Prediction 3552
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Bahia |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=BA (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 371.0 | 68.0 | 98.0 | 140.0 | 230.0 | 573.0 | 1023.0 | 1023.0 | 1226.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 369.0 | 63.0 | 93.0 | 135.0 | 226.0 | 574.0 | 1036.0 | 1036.0 | 1246.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 363.0 | 58.0 | 88.0 | 129.0 | 220.0 | 570.0 | 1040.0 | 1040.0 | 1255.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 335.0 | 46.0 | 74.0 | 113.0 | 199.0 | 533.0 | 988.0 | 988.0 | 1196.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 346.0 | 47.0 | 76.0 | 116.0 | 205.0 | 554.0 | 1032.0 | 1032.0 | 1253.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 348.0 | 46.0 | 74.0 | 115.0 | 204.0 | 560.0 | 1051.0 | 1051.0 | 1279.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 371.0 | 51.0 | 81.0 | 124.0 | 218.0 | 597.0 | 1125.0 | 1125.0 | 1371.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 388.0 | 54.0 | 85.0 | 130.0 | 228.0 | 626.0 | 1184.0 | 1184.0 | 1445.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 398.0 | 55.0 | 87.0 | 132.0 | 234.0 | 644.0 | 1225.0 | 1225.0 | 1498.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 382.0 | 48.0 | 79.0 | 123.0 | 221.0 | 623.0 | 1195.0 | 1195.0 | 1465.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 341.0 | 34.0 | 63.0 | 103.0 | 193.0 | 564.0 | 1097.0 | 1097.0 | 1349.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 343.0 | 33.0 | 62.0 | 102.0 | 193.0 | 569.0 | 1111.0 | 1111.0 | 1369.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 632.0 | 118.0 | 165.0 | 232.0 | 382.0 | 1009.0 | 1919.0 | 1919.0 | 2353.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 733.0 | 146.0 | 199.0 | 275.0 | 448.0 | 1168.0 | 2219.0 | 2219.0 | 2721.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 829.0 | 172.0 | 231.0 | 316.0 | 508.0 | 1317.0 | 2504.0 | 2504.0 | 3072.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 952.0 | 205.0 | 273.0 | 369.0 | 587.0 | 1510.0 | 2871.0 | 2871.0 | 3525.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 1126.0 | 253.0 | 331.0 | 443.0 | 698.0 | 1781.0 | 3385.0 | 3385.0 | 4157.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 1244.0 | 284.0 | 370.0 | 492.0 | 773.0 | 1968.0 | 3745.0 | 3745.0 | 4603.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 1379.0 | 320.0 | 414.0 | 549.0 | 859.0 | 2182.0 | 4157.0 | 4157.0 | 5113.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 1491.0 | 348.0 | 449.0 | 595.0 | 929.0 | 2360.0 | 4505.0 | 4505.0 | 5545.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 1604.0 | 377.0 | 485.0 | 641.0 | 999.0 | 2540.0 | 4859.0 | 4859.0 | 5986.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 1731.0 | 410.0 | 526.0 | 693.0 | 1079.0 | 2744.0 | 5257.0 | 5257.0 | 6481.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 1832.0 | 434.0 | 557.0 | 734.0 | 1141.0 | 2906.0 | 5579.0 | 5579.0 | 6882.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 1811.0 | 426.0 | 547.0 | 722.0 | 1126.0 | 2879.0 | 5543.0 | 5543.0 | 6844.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 1792.0 | 418.0 | 538.0 | 711.0 | 1112.0 | 2855.0 | 5513.0 | 5513.0 | 6812.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1905.0 | 446.0 | 573.0 | 757.0 | 1182.0 | 3037.0 | 5872.0 | 5872.0 | 7261.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 1945.0 | 455.0 | 584.0 | 771.0 | 1205.0 | 3105.0 | 6015.0 | 6015.0 | 7443.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 1897.0 | 439.0 | 566.0 | 749.0 | 1173.0 | 3035.0 | 5894.0 | 5894.0 | 7298.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 1850.0 | 424.0 | 547.0 | 726.0 | 1141.0 | 2964.0 | 5770.0 | 5770.0 | 7150.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 1884.0 | 431.0 | 557.0 | 739.0 | 1161.0 | 3022.0 | 5894.0 | 5894.0 | 7308.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 1851.0 | 421.0 | 544.0 | 722.0 | 1138.0 | 2974.0 | 5811.0 | 5811.0 | 7210.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 1654.0 | 366.0 | 477.0 | 638.0 | 1012.0 | 2666.0 | 5229.0 | 5229.0 | 6494.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 1413.0 | 301.0 | 396.0 | 535.0 | 858.0 | 2289.0 | 4511.0 | 4511.0 | 5608.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 1332.0 | 278.0 | 369.0 | 500.0 | 806.0 | 2164.0 | 4275.0 | 4275.0 | 5319.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 1146.0 | 228.0 | 307.0 | 421.0 | 688.0 | 1873.0 | 3718.0 | 3718.0 | 4632.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 956.0 | 177.0 | 244.0 | 340.0 | 566.0 | 1572.0 | 3142.0 | 3142.0 | 3919.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 758.0 | 125.0 | 179.0 | 257.0 | 441.0 | 1260.0 | 2540.0 | 2540.0 | 3174.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 711.0 | 111.0 | 162.0 | 236.0 | 410.0 | 1188.0 | 2406.0 | 2406.0 | 3011.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 685.0 | 103.0 | 153.0 | 224.0 | 393.0 | 1149.0 | 2338.0 | 2338.0 | 2929.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 628.0 | 88.0 | 133.0 | 200.0 | 356.0 | 1061.0 | 2172.0 | 2172.0 | 2725.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 537.0 | 63.0 | 103.0 | 162.0 | 299.0 | 918.0 | 1898.0 | 1898.0 | 2386.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 482.0 | 49.0 | 85.0 | 138.0 | 264.0 | 831.0 | 1732.0 | 1732.0 | 2182.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 444.0 | 38.0 | 72.0 | 122.0 | 240.0 | 772.0 | 1620.0 | 1620.0 | 2044.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 401.0 | 27.0 | 58.0 | 104.0 | 212.0 | 704.0 | 1488.0 | 1488.0 | 1881.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 357.0 | 15.0 | 44.0 | 85.0 | 184.0 | 634.0 | 1353.0 | 1353.0 | 1713.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 332.0 | 8.0 | 35.0 | 75.0 | 168.0 | 595.0 | 1277.0 | 1277.0 | 1620.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 300.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 61.0 | 148.0 | 544.0 | 1179.0 | 1179.0 | 1499.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 277.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 52.0 | 134.0 | 508.0 | 1110.0 | 1110.0 | 1413.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 263.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 46.0 | 124.0 | 486.0 | 1067.0 | 1067.0 | 1361.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 249.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 40.0 | 116.0 | 464.0 | 1026.0 | 1026.0 | 1309.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 243.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 37.0 | 112.0 | 455.0 | 1010.0 | 1010.0 | 1290.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 235.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 34.0 | 107.0 | 443.0 | 987.0 | 987.0 | 1262.0 |
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