Prediction 3546
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | São Paulo |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=SP (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 1113.0 | 228.0 | 304.0 | 415.0 | 673.0 | 1804.0 | 3540.0 | 3540.0 | 4393.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 1142.0 | 224.0 | 302.0 | 416.0 | 682.0 | 1872.0 | 3733.0 | 3733.0 | 4657.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 1141.0 | 214.0 | 291.0 | 405.0 | 673.0 | 1891.0 | 3834.0 | 3834.0 | 4808.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 1229.0 | 226.0 | 308.0 | 430.0 | 719.0 | 2056.0 | 4225.0 | 4225.0 | 5321.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 1362.0 | 248.0 | 338.0 | 472.0 | 792.0 | 2297.0 | 4778.0 | 4778.0 | 6045.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 1476.0 | 265.0 | 361.0 | 505.0 | 852.0 | 2508.0 | 5283.0 | 5283.0 | 6712.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 1635.0 | 291.0 | 397.0 | 555.0 | 939.0 | 2799.0 | 5964.0 | 5964.0 | 7607.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 1862.0 | 330.0 | 449.0 | 628.0 | 1064.0 | 3207.0 | 6907.0 | 6907.0 | 8843.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 2167.0 | 385.0 | 521.0 | 727.0 | 1233.0 | 3753.0 | 8167.0 | 8167.0 | 10493.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 2339.0 | 410.0 | 555.0 | 776.0 | 1323.0 | 4081.0 | 8977.0 | 8977.0 | 11576.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 2383.0 | 407.0 | 554.0 | 779.0 | 1337.0 | 4191.0 | 9322.0 | 9322.0 | 12065.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 2129.0 | 345.0 | 477.0 | 677.0 | 1180.0 | 3780.0 | 8515.0 | 8515.0 | 11063.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 3754.0 | 653.0 | 879.0 | 1225.0 | 2097.0 | 6660.0 | 15069.0 | 15069.0 | 19622.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 4597.0 | 799.0 | 1073.0 | 1493.0 | 2559.0 | 8197.0 | 18710.0 | 18710.0 | 24437.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 5617.0 | 972.0 | 1304.0 | 1814.0 | 3114.0 | 10069.0 | 23185.0 | 23185.0 | 30373.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 6590.0 | 1131.0 | 1516.0 | 2112.0 | 3636.0 | 11880.0 | 27599.0 | 27599.0 | 36263.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 8484.0 | 1450.0 | 1941.0 | 2703.0 | 4663.0 | 15371.0 | 36005.0 | 36005.0 | 47443.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 9796.0 | 1655.0 | 2217.0 | 3093.0 | 5356.0 | 17847.0 | 42163.0 | 42163.0 | 55715.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 11394.0 | 1902.0 | 2552.0 | 3566.0 | 6199.0 | 20872.0 | 49719.0 | 49719.0 | 65880.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 12469.0 | 2052.0 | 2759.0 | 3865.0 | 6748.0 | 22968.0 | 55163.0 | 55163.0 | 73290.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 14891.0 | 2425.0 | 3263.0 | 4578.0 | 8022.0 | 27571.0 | 66734.0 | 66734.0 | 88893.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 16615.0 | 2671.0 | 3599.0 | 5062.0 | 8906.0 | 30923.0 | 75424.0 | 75424.0 | 100724.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 18806.0 | 2986.0 | 4030.0 | 5679.0 | 10032.0 | 35178.0 | 86445.0 | 86445.0 | 115726.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 19658.0 | 3077.0 | 4162.0 | 5881.0 | 10434.0 | 36959.0 | 91492.0 | 91492.0 | 122777.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 19910.0 | 3071.0 | 4164.0 | 5900.0 | 10515.0 | 37620.0 | 93802.0 | 93802.0 | 126171.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 21627.0 | 3295.0 | 4475.0 | 6354.0 | 11370.0 | 41056.0 | 103076.0 | 103076.0 | 138957.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 22215.0 | 3339.0 | 4545.0 | 6470.0 | 11625.0 | 42370.0 | 107094.0 | 107094.0 | 144691.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 22392.0 | 3321.0 | 4530.0 | 6465.0 | 11664.0 | 42904.0 | 109160.0 | 109160.0 | 147798.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 20194.0 | 2947.0 | 4033.0 | 5773.0 | 10467.0 | 38874.0 | 99556.0 | 99556.0 | 135078.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 18084.0 | 2596.0 | 3564.0 | 5120.0 | 9328.0 | 34973.0 | 90139.0 | 90139.0 | 122551.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 14533.0 | 2043.0 | 2819.0 | 4067.0 | 7455.0 | 28243.0 | 73265.0 | 73265.0 | 99812.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 11661.0 | 1602.0 | 2223.0 | 3223.0 | 5947.0 | 22772.0 | 59451.0 | 59451.0 | 81154.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 8079.0 | 1070.0 | 1500.0 | 2194.0 | 4089.0 | 15870.0 | 41717.0 | 41717.0 | 57063.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 6191.0 | 790.0 | 1119.0 | 1652.0 | 3110.0 | 12231.0 | 32368.0 | 32368.0 | 44362.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 4721.0 | 575.0 | 826.0 | 1233.0 | 2351.0 | 9384.0 | 25007.0 | 25007.0 | 34342.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 3674.0 | 423.0 | 618.0 | 936.0 | 1811.0 | 7352.0 | 19729.0 | 19729.0 | 27147.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 2853.0 | 305.0 | 457.0 | 705.0 | 1391.0 | 5752.0 | 15552.0 | 15552.0 | 21443.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 2284.0 | 221.0 | 344.0 | 543.0 | 1096.0 | 4652.0 | 12715.0 | 12715.0 | 17586.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 1623.0 | 128.0 | 216.0 | 359.0 | 759.0 | 3355.0 | 9302.0 | 9302.0 | 12913.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 1409.0 | 96.0 | 173.0 | 298.0 | 648.0 | 2945.0 | 8256.0 | 8256.0 | 11497.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 1192.0 | 65.0 | 130.0 | 237.0 | 537.0 | 2521.0 | 7152.0 | 7152.0 | 9993.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 1023.0 | 41.0 | 97.0 | 190.0 | 451.0 | 2192.0 | 6293.0 | 6293.0 | 8820.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 931.0 | 28.0 | 79.0 | 163.0 | 402.0 | 2014.0 | 5843.0 | 5843.0 | 8214.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 834.0 | 14.0 | 60.0 | 136.0 | 353.0 | 1827.0 | 5358.0 | 5358.0 | 7554.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 745.0 | 2.0 | 43.0 | 112.0 | 308.0 | 1652.0 | 4900.0 | 4900.0 | 6928.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 691.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 96.0 | 280.0 | 1547.0 | 4632.0 | 4632.0 | 6567.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 609.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 74.0 | 239.0 | 1383.0 | 4191.0 | 4191.0 | 5959.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 579.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 65.0 | 223.0 | 1327.0 | 4057.0 | 4057.0 | 5783.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 628.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 76.0 | 245.0 | 1438.0 | 4411.0 | 4411.0 | 6296.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 638.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 77.0 | 248.0 | 1466.0 | 4520.0 | 4520.0 | 6465.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 625.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 72.0 | 240.0 | 1445.0 | 4485.0 | 4485.0 | 6429.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 616.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 69.0 | 235.0 | 1432.0 | 4476.0 | 4476.0 | 6427.0 |
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Interval Bounds
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