Prediction 3551
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Amapá |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=AP (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 36.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 75.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 36.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 75.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 34.0 | 63.0 | 63.0 | 74.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 36.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 76.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 34.0 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 75.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 61.0 | 61.0 | 72.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 56.0 | 56.0 | 67.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 54.0 | 54.0 | 64.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 54.0 | 54.0 | 64.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 53.0 | 53.0 | 63.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 53.0 | 53.0 | 64.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 66.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 40.0 | 72.0 | 72.0 | 84.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 39.0 | 72.0 | 72.0 | 84.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 42.0 | 76.0 | 76.0 | 88.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 45.0 | 79.0 | 79.0 | 92.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 53.0 | 89.0 | 89.0 | 102.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 50.0 | 85.0 | 85.0 | 98.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 51.0 | 87.0 | 87.0 | 100.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 49.0 | 84.0 | 84.0 | 98.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 16.0 | 57.0 | 94.0 | 94.0 | 108.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 39.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 20.0 | 61.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 114.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 17.0 | 57.0 | 95.0 | 95.0 | 109.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 48.0 | 84.0 | 84.0 | 97.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 51.0 | 88.0 | 88.0 | 101.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 | 57.0 | 94.0 | 94.0 | 109.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 48.0 | 84.0 | 84.0 | 97.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 45.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 | 93.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 42.0 | 76.0 | 76.0 | 89.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 40.0 | 74.0 | 74.0 | 87.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 44.0 | 79.0 | 79.0 | 92.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 38.0 | 71.0 | 71.0 | 84.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 66.0 | 66.0 | 79.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 67.0 | 67.0 | 79.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 65.0 | 65.0 | 77.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 62.0 | 62.0 | 73.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 62.0 | 62.0 | 74.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 59.0 | 59.0 | 71.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 61.0 | 61.0 | 73.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 63.0 | 63.0 | 75.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 61.0 | 61.0 | 72.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 64.0 | 64.0 | 76.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 68.0 | 68.0 | 81.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 40.0 | 74.0 | 74.0 | 87.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 39.0 | 73.0 | 73.0 | 86.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 73.0 | 73.0 | 86.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 70.0 | 70.0 | 83.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 72.0 | 72.0 | 85.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 40.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 88.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 43.0 | 80.0 | 80.0 | 93.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 46.0 | 83.0 | 83.0 | 97.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 47.0 | 84.0 | 84.0 | 98.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
