Prediction 3554
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Distrito Federal |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=DF (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 241.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 43.0 | 116.0 | 439.0 | 941.0 | 941.0 | 1189.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 243.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 39.0 | 113.0 | 452.0 | 993.0 | 993.0 | 1265.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 241.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 34.0 | 108.0 | 458.0 | 1034.0 | 1034.0 | 1328.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 253.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 34.0 | 112.0 | 487.0 | 1122.0 | 1122.0 | 1451.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 267.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 35.0 | 117.0 | 521.0 | 1224.0 | 1224.0 | 1592.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 284.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 37.0 | 124.0 | 561.0 | 1340.0 | 1340.0 | 1755.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 305.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 41.0 | 132.0 | 608.0 | 1478.0 | 1478.0 | 1947.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 323.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 43.0 | 139.0 | 650.0 | 1608.0 | 1608.0 | 2132.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 368.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 54.0 | 160.0 | 743.0 | 1861.0 | 1861.0 | 2480.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 399.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 59.0 | 173.0 | 811.0 | 2064.0 | 2064.0 | 2766.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 396.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 54.0 | 168.0 | 819.0 | 2128.0 | 2128.0 | 2871.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 140.0 | 745.0 | 1989.0 | 1989.0 | 2703.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 583.0 | 5.0 | 42.0 | 101.0 | 259.0 | 1200.0 | 3179.0 | 3179.0 | 4328.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 607.0 | 5.0 | 43.0 | 103.0 | 267.0 | 1262.0 | 3402.0 | 3402.0 | 4659.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 687.0 | 13.0 | 54.0 | 121.0 | 303.0 | 1437.0 | 3925.0 | 3925.0 | 5402.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 774.0 | 20.0 | 66.0 | 139.0 | 342.0 | 1629.0 | 4512.0 | 4512.0 | 6243.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 887.0 | 31.0 | 81.0 | 164.0 | 393.0 | 1877.0 | 5269.0 | 5269.0 | 7328.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 1002.0 | 41.0 | 97.0 | 188.0 | 444.0 | 2135.0 | 6080.0 | 6080.0 | 8498.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 1021.0 | 39.0 | 94.0 | 186.0 | 446.0 | 2201.0 | 6372.0 | 6372.0 | 8955.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 1074.0 | 40.0 | 97.0 | 193.0 | 465.0 | 2337.0 | 6874.0 | 6874.0 | 9713.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 1226.0 | 53.0 | 117.0 | 224.0 | 531.0 | 2687.0 | 8010.0 | 8010.0 | 11373.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 1339.0 | 61.0 | 129.0 | 243.0 | 577.0 | 2958.0 | 8948.0 | 8948.0 | 12769.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 1460.0 | 69.0 | 141.0 | 264.0 | 625.0 | 3253.0 | 9985.0 | 9985.0 | 14321.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 1565.0 | 74.0 | 151.0 | 281.0 | 666.0 | 3520.0 | 10964.0 | 10964.0 | 15804.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 1637.0 | 76.0 | 154.0 | 289.0 | 690.0 | 3719.0 | 11759.0 | 11759.0 | 17035.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1743.0 | 81.0 | 163.0 | 304.0 | 729.0 | 3995.0 | 12819.0 | 12819.0 | 18661.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 1909.0 | 91.0 | 179.0 | 332.0 | 794.0 | 4412.0 | 14356.0 | 14356.0 | 20998.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 1927.0 | 87.0 | 174.0 | 327.0 | 793.0 | 4501.0 | 14866.0 | 14866.0 | 21851.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 1915.0 | 80.0 | 166.0 | 316.0 | 778.0 | 4523.0 | 15165.0 | 15165.0 | 22399.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 1903.0 | 74.0 | 158.0 | 306.0 | 764.0 | 4544.0 | 15464.0 | 15464.0 | 22951.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 1870.0 | 66.0 | 147.0 | 291.0 | 741.0 | 4512.0 | 15587.0 | 15587.0 | 23245.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 1767.0 | 53.0 | 129.0 | 264.0 | 689.0 | 4317.0 | 15143.0 | 15143.0 | 22691.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 1532.0 | 30.0 | 95.0 | 212.0 | 583.0 | 3799.0 | 13551.0 | 13551.0 | 20405.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 1462.0 | 21.0 | 82.0 | 193.0 | 547.0 | 3669.0 | 13282.0 | 13282.0 | 20095.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 1267.0 | 3.0 | 56.0 | 152.0 | 461.0 | 3231.0 | 11894.0 | 11894.0 | 18083.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 1087.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 115.0 | 382.0 | 2820.0 | 10563.0 | 10563.0 | 16138.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 873.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 73.0 | 292.0 | 2317.0 | 8848.0 | 8848.0 | 13588.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 697.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 | 218.0 | 1900.0 | 7407.0 | 7407.0 | 11436.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 580.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 168.0 | 1621.0 | 6452.0 | 6452.0 | 10013.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 517.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 141.0 | 1477.0 | 5984.0 | 5984.0 | 9332.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 460.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 117.0 | 1345.0 | 5551.0 | 5551.0 | 8701.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 416.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 98.0 | 1243.0 | 5226.0 | 5226.0 | 8231.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 389.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 86.0 | 1186.0 | 5066.0 | 5066.0 | 8015.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 352.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70.0 | 1100.0 | 4788.0 | 4788.0 | 7611.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 347.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 67.0 | 1097.0 | 4840.0 | 4840.0 | 7726.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 317.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 54.0 | 1027.0 | 4609.0 | 4609.0 | 7392.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 321.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 54.0 | 1048.0 | 4760.0 | 4760.0 | 7666.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 326.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 55.0 | 1073.0 | 4931.0 | 4931.0 | 7971.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 340.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 58.0 | 1120.0 | 5199.0 | 5199.0 | 8437.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 325.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 52.0 | 1090.0 | 5136.0 | 5136.0 | 8370.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 346.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 58.0 | 1160.0 | 5512.0 | 5512.0 | 9016.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 328.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 1121.0 | 5405.0 | 5405.0 | 8877.0 |
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