Prediction 3550
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Amazonas |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=AM (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 116.0 | 235.0 | 235.0 | 286.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 120.0 | 246.0 | 246.0 | 300.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 121.0 | 249.0 | 249.0 | 305.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 131.0 | 269.0 | 269.0 | 329.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 73.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 141.0 | 288.0 | 288.0 | 353.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 80.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 152.0 | 309.0 | 309.0 | 378.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 93.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 37.0 | 172.0 | 344.0 | 344.0 | 421.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 39.0 | 178.0 | 357.0 | 357.0 | 438.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 108.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 46.0 | 196.0 | 391.0 | 391.0 | 479.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 114.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 50.0 | 206.0 | 411.0 | 411.0 | 504.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 39.0 | 187.0 | 383.0 | 383.0 | 471.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 76.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 154.0 | 330.0 | 330.0 | 410.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 133.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 61.0 | 237.0 | 473.0 | 473.0 | 581.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 155.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 25.0 | 75.0 | 270.0 | 533.0 | 533.0 | 654.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 167.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 31.0 | 83.0 | 290.0 | 571.0 | 571.0 | 700.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 168.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 30.0 | 83.0 | 292.0 | 578.0 | 578.0 | 710.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 200.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 44.0 | 104.0 | 340.0 | 665.0 | 665.0 | 815.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 204.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 45.0 | 106.0 | 347.0 | 681.0 | 681.0 | 836.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 207.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 46.0 | 108.0 | 353.0 | 695.0 | 695.0 | 854.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 185.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 35.0 | 92.0 | 322.0 | 644.0 | 644.0 | 795.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 207.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 45.0 | 107.0 | 356.0 | 708.0 | 708.0 | 872.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 193.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 37.0 | 97.0 | 337.0 | 676.0 | 676.0 | 835.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 202.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 41.0 | 102.0 | 351.0 | 705.0 | 705.0 | 871.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 191.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 35.0 | 94.0 | 336.0 | 681.0 | 681.0 | 843.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 174.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 26.0 | 82.0 | 311.0 | 639.0 | 639.0 | 794.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 163.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 75.0 | 296.0 | 614.0 | 614.0 | 765.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 155.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 69.0 | 286.0 | 597.0 | 597.0 | 745.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 148.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 64.0 | 275.0 | 581.0 | 581.0 | 726.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 126.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 49.0 | 243.0 | 525.0 | 525.0 | 659.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 122.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 46.0 | 238.0 | 517.0 | 517.0 | 650.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 115.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.0 | 228.0 | 500.0 | 500.0 | 630.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 106.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 215.0 | 477.0 | 477.0 | 603.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 95.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 197.0 | 447.0 | 447.0 | 567.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 87.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 186.0 | 427.0 | 427.0 | 543.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 85.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 184.0 | 425.0 | 425.0 | 541.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 82.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 179.0 | 417.0 | 417.0 | 531.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 76.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 170.0 | 402.0 | 402.0 | 514.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 147.0 | 360.0 | 360.0 | 464.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 66.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 157.0 | 380.0 | 380.0 | 488.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 148.0 | 365.0 | 365.0 | 471.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 144.0 | 359.0 | 359.0 | 463.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 141.0 | 354.0 | 354.0 | 457.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 54.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 140.0 | 354.0 | 354.0 | 458.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 127.0 | 331.0 | 331.0 | 430.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 43.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 123.0 | 325.0 | 325.0 | 423.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 120.0 | 319.0 | 319.0 | 417.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 129.0 | 337.0 | 337.0 | 439.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 42.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 124.0 | 328.0 | 328.0 | 429.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 143.0 | 366.0 | 366.0 | 476.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 51.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 138.0 | 358.0 | 358.0 | 466.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 158.0 | 397.0 | 397.0 | 515.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 71.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 171.0 | 422.0 | 422.0 | 547.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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