 | 3022.0 | 3848.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 894.0 | 128.0 | 189.0 | 279.0 | 499.0 | 1550.0 | 3322.0 | 3322.0 | 4237.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 926.0 | 132.0 | 195.0 | 288.0 | 516.0 | 1612.0 | 3473.0 | 3473.0 | 4437.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 966.0 | 138.0 | 203.0 | 300.0 | 537.0 | 1686.0 | 3651.0 | 3651.0 | 4673.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 971.0 | 136.0 | 202.0 | 299.0 | 537.0 | 1702.0 | 3706.0 | 3706.0 | 4753.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 1045.0 | 150.0 | 219.0 | 323.0 | 578.0 | 1834.0 | 4009.0 | 4009.0 | 5149.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 1058.0 | 150.0 | 220.0 | 325.0 | 583.0 | 1862.0 | 4092.0 | 4092.0 | 5265.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 1104.0 | 157.0 | 229.0 | 339.0 | 607.0 | 1948.0 | 4298.0 | 4298.0 | 5537.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 1102.0 | 154.0 | 226.0 | 335.0 | 604.0 | 1952.0 | 4330.0 | 4330.0 | 5588.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 1103.0 | 152.0 | 224.0 | 333.0 | 602.0 | 1961.0 | 4370.0 | 4370.0 | 5649.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 1082.0 | 145.0 | 215.0 | 322.0 | 588.0 | 1931.0 | 4327.0 | 4327.0 | 5602.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 1023.0 | 131.0 | 197.0 | 299.0 | 551.0 | 1836.0 | 4140.0 | 4140.0 | 5368.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 983.0 | 120.0 | 185.0 | 282.0 | 526.0 | 1772.0 | 4017.0 | 4017.0 | 5218.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 875.0 | 97.0 | 155.0 | 242.0 | 462.0 | 1591.0 | 3635.0 | 3635.0 | 4730.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 810.0 | 82.0 | 136.0 | 218.0 | 423.0 | 1482.0 | 3408.0 | 3408.0 | 4444.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 679.0 | 55.0 | 101.0 | 171.0 | 347.0 | 1258.0 | 2924.0 | 2924.0 | 3821.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 520.0 | 22.0 | 59.0 | 114.0 | 255.0 | 984.0 | 2323.0 | 2323.0 | 3046.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 412.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 76.0 | 192.0 | 798.0 | 1914.0 | 1914.0 | 2518.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 365.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 59.0 | 165.0 | 717.0 | 1739.0 | 1739.0 | 2293.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 292.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 123.0 | 591.0 | 1460.0 | 1460.0 | 1933.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 259.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 103.0 | 533.0 | 1335.0 | 1335.0 | 1771.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 237.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 90.0 | 496.0 | 1254.0 | 1254.0 | 1667.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 206.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 72.0 | 443.0 | 1139.0 | 1139.0 | 1520.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 171.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 52.0 | 383.0 | 1008.0 | 1008.0 | 1351.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 145.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.0 | 338.0 | 909.0 | 909.0 | 1223.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 136.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 322.0 | 878.0 | 878.0 | 1185.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 119.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 294.0 | 816.0 | 816.0 | 1105.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 113.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 284.0 | 797.0 | 797.0 | 1082.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 101.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 264.0 | 754.0 | 754.0 | 1026.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 104.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 270.0 | 772.0 | 772.0 | 1051.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 94.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 253.0 | 734.0 | 734.0 | 1002.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 101.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 266.0 | 769.0 | 769.0 | 1051.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 248.0 | 728.0 | 728.0 | 997.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 105.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 275.0 | 795.0 | 795.0 | 1088.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 268.0 | 781.0 | 781.0 | 1069.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 105.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 278.0 | 808.0 | 808.0 | 1108.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 104.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 277.0 | 808.0 | 808.0 | 1109.0 |
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