Prediction 3555
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Espírito Santo |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=ES (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 1037.0 | 270.0 | 343.0 | 446.0 | 673.0 | 1574.0 | 2818.0 | 2818.0 | 3395.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 1047.0 | 262.0 | 336.0 | 440.0 | 672.0 | 1606.0 | 2919.0 | 2919.0 | 3533.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 1035.0 | 249.0 | 321.0 | 425.0 | 656.0 | 1605.0 | 2959.0 | 2959.0 | 3599.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 1048.0 | 243.0 | 316.0 | 421.0 | 657.0 | 1640.0 | 3064.0 | 3064.0 | 3743.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 1077.0 | 242.0 | 318.0 | 425.0 | 670.0 | 1700.0 | 3216.0 | 3216.0 | 3944.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 1051.0 | 227.0 | 300.0 | 405.0 | 646.0 | 1675.0 | 3211.0 | 3211.0 | 3955.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 1135.0 | 242.0 | 321.0 | 434.0 | 694.0 | 1822.0 | 3528.0 | 3528.0 | 4360.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 1270.0 | 271.0 | 357.0 | 483.0 | 774.0 | 2048.0 | 4002.0 | 4002.0 | 4961.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 1380.0 | 292.0 | 385.0 | 521.0 | 837.0 | 2239.0 | 4417.0 | 4417.0 | 5493.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 1499.0 | 314.0 | 415.0 | 561.0 | 905.0 | 2446.0 | 4870.0 | 4870.0 | 6076.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 1434.0 | 289.0 | 385.0 | 526.0 | 857.0 | 2360.0 | 4752.0 | 4752.0 | 5950.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 1543.0 | 308.0 | 411.0 | 561.0 | 917.0 | 2552.0 | 5183.0 | 5183.0 | 6508.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 1978.0 | 406.0 | 536.0 | 726.0 | 1178.0 | 3277.0 | 6692.0 | 6692.0 | 8422.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 2154.0 | 439.0 | 579.0 | 785.0 | 1278.0 | 3587.0 | 7386.0 | 7386.0 | 9321.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 2338.0 | 473.0 | 623.0 | 846.0 | 1381.0 | 3914.0 | 8125.0 | 8125.0 | 10282.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 2347.0 | 465.0 | 615.0 | 838.0 | 1377.0 | 3953.0 | 8277.0 | 8277.0 | 10505.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 2264.0 | 436.0 | 581.0 | 796.0 | 1319.0 | 3840.0 | 8113.0 | 8113.0 | 10326.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 2326.0 | 441.0 | 589.0 | 810.0 | 1348.0 | 3967.0 | 8449.0 | 8449.0 | 10781.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 2495.0 | 469.0 | 627.0 | 863.0 | 1440.0 | 4274.0 | 9169.0 | 9169.0 | 11730.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 2511.0 | 464.0 | 621.0 | 858.0 | 1441.0 | 4324.0 | 9350.0 | 9350.0 | 11991.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 2703.0 | 496.0 | 665.0 | 919.0 | 1545.0 | 4676.0 | 10178.0 | 10178.0 | 13083.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 2876.0 | 524.0 | 702.0 | 971.0 | 1638.0 | 4997.0 | 10951.0 | 10951.0 | 14108.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 2970.0 | 534.0 | 717.0 | 994.0 | 1684.0 | 5183.0 | 11436.0 | 11436.0 | 14767.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 2901.0 | 511.0 | 689.0 | 960.0 | 1635.0 | 5089.0 | 11312.0 | 11312.0 | 14640.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 2821.0 | 486.0 | 659.0 | 922.0 | 1581.0 | 4975.0 | 11136.0 | 11136.0 | 14445.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 2970.0 | 508.0 | 689.0 | 965.0 | 1659.0 | 5260.0 | 11846.0 | 11846.0 | 15397.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 2952.0 | 497.0 | 676.0 | 950.0 | 1641.0 | 5251.0 | 11904.0 | 11904.0 | 15505.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 2880.0 | 475.0 | 650.0 | 917.0 | 1592.0 | 5147.0 | 11744.0 | 11744.0 | 15329.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 2777.0 | 449.0 | 616.0 | 874.0 | 1527.0 | 4988.0 | 11454.0 | 11454.0 | 14981.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 2656.0 | 420.0 | 579.0 | 826.0 | 1452.0 | 4795.0 | 11084.0 | 11084.0 | 14525.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 2518.0 | 388.0 | 539.0 | 772.0 | 1368.0 | 4567.0 | 10625.0 | 10625.0 | 13952.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 2223.0 | 328.0 | 461.0 | 668.0 | 1198.0 | 4058.0 | 9508.0 | 9508.0 | 12511.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 1948.0 | 273.0 | 391.0 | 573.0 | 1040.0 | 3581.0 | 8453.0 | 8453.0 | 11147.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 1913.0 | 263.0 | 378.0 | 557.0 | 1016.0 | 3531.0 | 8383.0 | 8383.0 | 11074.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 1799.0 | 239.0 | 347.0 | 515.0 | 949.0 | 3337.0 | 7971.0 | 7971.0 | 10550.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 1592.0 | 199.0 | 295.0 | 444.0 | 832.0 | 2974.0 | 7155.0 | 7155.0 | 9489.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 1460.0 | 173.0 | 261.0 | 399.0 | 756.0 | 2743.0 | 6645.0 | 6645.0 | 8829.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 1312.0 | 144.0 | 224.0 | 348.0 | 672.0 | 2484.0 | 6061.0 | 6061.0 | 8070.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 1213.0 | 125.0 | 198.0 | 314.0 | 615.0 | 2312.0 | 5681.0 | 5681.0 | 7579.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 1054.0 | 95.0 | 160.0 | 261.0 | 527.0 | 2027.0 | 5025.0 | 5025.0 | 6719.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 964.0 | 78.0 | 138.0 | 231.0 | 475.0 | 1867.0 | 4663.0 | 4663.0 | 6247.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 904.0 | 67.0 | 122.0 | 210.0 | 441.0 | 1762.0 | 4431.0 | 4431.0 | 5948.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 866.0 | 59.0 | 112.0 | 197.0 | 419.0 | 1698.0 | 4294.0 | 4294.0 | 5774.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 794.0 | 46.0 | 95.0 | 173.0 | 379.0 | 1570.0 | 4001.0 | 4001.0 | 5390.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 743.0 | 36.0 | 82.0 | 156.0 | 350.0 | 1478.0 | 3793.0 | 3793.0 | 5119.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 673.0 | 24.0 | 66.0 | 133.0 | 311.0 | 1351.0 | 3496.0 | 3496.0 | 4728.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 612.0 | 13.0 | 52.0 | 114.0 | 278.0 | 1242.0 | 3239.0 | 3239.0 | 4389.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 552.0 | 2.0 | 38.0 | 94.0 | 245.0 | 1131.0 | 2976.0 | 2976.0 | 4041.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 596.0 | 9.0 | 46.0 | 107.0 | 267.0 | 1220.0 | 3211.0 | 3211.0 | 4363.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 552.0 | 1.0 | 36.0 | 93.0 | 243.0 | 1140.0 | 3023.0 | 3023.0 | 4115.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 511.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 80.0 | 221.0 | 1065.0 | 2845.0 | 2845.0 | 3879.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 521.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 81.0 | 225.0 | 1086.0 | 2910.0 | 2910.0 | 3972.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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