Prediction 3533
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Mato Grosso |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=MT (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 109.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 54.0 | 182.0 | 337.0 | 337.0 | 403.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 112.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 55.0 | 188.0 | 350.0 | 350.0 | 420.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 124.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 63.0 | 206.0 | 382.0 | 382.0 | 459.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 141.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 31.0 | 75.0 | 232.0 | 426.0 | 426.0 | 512.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 172.0 | 6.0 | 23.0 | 46.0 | 96.0 | 276.0 | 501.0 | 501.0 | 600.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 196.0 | 13.0 | 32.0 | 58.0 | 113.0 | 312.0 | 563.0 | 563.0 | 673.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 240.0 | 28.0 | 50.0 | 80.0 | 143.0 | 375.0 | 670.0 | 670.0 | 800.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 284.0 | 43.0 | 68.0 | 102.0 | 174.0 | 439.0 | 778.0 | 778.0 | 929.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 343.0 | 63.0 | 92.0 | 131.0 | 214.0 | 524.0 | 923.0 | 923.0 | 1101.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 341.0 | 61.0 | 89.0 | 128.0 | 211.0 | 523.0 | 927.0 | 927.0 | 1108.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 280.0 | 37.0 | 61.0 | 95.0 | 167.0 | 440.0 | 794.0 | 794.0 | 953.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 192.0 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 49.0 | 105.0 | 316.0 | 593.0 | 593.0 | 718.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 510.0 | 116.0 | 155.0 | 209.0 | 327.0 | 772.0 | 1359.0 | 1359.0 | 1624.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 585.0 | 140.0 | 184.0 | 245.0 | 377.0 | 882.0 | 1551.0 | 1551.0 | 1854.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 609.0 | 147.0 | 192.0 | 255.0 | 393.0 | 921.0 | 1622.0 | 1622.0 | 1941.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 676.0 | 168.0 | 218.0 | 287.0 | 438.0 | 1020.0 | 1798.0 | 1798.0 | 2153.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 741.0 | 188.0 | 242.0 | 317.0 | 482.0 | 1117.0 | 1970.0 | 1970.0 | 2360.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 736.0 | 184.0 | 238.0 | 312.0 | 476.0 | 1112.0 | 1969.0 | 1969.0 | 2362.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 770.0 | 193.0 | 249.0 | 327.0 | 498.0 | 1165.0 | 2067.0 | 2067.0 | 2481.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 699.0 | 167.0 | 219.0 | 291.0 | 448.0 | 1064.0 | 1901.0 | 1901.0 | 2285.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 741.0 | 180.0 | 234.0 | 310.0 | 476.0 | 1128.0 | 2018.0 | 2018.0 | 2427.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 731.0 | 175.0 | 228.0 | 303.0 | 468.0 | 1115.0 | 2002.0 | 2002.0 | 2411.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 764.0 | 184.0 | 240.0 | 317.0 | 489.0 | 1167.0 | 2097.0 | 2097.0 | 2527.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 733.0 | 172.0 | 226.0 | 301.0 | 467.0 | 1124.0 | 2028.0 | 2028.0 | 2447.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 699.0 | 160.0 | 211.0 | 283.0 | 443.0 | 1075.0 | 1950.0 | 1950.0 | 2355.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 722.0 | 166.0 | 219.0 | 293.0 | 457.0 | 1112.0 | 2018.0 | 2018.0 | 2439.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 702.0 | 158.0 | 210.0 | 282.0 | 443.0 | 1084.0 | 1975.0 | 1975.0 | 2390.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 676.0 | 149.0 | 199.0 | 269.0 | 424.0 | 1047.0 | 1915.0 | 1915.0 | 2319.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 645.0 | 138.0 | 186.0 | 253.0 | 403.0 | 1004.0 | 1842.0 | 1842.0 | 2233.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 622.0 | 129.0 | 176.0 | 241.0 | 387.0 | 971.0 | 1788.0 | 1788.0 | 2170.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 593.0 | 119.0 | 164.0 | 227.0 | 366.0 | 929.0 | 1718.0 | 1718.0 | 2087.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 545.0 | 104.0 | 145.0 | 203.0 | 334.0 | 859.0 | 1598.0 | 1598.0 | 1945.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 481.0 | 83.0 | 120.0 | 173.0 | 290.0 | 766.0 | 1435.0 | 1435.0 | 1749.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 428.0 | 65.0 | 99.0 | 147.0 | 254.0 | 687.0 | 1298.0 | 1298.0 | 1584.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 362.0 | 44.0 | 74.0 | 116.0 | 209.0 | 589.0 | 1126.0 | 1126.0 | 1378.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 309.0 | 27.0 | 54.0 | 91.0 | 174.0 | 511.0 | 989.0 | 989.0 | 1214.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 280.0 | 18.0 | 42.0 | 77.0 | 154.0 | 469.0 | 915.0 | 915.0 | 1125.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 241.0 | 5.0 | 27.0 | 58.0 | 127.0 | 412.0 | 817.0 | 817.0 | 1008.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 211.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 43.0 | 107.0 | 369.0 | 743.0 | 743.0 | 920.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 173.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 81.0 | 311.0 | 643.0 | 643.0 | 800.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 155.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 69.0 | 285.0 | 598.0 | 598.0 | 746.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 133.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 54.0 | 253.0 | 541.0 | 541.0 | 679.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 114.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41.0 | 224.0 | 491.0 | 491.0 | 619.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 103.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 209.0 | 466.0 | 466.0 | 588.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 110.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 38.0 | 221.0 | 488.0 | 488.0 | 615.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 200.0 | 451.0 | 451.0 | 571.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 79.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 174.0 | 405.0 | 405.0 | 516.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 86.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 185.0 | 426.0 | 426.0 | 541.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 89.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 190.0 | 437.0 | 437.0 | 556.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 88.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 189.0 | 437.0 | 437.0 | 556.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 193.0 | 445.0 | 445.0 | 567.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 193.0 | 447.0 | 447.0 | 569.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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