Prediction 3553
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Ceará |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=CE (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 118.0 | 250.0 | 250.0 | 308.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 107.0 | 237.0 | 237.0 | 295.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 99.0 | 226.0 | 226.0 | 282.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 105.0 | 239.0 | 239.0 | 299.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 123.0 | 271.0 | 271.0 | 338.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 126.0 | 280.0 | 280.0 | 349.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 143.0 | 310.0 | 310.0 | 387.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 66.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 141.0 | 310.0 | 310.0 | 387.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 144.0 | 318.0 | 318.0 | 397.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 135.0 | 305.0 | 305.0 | 383.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 49.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 118.0 | 277.0 | 277.0 | 351.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 106.0 | 260.0 | 260.0 | 331.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 92.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 183.0 | 396.0 | 396.0 | 495.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 110.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.0 | 211.0 | 447.0 | 447.0 | 557.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 156.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 73.0 | 281.0 | 573.0 | 573.0 | 709.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 194.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 38.0 | 97.0 | 338.0 | 677.0 | 677.0 | 837.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 239.0 | 5.0 | 27.0 | 58.0 | 127.0 | 406.0 | 801.0 | 801.0 | 987.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 264.0 | 12.0 | 36.0 | 69.0 | 143.0 | 445.0 | 874.0 | 874.0 | 1076.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 302.0 | 23.0 | 49.0 | 86.0 | 168.0 | 504.0 | 984.0 | 984.0 | 1211.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 331.0 | 31.0 | 59.0 | 98.0 | 186.0 | 548.0 | 1068.0 | 1068.0 | 1314.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 395.0 | 50.0 | 81.0 | 126.0 | 228.0 | 646.0 | 1248.0 | 1248.0 | 1534.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 470.0 | 72.0 | 108.0 | 160.0 | 277.0 | 762.0 | 1462.0 | 1462.0 | 1795.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 522.0 | 86.0 | 126.0 | 183.0 | 311.0 | 843.0 | 1614.0 | 1614.0 | 1981.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 532.0 | 88.0 | 128.0 | 186.0 | 316.0 | 859.0 | 1648.0 | 1648.0 | 2024.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 580.0 | 101.0 | 145.0 | 207.0 | 347.0 | 934.0 | 1790.0 | 1790.0 | 2199.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 738.0 | 147.0 | 200.0 | 277.0 | 450.0 | 1176.0 | 2239.0 | 2239.0 | 2747.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 823.0 | 170.0 | 229.0 | 314.0 | 505.0 | 1308.0 | 2486.0 | 2486.0 | 3051.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 879.0 | 185.0 | 248.0 | 337.0 | 540.0 | 1395.0 | 2653.0 | 2653.0 | 3256.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 911.0 | 194.0 | 258.0 | 350.0 | 561.0 | 1448.0 | 2755.0 | 2755.0 | 3383.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 952.0 | 204.0 | 271.0 | 368.0 | 587.0 | 1513.0 | 2881.0 | 2881.0 | 3539.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 993.0 | 215.0 | 285.0 | 385.0 | 612.0 | 1578.0 | 3007.0 | 3007.0 | 3696.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 978.0 | 209.0 | 278.0 | 376.0 | 601.0 | 1556.0 | 2972.0 | 2972.0 | 3655.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 884.0 | 182.0 | 244.0 | 334.0 | 540.0 | 1415.0 | 2715.0 | 2715.0 | 3342.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 775.0 | 149.0 | 205.0 | 285.0 | 468.0 | 1247.0 | 2408.0 | 2408.0 | 2969.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 738.0 | 138.0 | 192.0 | 268.0 | 444.0 | 1193.0 | 2310.0 | 2310.0 | 2851.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 683.0 | 122.0 | 172.0 | 243.0 | 407.0 | 1108.0 | 2156.0 | 2156.0 | 2663.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 605.0 | 99.0 | 144.0 | 209.0 | 356.0 | 989.0 | 1937.0 | 1937.0 | 2396.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 544.0 | 81.0 | 122.0 | 181.0 | 316.0 | 897.0 | 1769.0 | 1769.0 | 2192.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 519.0 | 73.0 | 113.0 | 169.0 | 299.0 | 860.0 | 1704.0 | 1704.0 | 2113.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 442.0 | 51.0 | 85.0 | 135.0 | 249.0 | 741.0 | 1485.0 | 1485.0 | 1846.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 394.0 | 37.0 | 68.0 | 113.0 | 218.0 | 668.0 | 1349.0 | 1349.0 | 1681.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 379.0 | 32.0 | 63.0 | 107.0 | 208.0 | 647.0 | 1312.0 | 1312.0 | 1637.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 348.0 | 23.0 | 52.0 | 93.0 | 187.0 | 599.0 | 1224.0 | 1224.0 | 1530.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 313.0 | 13.0 | 39.0 | 77.0 | 165.0 | 545.0 | 1125.0 | 1125.0 | 1409.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 283.0 | 4.0 | 29.0 | 64.0 | 145.0 | 498.0 | 1038.0 | 1038.0 | 1302.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 239.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 45.0 | 116.0 | 430.0 | 910.0 | 910.0 | 1145.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 193.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 87.0 | 359.0 | 776.0 | 776.0 | 980.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 185.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 82.0 | 347.0 | 754.0 | 754.0 | 954.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 161.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 66.0 | 309.0 | 684.0 | 684.0 | 867.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 154.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 62.0 | 300.0 | 666.0 | 666.0 | 847.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 129.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45.0 | 260.0 | 591.0 | 591.0 | 754.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 118.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 38.0 | 242.0 | 558.0 | 558.0 | 713.0 |
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Interval Bounds
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