Prediction 3540
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Rio Grande do Norte |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=RN (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 448.0 | 102.0 | 138.0 | 186.0 | 289.0 | 671.0 | 1162.0 | 1162.0 | 1382.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 445.0 | 97.0 | 132.0 | 181.0 | 284.0 | 674.0 | 1179.0 | 1179.0 | 1406.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 415.0 | 83.0 | 116.0 | 162.0 | 261.0 | 636.0 | 1129.0 | 1129.0 | 1351.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 403.0 | 75.0 | 108.0 | 152.0 | 250.0 | 622.0 | 1116.0 | 1116.0 | 1340.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 420.0 | 78.0 | 112.0 | 158.0 | 260.0 | 652.0 | 1177.0 | 1177.0 | 1417.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 424.0 | 77.0 | 111.0 | 158.0 | 261.0 | 662.0 | 1204.0 | 1204.0 | 1452.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 422.0 | 74.0 | 107.0 | 154.0 | 257.0 | 663.0 | 1215.0 | 1215.0 | 1470.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 416.0 | 69.0 | 102.0 | 149.0 | 252.0 | 657.0 | 1215.0 | 1215.0 | 1473.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 404.0 | 63.0 | 96.0 | 141.0 | 242.0 | 643.0 | 1199.0 | 1199.0 | 1458.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 402.0 | 60.0 | 93.0 | 138.0 | 239.0 | 643.0 | 1207.0 | 1207.0 | 1470.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 354.0 | 43.0 | 73.0 | 114.0 | 205.0 | 575.0 | 1094.0 | 1094.0 | 1337.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 310.0 | 28.0 | 54.0 | 91.0 | 175.0 | 511.0 | 988.0 | 988.0 | 1211.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 418.0 | 60.0 | 93.0 | 140.0 | 246.0 | 676.0 | 1287.0 | 1287.0 | 1575.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 454.0 | 70.0 | 105.0 | 156.0 | 269.0 | 733.0 | 1396.0 | 1396.0 | 1710.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 490.0 | 79.0 | 117.0 | 170.0 | 291.0 | 790.0 | 1506.0 | 1506.0 | 1846.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 497.0 | 79.0 | 118.0 | 172.0 | 295.0 | 803.0 | 1537.0 | 1537.0 | 1886.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 583.0 | 104.0 | 147.0 | 210.0 | 351.0 | 937.0 | 1788.0 | 1788.0 | 2193.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 622.0 | 113.0 | 159.0 | 225.0 | 374.0 | 997.0 | 1906.0 | 1906.0 | 2341.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 679.0 | 129.0 | 179.0 | 250.0 | 411.0 | 1089.0 | 2082.0 | 2082.0 | 2557.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 771.0 | 154.0 | 209.0 | 289.0 | 469.0 | 1231.0 | 2351.0 | 2351.0 | 2889.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 868.0 | 180.0 | 242.0 | 330.0 | 532.0 | 1384.0 | 2643.0 | 2643.0 | 3248.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 981.0 | 211.0 | 280.0 | 378.0 | 604.0 | 1561.0 | 2979.0 | 2979.0 | 3663.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 1113.0 | 246.0 | 324.0 | 435.0 | 688.0 | 1768.0 | 3373.0 | 3373.0 | 4148.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 1064.0 | 231.0 | 305.0 | 411.0 | 655.0 | 1696.0 | 3249.0 | 3249.0 | 4001.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 1049.0 | 224.0 | 298.0 | 403.0 | 644.0 | 1676.0 | 3221.0 | 3221.0 | 3970.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 1285.0 | 289.0 | 377.0 | 504.0 | 795.0 | 2044.0 | 3921.0 | 3921.0 | 4832.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 1414.0 | 323.0 | 419.0 | 558.0 | 877.0 | 2249.0 | 4316.0 | 4316.0 | 5320.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 1497.0 | 344.0 | 445.0 | 592.0 | 928.0 | 2381.0 | 4575.0 | 4575.0 | 5643.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 1515.0 | 347.0 | 450.0 | 597.0 | 938.0 | 2413.0 | 4646.0 | 4646.0 | 5734.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 1540.0 | 352.0 | 456.0 | 606.0 | 953.0 | 2456.0 | 4738.0 | 4738.0 | 5852.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 1497.0 | 338.0 | 440.0 | 586.0 | 924.0 | 2393.0 | 4628.0 | 4628.0 | 5721.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 1505.0 | 339.0 | 441.0 | 587.0 | 927.0 | 2408.0 | 4667.0 | 4667.0 | 5772.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 1347.0 | 294.0 | 386.0 | 518.0 | 825.0 | 2163.0 | 4209.0 | 4209.0 | 5211.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 1315.0 | 284.0 | 374.0 | 503.0 | 803.0 | 2117.0 | 4128.0 | 4128.0 | 5114.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 1212.0 | 255.0 | 338.0 | 458.0 | 736.0 | 1957.0 | 3830.0 | 3830.0 | 4749.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 1061.0 | 213.0 | 287.0 | 393.0 | 640.0 | 1723.0 | 3389.0 | 3389.0 | 4208.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 975.0 | 189.0 | 257.0 | 355.0 | 584.0 | 1589.0 | 3137.0 | 3137.0 | 3899.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 871.0 | 159.0 | 220.0 | 309.0 | 516.0 | 1429.0 | 2842.0 | 2842.0 | 3538.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 838.0 | 148.0 | 207.0 | 293.0 | 493.0 | 1381.0 | 2760.0 | 2760.0 | 3441.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 778.0 | 131.0 | 186.0 | 267.0 | 454.0 | 1291.0 | 2595.0 | 2595.0 | 3240.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 709.0 | 111.0 | 162.0 | 236.0 | 409.0 | 1184.0 | 2395.0 | 2395.0 | 2997.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 597.0 | 81.0 | 125.0 | 189.0 | 338.0 | 1009.0 | 2063.0 | 2063.0 | 2587.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 555.0 | 69.0 | 110.0 | 170.0 | 311.0 | 944.0 | 1942.0 | 1942.0 | 2440.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 553.0 | 67.0 | 108.0 | 168.0 | 308.0 | 942.0 | 1945.0 | 1945.0 | 2446.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 483.0 | 49.0 | 85.0 | 139.0 | 264.0 | 834.0 | 1737.0 | 1737.0 | 2188.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 419.0 | 32.0 | 64.0 | 112.0 | 224.0 | 732.0 | 1542.0 | 1542.0 | 1947.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 342.0 | 11.0 | 39.0 | 79.0 | 175.0 | 609.0 | 1303.0 | 1303.0 | 1650.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 335.0 | 9.0 | 36.0 | 76.0 | 170.0 | 600.0 | 1287.0 | 1287.0 | 1632.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 307.0 | 2.0 | 27.0 | 64.0 | 152.0 | 555.0 | 1202.0 | 1202.0 | 1527.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 278.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 52.0 | 134.0 | 510.0 | 1115.0 | 1115.0 | 1419.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 245.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 39.0 | 114.0 | 458.0 | 1013.0 | 1013.0 | 1293.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 244.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 38.0 | 112.0 | 456.0 | 1012.0 | 1012.0 | 1292.0 |
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