Prediction 3538
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Paraná |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=PR (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 631.0 | 93.0 | 139.0 | 206.0 | 362.0 | 1057.0 | 2136.0 | 2136.0 | 2670.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 633.0 | 87.0 | 133.0 | 200.0 | 358.0 | 1072.0 | 2205.0 | 2205.0 | 2771.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 648.0 | 85.0 | 131.0 | 200.0 | 362.0 | 1110.0 | 2318.0 | 2318.0 | 2927.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 679.0 | 87.0 | 135.0 | 206.0 | 376.0 | 1173.0 | 2484.0 | 2484.0 | 3151.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 730.0 | 93.0 | 144.0 | 220.0 | 403.0 | 1271.0 | 2722.0 | 2722.0 | 3468.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 749.0 | 92.0 | 144.0 | 221.0 | 409.0 | 1316.0 | 2856.0 | 2856.0 | 3654.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 889.0 | 118.0 | 178.0 | 268.0 | 487.0 | 1564.0 | 3420.0 | 3420.0 | 4390.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 938.0 | 123.0 | 185.0 | 280.0 | 511.0 | 1663.0 | 3678.0 | 3678.0 | 4738.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 1003.0 | 131.0 | 197.0 | 297.0 | 544.0 | 1789.0 | 3995.0 | 3995.0 | 5166.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 1114.0 | 148.0 | 221.0 | 330.0 | 603.0 | 1997.0 | 4501.0 | 4501.0 | 5838.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 1097.0 | 139.0 | 210.0 | 318.0 | 588.0 | 1984.0 | 4523.0 | 4523.0 | 5889.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 1022.0 | 119.0 | 185.0 | 286.0 | 540.0 | 1867.0 | 4311.0 | 4311.0 | 5634.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 1267.0 | 162.0 | 242.0 | 364.0 | 674.0 | 2314.0 | 5370.0 | 5370.0 | 7035.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 1527.0 | 206.0 | 300.0 | 445.0 | 815.0 | 2794.0 | 6524.0 | 6524.0 | 8567.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 1863.0 | 261.0 | 374.0 | 549.0 | 997.0 | 3415.0 | 8024.0 | 8024.0 | 10564.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 2053.0 | 289.0 | 412.0 | 603.0 | 1095.0 | 3780.0 | 8953.0 | 8953.0 | 11820.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 2507.0 | 362.0 | 511.0 | 741.0 | 1338.0 | 4627.0 | 11028.0 | 11028.0 | 14595.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 2851.0 | 414.0 | 581.0 | 842.0 | 1518.0 | 5283.0 | 12685.0 | 12685.0 | 16831.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 3309.0 | 484.0 | 676.0 | 976.0 | 1757.0 | 6155.0 | 14881.0 | 14881.0 | 19793.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 3714.0 | 543.0 | 756.0 | 1091.0 | 1967.0 | 6940.0 | 16898.0 | 16898.0 | 22531.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 4278.0 | 626.0 | 869.0 | 1252.0 | 2259.0 | 8023.0 | 19670.0 | 19670.0 | 26289.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 4713.0 | 686.0 | 952.0 | 1372.0 | 2480.0 | 8877.0 | 21915.0 | 21915.0 | 29359.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 5271.0 | 764.0 | 1059.0 | 1527.0 | 2764.0 | 9970.0 | 24775.0 | 24775.0 | 33267.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 5650.0 | 812.0 | 1126.0 | 1625.0 | 2951.0 | 10734.0 | 26854.0 | 26854.0 | 36138.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 5528.0 | 781.0 | 1087.0 | 1573.0 | 2873.0 | 10556.0 | 26594.0 | 26594.0 | 35868.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 5663.0 | 790.0 | 1101.0 | 1599.0 | 2930.0 | 10863.0 | 27546.0 | 27546.0 | 37232.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 5591.0 | 767.0 | 1073.0 | 1563.0 | 2879.0 | 10773.0 | 27498.0 | 27498.0 | 37246.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 5134.0 | 688.0 | 968.0 | 1417.0 | 2628.0 | 9944.0 | 25552.0 | 25552.0 | 34683.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 4529.0 | 588.0 | 835.0 | 1231.0 | 2302.0 | 8820.0 | 22822.0 | 22822.0 | 31042.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 3854.0 | 481.0 | 691.0 | 1028.0 | 1944.0 | 7551.0 | 19674.0 | 19674.0 | 26817.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 3228.0 | 383.0 | 559.0 | 842.0 | 1613.0 | 6364.0 | 16703.0 | 16703.0 | 22814.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 2525.0 | 277.0 | 415.0 | 638.0 | 1246.0 | 5018.0 | 13277.0 | 13277.0 | 18174.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 1900.0 | 184.0 | 289.0 | 458.0 | 922.0 | 3814.0 | 10184.0 | 10184.0 | 13973.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 1393.0 | 110.0 | 188.0 | 314.0 | 660.0 | 2832.0 | 7645.0 | 7645.0 | 10517.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 1028.0 | 57.0 | 116.0 | 211.0 | 472.0 | 2123.0 | 5800.0 | 5800.0 | 8001.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 896.0 | 37.0 | 89.0 | 173.0 | 404.0 | 1871.0 | 5156.0 | 5156.0 | 7128.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 720.0 | 12.0 | 54.0 | 123.0 | 313.0 | 1527.0 | 4259.0 | 4259.0 | 5904.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 623.0 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 95.0 | 263.0 | 1341.0 | 3784.0 | 3784.0 | 5259.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 515.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 65.0 | 208.0 | 1131.0 | 3240.0 | 3240.0 | 4518.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 460.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 49.0 | 179.0 | 1026.0 | 2972.0 | 2972.0 | 4155.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 399.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 147.0 | 906.0 | 2661.0 | 2661.0 | 3732.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 376.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 135.0 | 863.0 | 2558.0 | 2558.0 | 3596.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 121.0 | 815.0 | 2438.0 | 2438.0 | 3435.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 324.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 108.0 | 766.0 | 2314.0 | 2314.0 | 3269.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 301.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 96.0 | 722.0 | 2203.0 | 2203.0 | 3119.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 291.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 90.0 | 703.0 | 2163.0 | 2163.0 | 3067.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 281.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 85.0 | 686.0 | 2124.0 | 2124.0 | 3018.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 274.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 673.0 | 2097.0 | 2097.0 | 2985.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 278.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 685.0 | 2141.0 | 2141.0 | 3052.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 278.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 687.0 | 2157.0 | 2157.0 | 3078.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 279.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 691.0 | 2179.0 | 2179.0 | 3113.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 277.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 689.0 | 2183.0 | 2183.0 | 3124.0 |
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