Prediction 3543
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Rio Grande do Sul |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=RS (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 168.0 | 397.0 | 397.0 | 507.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 74.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 168.0 | 403.0 | 403.0 | 517.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 162.0 | 395.0 | 395.0 | 509.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 66.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 160.0 | 398.0 | 398.0 | 514.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 159.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 517.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 63.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 159.0 | 404.0 | 404.0 | 526.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 63.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 160.0 | 409.0 | 409.0 | 534.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 163.0 | 419.0 | 419.0 | 548.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 168.0 | 433.0 | 433.0 | 566.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 167.0 | 434.0 | 434.0 | 568.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 66.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 169.0 | 440.0 | 440.0 | 577.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 148.0 | 400.0 | 400.0 | 528.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 69.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 176.0 | 460.0 | 460.0 | 605.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 79.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 193.0 | 498.0 | 498.0 | 654.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 93.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 217.0 | 550.0 | 550.0 | 720.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 101.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 232.0 | 582.0 | 582.0 | 762.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 131.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 | 281.0 | 687.0 | 687.0 | 895.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 136.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.0 | 292.0 | 711.0 | 711.0 | 926.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 231.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 99.0 | 450.0 | 1042.0 | 1042.0 | 1348.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 418.0 | 18.0 | 49.0 | 96.0 | 211.0 | 762.0 | 1695.0 | 1695.0 | 2177.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 796.0 | 102.0 | 157.0 | 239.0 | 437.0 | 1394.0 | 3020.0 | 3020.0 | 3863.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 1265.0 | 207.0 | 290.0 | 415.0 | 717.0 | 2181.0 | 4675.0 | 4675.0 | 5970.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 1523.0 | 263.0 | 362.0 | 510.0 | 870.0 | 2617.0 | 5600.0 | 5600.0 | 7151.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 1918.0 | 350.0 | 473.0 | 656.0 | 1104.0 | 3284.0 | 7015.0 | 7015.0 | 8957.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 2236.0 | 418.0 | 560.0 | 773.0 | 1291.0 | 3821.0 | 8162.0 | 8162.0 | 10424.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 2396.0 | 452.0 | 604.0 | 831.0 | 1385.0 | 4096.0 | 8758.0 | 8758.0 | 11190.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 2729.0 | 523.0 | 695.0 | 952.0 | 1581.0 | 4662.0 | 9969.0 | 9969.0 | 12741.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 2747.0 | 525.0 | 698.0 | 957.0 | 1590.0 | 4696.0 | 10058.0 | 10058.0 | 12860.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 2625.0 | 497.0 | 662.0 | 910.0 | 1516.0 | 4496.0 | 9648.0 | 9648.0 | 12343.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 2119.0 | 385.0 | 519.0 | 721.0 | 1215.0 | 3646.0 | 7854.0 | 7854.0 | 10058.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 1484.0 | 245.0 | 341.0 | 485.0 | 838.0 | 2576.0 | 5590.0 | 5590.0 | 7169.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 1176.0 | 177.0 | 255.0 | 371.0 | 655.0 | 2057.0 | 4492.0 | 4492.0 | 5768.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 653.0 | 64.0 | 109.0 | 177.0 | 345.0 | 1175.0 | 2615.0 | 2615.0 | 3371.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 484.0 | 27.0 | 62.0 | 115.0 | 245.0 | 889.0 | 2009.0 | 2009.0 | 2597.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 257.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 111.0 | 504.0 | 1190.0 | 1190.0 | 1550.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 175.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 62.0 | 366.0 | 895.0 | 895.0 | 1173.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 133.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 38.0 | 295.0 | 745.0 | 745.0 | 981.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 113.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 263.0 | 684.0 | 684.0 | 906.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 107.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 257.0 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 905.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 93.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 236.0 | 642.0 | 642.0 | 859.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 84.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 222.0 | 619.0 | 619.0 | 834.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 81.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 219.0 | 620.0 | 620.0 | 838.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 79.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 217.0 | 623.0 | 623.0 | 844.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 74.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 211.0 | 614.0 | 614.0 | 835.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 70.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 205.0 | 605.0 | 605.0 | 826.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 203.0 | 607.0 | 607.0 | 831.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 197.0 | 599.0 | 599.0 | 822.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 63.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 196.0 | 600.0 | 600.0 | 826.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 190.0 | 590.0 | 590.0 | 814.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 195.0 | 604.0 | 604.0 | 835.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 189.0 | 594.0 | 594.0 | 823.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 186.0 | 590.0 | 590.0 | 819.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
