Prediction 3549
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Alagoas |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=AL (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 60.0 | 144.0 | 144.0 | 179.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 65.0 | 154.0 | 154.0 | 192.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 55.0 | 140.0 | 140.0 | 177.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 52.0 | 139.0 | 139.0 | 176.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 56.0 | 146.0 | 146.0 | 186.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 55.0 | 146.0 | 146.0 | 186.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 141.0 | 141.0 | 181.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.0 | 136.0 | 136.0 | 176.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 48.0 | 141.0 | 141.0 | 182.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45.0 | 138.0 | 138.0 | 179.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41.0 | 132.0 | 132.0 | 173.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 126.0 | 126.0 | 166.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 49.0 | 148.0 | 148.0 | 192.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 67.0 | 180.0 | 180.0 | 231.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74.0 | 193.0 | 193.0 | 247.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 191.0 | 191.0 | 245.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 84.0 | 213.0 | 213.0 | 273.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 33.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 94.0 | 231.0 | 231.0 | 295.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 91.0 | 229.0 | 229.0 | 292.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 95.0 | 237.0 | 237.0 | 303.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 44.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 111.0 | 265.0 | 265.0 | 337.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 125.0 | 292.0 | 292.0 | 369.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 54.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 127.0 | 296.0 | 296.0 | 375.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 63.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 140.0 | 322.0 | 322.0 | 406.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 66.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 145.0 | 332.0 | 332.0 | 419.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 191.0 | 414.0 | 414.0 | 518.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 108.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.0 | 210.0 | 450.0 | 450.0 | 562.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 120.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 48.0 | 228.0 | 484.0 | 484.0 | 604.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 139.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 60.0 | 258.0 | 539.0 | 539.0 | 671.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 170.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 25.0 | 80.0 | 305.0 | 624.0 | 624.0 | 775.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 193.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 35.0 | 95.0 | 340.0 | 690.0 | 690.0 | 856.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 218.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 46.0 | 111.0 | 378.0 | 760.0 | 760.0 | 941.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 215.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 44.0 | 109.0 | 375.0 | 756.0 | 756.0 | 937.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 238.0 | 2.0 | 24.0 | 54.0 | 124.0 | 410.0 | 823.0 | 823.0 | 1019.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 255.0 | 7.0 | 29.0 | 62.0 | 135.0 | 437.0 | 874.0 | 874.0 | 1082.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 270.0 | 10.0 | 34.0 | 68.0 | 144.0 | 460.0 | 918.0 | 918.0 | 1136.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 247.0 | 3.0 | 26.0 | 57.0 | 129.0 | 427.0 | 861.0 | 861.0 | 1067.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 245.0 | 2.0 | 24.0 | 55.0 | 126.0 | 425.0 | 860.0 | 860.0 | 1068.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 238.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 52.0 | 122.0 | 416.0 | 849.0 | 849.0 | 1056.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 254.0 | 3.0 | 26.0 | 58.0 | 131.0 | 442.0 | 899.0 | 899.0 | 1119.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 238.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 50.0 | 121.0 | 419.0 | 860.0 | 860.0 | 1072.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 212.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 38.0 | 103.0 | 380.0 | 791.0 | 791.0 | 989.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 207.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 35.0 | 99.0 | 373.0 | 782.0 | 782.0 | 979.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 177.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 79.0 | 328.0 | 699.0 | 699.0 | 879.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 180.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 81.0 | 334.0 | 713.0 | 713.0 | 897.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 153.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 63.0 | 292.0 | 636.0 | 636.0 | 804.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 147.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 59.0 | 284.0 | 625.0 | 625.0 | 790.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 145.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 57.0 | 282.0 | 621.0 | 621.0 | 787.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 124.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 43.0 | 249.0 | 561.0 | 561.0 | 714.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 126.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45.0 | 253.0 | 572.0 | 572.0 | 727.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 118.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 | 241.0 | 550.0 | 550.0 | 701.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 88.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 195.0 | 463.0 | 463.0 | 595.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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