Prediction 3556
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Goiás |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=GO (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 349.0 | 78.0 | 106.0 | 145.0 | 226.0 | 517.0 | 874.0 | 874.0 | 1031.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 382.0 | 88.0 | 119.0 | 160.0 | 248.0 | 566.0 | 962.0 | 962.0 | 1136.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 375.0 | 82.0 | 112.0 | 154.0 | 241.0 | 560.0 | 961.0 | 961.0 | 1138.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 381.0 | 82.0 | 113.0 | 155.0 | 244.0 | 573.0 | 989.0 | 989.0 | 1174.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 477.0 | 115.0 | 152.0 | 202.0 | 311.0 | 710.0 | 1221.0 | 1221.0 | 1448.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 525.0 | 130.0 | 170.0 | 225.0 | 343.0 | 782.0 | 1348.0 | 1348.0 | 1601.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 607.0 | 157.0 | 202.0 | 264.0 | 399.0 | 902.0 | 1555.0 | 1555.0 | 1848.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 653.0 | 170.0 | 218.0 | 285.0 | 429.0 | 971.0 | 1679.0 | 1679.0 | 1998.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 743.0 | 199.0 | 253.0 | 328.0 | 490.0 | 1103.0 | 1910.0 | 1910.0 | 2274.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 717.0 | 187.0 | 240.0 | 312.0 | 470.0 | 1071.0 | 1866.0 | 1866.0 | 2226.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 511.0 | 112.0 | 152.0 | 206.0 | 325.0 | 778.0 | 1381.0 | 1381.0 | 1655.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 448.0 | 89.0 | 124.0 | 173.0 | 280.0 | 691.0 | 1240.0 | 1240.0 | 1490.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 1288.0 | 374.0 | 464.0 | 588.0 | 859.0 | 1908.0 | 3317.0 | 3317.0 | 3960.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 1459.0 | 428.0 | 529.0 | 668.0 | 974.0 | 2161.0 | 3763.0 | 3763.0 | 4497.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 1700.0 | 506.0 | 622.0 | 783.0 | 1137.0 | 2518.0 | 4390.0 | 4390.0 | 5249.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 1860.0 | 555.0 | 681.0 | 857.0 | 1244.0 | 2758.0 | 4818.0 | 4818.0 | 5766.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 2238.0 | 676.0 | 826.0 | 1036.0 | 1499.0 | 3317.0 | 5800.0 | 5800.0 | 6945.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 2357.0 | 710.0 | 868.0 | 1090.0 | 1577.0 | 3500.0 | 6136.0 | 6136.0 | 7353.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 2366.0 | 708.0 | 867.0 | 1089.0 | 1580.0 | 3520.0 | 6189.0 | 6189.0 | 7425.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 2367.0 | 704.0 | 863.0 | 1085.0 | 1577.0 | 3529.0 | 6223.0 | 6223.0 | 7472.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 2693.0 | 805.0 | 985.0 | 1237.0 | 1796.0 | 4016.0 | 7091.0 | 7091.0 | 8519.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 2867.0 | 857.0 | 1048.0 | 1315.0 | 1910.0 | 4280.0 | 7570.0 | 7570.0 | 9100.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 3072.0 | 918.0 | 1122.0 | 1409.0 | 2045.0 | 4591.0 | 8134.0 | 8134.0 | 9785.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 3209.0 | 957.0 | 1170.0 | 1469.0 | 2134.0 | 4801.0 | 8522.0 | 8522.0 | 10258.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 3143.0 | 932.0 | 1140.0 | 1434.0 | 2087.0 | 4711.0 | 8381.0 | 8381.0 | 10096.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 3260.0 | 964.0 | 1180.0 | 1485.0 | 2162.0 | 4890.0 | 8716.0 | 8716.0 | 10505.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 3301.0 | 973.0 | 1192.0 | 1500.0 | 2187.0 | 4958.0 | 8853.0 | 8853.0 | 10677.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 3207.0 | 940.0 | 1153.0 | 1452.0 | 2121.0 | 4825.0 | 8632.0 | 8632.0 | 10417.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 3159.0 | 921.0 | 1131.0 | 1426.0 | 2086.0 | 4758.0 | 8530.0 | 8530.0 | 10299.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 3197.0 | 930.0 | 1142.0 | 1441.0 | 2109.0 | 4821.0 | 8655.0 | 8655.0 | 10456.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 2969.0 | 856.0 | 1053.0 | 1331.0 | 1954.0 | 4485.0 | 8069.0 | 8069.0 | 9755.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 2574.0 | 730.0 | 902.0 | 1145.0 | 1688.0 | 3899.0 | 7036.0 | 7036.0 | 8512.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 2052.0 | 566.0 | 705.0 | 900.0 | 1338.0 | 3122.0 | 5656.0 | 5656.0 | 6851.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 1845.0 | 501.0 | 626.0 | 802.0 | 1198.0 | 2814.0 | 5114.0 | 5114.0 | 6198.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 1597.0 | 423.0 | 532.0 | 686.0 | 1031.0 | 2444.0 | 4457.0 | 4457.0 | 5407.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 1387.0 | 357.0 | 452.0 | 587.0 | 891.0 | 2132.0 | 3902.0 | 3902.0 | 4738.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 1191.0 | 296.0 | 379.0 | 496.0 | 759.0 | 1839.0 | 3381.0 | 3381.0 | 4110.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 919.0 | 210.0 | 276.0 | 368.0 | 577.0 | 1433.0 | 2662.0 | 2662.0 | 3244.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 750.0 | 158.0 | 212.0 | 289.0 | 464.0 | 1182.0 | 2216.0 | 2216.0 | 2706.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 636.0 | 122.0 | 169.0 | 236.0 | 387.0 | 1012.0 | 1914.0 | 1914.0 | 2343.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 551.0 | 95.0 | 137.0 | 196.0 | 330.0 | 885.0 | 1688.0 | 1688.0 | 2070.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 465.0 | 69.0 | 105.0 | 156.0 | 273.0 | 757.0 | 1459.0 | 1459.0 | 1793.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 458.0 | 66.0 | 101.0 | 152.0 | 267.0 | 747.0 | 1445.0 | 1445.0 | 1778.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 417.0 | 53.0 | 86.0 | 133.0 | 240.0 | 686.0 | 1336.0 | 1336.0 | 1646.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 419.0 | 53.0 | 86.0 | 133.0 | 241.0 | 690.0 | 1347.0 | 1347.0 | 1662.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 373.0 | 39.0 | 69.0 | 112.0 | 210.0 | 621.0 | 1223.0 | 1223.0 | 1511.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 359.0 | 34.0 | 64.0 | 105.0 | 201.0 | 601.0 | 1188.0 | 1188.0 | 1469.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 351.0 | 32.0 | 60.0 | 102.0 | 195.0 | 590.0 | 1170.0 | 1170.0 | 1448.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 374.0 | 38.0 | 68.0 | 111.0 | 210.0 | 626.0 | 1238.0 | 1238.0 | 1533.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 379.0 | 39.0 | 69.0 | 113.0 | 213.0 | 634.0 | 1255.0 | 1255.0 | 1554.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 384.0 | 40.0 | 71.0 | 115.0 | 216.0 | 642.0 | 1272.0 | 1272.0 | 1575.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 418.0 | 49.0 | 82.0 | 129.0 | 237.0 | 694.0 | 1371.0 | 1371.0 | 1697.0 |
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