Prediction 3536
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Pernambuco |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=PE (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 207.0 | 8.0 | 28.0 | 56.0 | 115.0 | 340.0 | 637.0 | 637.0 | 772.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 206.0 | 5.0 | 25.0 | 52.0 | 112.0 | 342.0 | 649.0 | 649.0 | 789.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 225.0 | 9.0 | 30.0 | 59.0 | 123.0 | 372.0 | 710.0 | 710.0 | 865.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 227.0 | 8.0 | 29.0 | 58.0 | 123.0 | 379.0 | 731.0 | 731.0 | 893.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 246.0 | 12.0 | 34.0 | 65.0 | 134.0 | 411.0 | 795.0 | 795.0 | 973.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 240.0 | 7.0 | 29.0 | 60.0 | 128.0 | 405.0 | 792.0 | 792.0 | 974.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 227.0 | 2.0 | 23.0 | 52.0 | 119.0 | 389.0 | 773.0 | 773.0 | 954.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 227.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 50.0 | 117.0 | 392.0 | 785.0 | 785.0 | 971.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 227.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 49.0 | 116.0 | 395.0 | 799.0 | 799.0 | 991.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 239.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 53.0 | 123.0 | 416.0 | 845.0 | 845.0 | 1050.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 192.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 30.0 | 91.0 | 347.0 | 725.0 | 725.0 | 906.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 114.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 | 230.0 | 513.0 | 513.0 | 649.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 184.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 84.0 | 338.0 | 720.0 | 720.0 | 905.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 200.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 30.0 | 93.0 | 366.0 | 777.0 | 777.0 | 977.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 224.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 39.0 | 108.0 | 405.0 | 858.0 | 858.0 | 1079.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 241.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 46.0 | 118.0 | 435.0 | 919.0 | 919.0 | 1157.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 299.0 | 7.0 | 32.0 | 69.0 | 154.0 | 528.0 | 1104.0 | 1104.0 | 1388.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 328.0 | 14.0 | 40.0 | 80.0 | 171.0 | 576.0 | 1203.0 | 1203.0 | 1513.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 384.0 | 27.0 | 57.0 | 102.0 | 205.0 | 666.0 | 1386.0 | 1386.0 | 1743.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 375.0 | 23.0 | 53.0 | 97.0 | 199.0 | 656.0 | 1374.0 | 1374.0 | 1731.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 436.0 | 38.0 | 71.0 | 120.0 | 236.0 | 755.0 | 1576.0 | 1576.0 | 1985.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 498.0 | 52.0 | 90.0 | 144.0 | 273.0 | 858.0 | 1785.0 | 1785.0 | 2249.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 519.0 | 56.0 | 95.0 | 151.0 | 285.0 | 894.0 | 1866.0 | 1866.0 | 2354.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 552.0 | 63.0 | 104.0 | 163.0 | 305.0 | 951.0 | 1987.0 | 1987.0 | 2508.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 549.0 | 61.0 | 101.0 | 161.0 | 302.0 | 949.0 | 1993.0 | 1993.0 | 2519.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 660.0 | 87.0 | 134.0 | 204.0 | 369.0 | 1131.0 | 2366.0 | 2366.0 | 2990.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 691.0 | 93.0 | 142.0 | 214.0 | 386.0 | 1185.0 | 2483.0 | 2483.0 | 3141.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 825.0 | 124.0 | 181.0 | 266.0 | 468.0 | 1407.0 | 2941.0 | 2941.0 | 3720.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 836.0 | 125.0 | 183.0 | 269.0 | 473.0 | 1430.0 | 2999.0 | 2999.0 | 3797.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 924.0 | 144.0 | 208.0 | 301.0 | 526.0 | 1578.0 | 3310.0 | 3310.0 | 4194.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 959.0 | 151.0 | 216.0 | 313.0 | 545.0 | 1638.0 | 3445.0 | 3445.0 | 4368.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 984.0 | 155.0 | 222.0 | 321.0 | 559.0 | 1683.0 | 3548.0 | 3548.0 | 4502.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 870.0 | 127.0 | 187.0 | 275.0 | 488.0 | 1498.0 | 3181.0 | 3181.0 | 4044.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 827.0 | 116.0 | 173.0 | 257.0 | 461.0 | 1431.0 | 3052.0 | 3052.0 | 3886.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 786.0 | 105.0 | 159.0 | 240.0 | 435.0 | 1366.0 | 2927.0 | 2927.0 | 3731.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 687.0 | 81.0 | 129.0 | 201.0 | 375.0 | 1206.0 | 2603.0 | 2603.0 | 3324.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 594.0 | 59.0 | 101.0 | 164.0 | 317.0 | 1053.0 | 2293.0 | 2293.0 | 2933.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 571.0 | 52.0 | 93.0 | 154.0 | 303.0 | 1019.0 | 2235.0 | 2235.0 | 2865.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 555.0 | 47.0 | 87.0 | 146.0 | 291.0 | 996.0 | 2199.0 | 2199.0 | 2824.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 542.0 | 42.0 | 81.0 | 140.0 | 282.0 | 978.0 | 2172.0 | 2172.0 | 2795.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 474.0 | 26.0 | 61.0 | 113.0 | 241.0 | 867.0 | 1948.0 | 1948.0 | 2513.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 401.0 | 9.0 | 39.0 | 85.0 | 197.0 | 747.0 | 1703.0 | 1703.0 | 2204.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 399.0 | 8.0 | 38.0 | 83.0 | 195.0 | 747.0 | 1709.0 | 1709.0 | 2215.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 380.0 | 3.0 | 32.0 | 75.0 | 183.0 | 717.0 | 1653.0 | 1653.0 | 2147.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 349.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 63.0 | 163.0 | 666.0 | 1551.0 | 1551.0 | 2018.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 341.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 59.0 | 158.0 | 654.0 | 1531.0 | 1531.0 | 1996.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 302.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 44.0 | 134.0 | 589.0 | 1396.0 | 1396.0 | 1825.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 296.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 42.0 | 131.0 | 581.0 | 1385.0 | 1385.0 | 1812.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 280.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 35.0 | 121.0 | 555.0 | 1332.0 | 1332.0 | 1746.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 263.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 110.0 | 526.0 | 1275.0 | 1275.0 | 1674.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 264.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 110.0 | 530.0 | 1287.0 | 1287.0 | 1692.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 255.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 105.0 | 516.0 | 1261.0 | 1261.0 | 1661.0 |
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