Prediction 3544
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Santa Catarina |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=SC (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 210.0 | 482.0 | 482.0 | 613.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 104.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 218.0 | 504.0 | 504.0 | 644.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 118.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 | 243.0 | 558.0 | 558.0 | 712.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 101.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 218.0 | 517.0 | 517.0 | 665.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 101.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 220.0 | 526.0 | 526.0 | 678.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 214.0 | 519.0 | 519.0 | 672.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 108.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 235.0 | 567.0 | 567.0 | 734.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 129.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41.0 | 271.0 | 644.0 | 644.0 | 833.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 171.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 66.0 | 342.0 | 793.0 | 793.0 | 1023.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 191.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 78.0 | 377.0 | 869.0 | 869.0 | 1121.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 159.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 58.0 | 327.0 | 773.0 | 773.0 | 1002.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 117.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 259.0 | 639.0 | 639.0 | 835.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 85.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 206.0 | 534.0 | 534.0 | 703.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 97.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 228.0 | 582.0 | 582.0 | 766.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 93.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 222.0 | 573.0 | 573.0 | 755.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 103.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 239.0 | 613.0 | 613.0 | 807.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 138.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.0 | 300.0 | 745.0 | 745.0 | 976.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 208.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 83.0 | 419.0 | 998.0 | 998.0 | 1301.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 318.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 54.0 | 147.0 | 606.0 | 1401.0 | 1401.0 | 1817.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 458.0 | 21.0 | 54.0 | 105.0 | 229.0 | 844.0 | 1914.0 | 1914.0 | 2476.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 958.0 | 128.0 | 191.0 | 287.0 | 524.0 | 1696.0 | 3744.0 | 3744.0 | 4822.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 1605.0 | 264.0 | 367.0 | 522.0 | 902.0 | 2800.0 | 6126.0 | 6126.0 | 7880.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 2161.0 | 380.0 | 516.0 | 721.0 | 1227.0 | 3754.0 | 8200.0 | 8200.0 | 10547.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 3013.0 | 558.0 | 744.0 | 1026.0 | 1723.0 | 5216.0 | 11380.0 | 11380.0 | 14640.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 4189.0 | 801.0 | 1058.0 | 1446.0 | 2407.0 | 7237.0 | 15783.0 | 15783.0 | 20311.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 4689.0 | 901.0 | 1188.0 | 1621.0 | 2695.0 | 8106.0 | 17710.0 | 17710.0 | 22805.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 5030.0 | 968.0 | 1274.0 | 1738.0 | 2889.0 | 8705.0 | 19053.0 | 19053.0 | 24551.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 6212.0 | 1208.0 | 1585.0 | 2155.0 | 3572.0 | 10750.0 | 23553.0 | 23553.0 | 30364.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 5666.0 | 1090.0 | 1434.0 | 1955.0 | 3250.0 | 9825.0 | 21581.0 | 21581.0 | 27843.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 5788.0 | 1110.0 | 1461.0 | 1993.0 | 3316.0 | 10049.0 | 22112.0 | 22112.0 | 28545.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 4791.0 | 902.0 | 1193.0 | 1634.0 | 2734.0 | 8342.0 | 18408.0 | 18408.0 | 23783.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 3772.0 | 690.0 | 920.0 | 1270.0 | 2141.0 | 6590.0 | 14593.0 | 14593.0 | 18870.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 2946.0 | 520.0 | 700.0 | 975.0 | 1661.0 | 5169.0 | 11490.0 | 11490.0 | 14871.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 1889.0 | 304.0 | 421.0 | 601.0 | 1049.0 | 3345.0 | 7489.0 | 7489.0 | 9708.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 1264.0 | 176.0 | 257.0 | 380.0 | 687.0 | 2264.0 | 5116.0 | 5116.0 | 6644.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 873.0 | 96.0 | 154.0 | 241.0 | 461.0 | 1587.0 | 3627.0 | 3627.0 | 4722.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 646.0 | 50.0 | 94.0 | 161.0 | 330.0 | 1195.0 | 2766.0 | 2766.0 | 3608.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 439.0 | 6.0 | 38.0 | 86.0 | 208.0 | 844.0 | 2010.0 | 2010.0 | 2641.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 282.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 116.0 | 574.0 | 1427.0 | 1427.0 | 1891.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 217.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 78.0 | 464.0 | 1192.0 | 1192.0 | 1592.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 161.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.0 | 369.0 | 988.0 | 988.0 | 1329.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 133.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 320.0 | 885.0 | 885.0 | 1199.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 131.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 321.0 | 896.0 | 896.0 | 1218.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 118.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 298.0 | 852.0 | 852.0 | 1163.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 113.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 293.0 | 847.0 | 847.0 | 1159.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 118.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 305.0 | 882.0 | 882.0 | 1210.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 113.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 296.0 | 869.0 | 869.0 | 1196.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 95.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 264.0 | 797.0 | 797.0 | 1102.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 93.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 263.0 | 799.0 | 799.0 | 1108.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 259.0 | 795.0 | 795.0 | 1104.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 85.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 250.0 | 779.0 | 779.0 | 1085.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 82.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 247.0 | 775.0 | 775.0 | 1081.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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