Prediction 3557
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Maranhão |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=MA (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 67.0 | 142.0 | 142.0 | 173.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 74.0 | 154.0 | 154.0 | 187.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70.0 | 149.0 | 149.0 | 182.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 83.0 | 169.0 | 169.0 | 205.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 38.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 81.0 | 168.0 | 168.0 | 204.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 85.0 | 174.0 | 174.0 | 212.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 43.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 89.0 | 180.0 | 180.0 | 219.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 42.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 88.0 | 180.0 | 180.0 | 219.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 102.0 | 203.0 | 203.0 | 245.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 92.0 | 188.0 | 188.0 | 229.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 86.0 | 179.0 | 179.0 | 218.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 44.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 91.0 | 188.0 | 188.0 | 229.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 82.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 37.0 | 142.0 | 265.0 | 265.0 | 317.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 115.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 25.0 | 61.0 | 187.0 | 333.0 | 333.0 | 395.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 133.0 | 1.0 | 15.0 | 35.0 | 75.0 | 211.0 | 370.0 | 370.0 | 438.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 136.0 | 2.0 | 17.0 | 36.0 | 77.0 | 215.0 | 377.0 | 377.0 | 446.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 158.0 | 11.0 | 27.0 | 48.0 | 93.0 | 244.0 | 423.0 | 423.0 | 498.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 192.0 | 25.0 | 44.0 | 68.0 | 119.0 | 291.0 | 495.0 | 495.0 | 581.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 223.0 | 38.0 | 59.0 | 86.0 | 142.0 | 333.0 | 559.0 | 559.0 | 655.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 231.0 | 41.0 | 62.0 | 90.0 | 147.0 | 344.0 | 576.0 | 576.0 | 675.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 263.0 | 55.0 | 78.0 | 108.0 | 171.0 | 387.0 | 643.0 | 643.0 | 752.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 265.0 | 55.0 | 78.0 | 109.0 | 172.0 | 390.0 | 648.0 | 648.0 | 758.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 255.0 | 51.0 | 73.0 | 103.0 | 165.0 | 377.0 | 629.0 | 629.0 | 736.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 241.0 | 45.0 | 66.0 | 95.0 | 154.0 | 358.0 | 601.0 | 601.0 | 705.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 224.0 | 37.0 | 58.0 | 85.0 | 141.0 | 336.0 | 567.0 | 567.0 | 666.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 227.0 | 38.0 | 59.0 | 86.0 | 143.0 | 339.0 | 572.0 | 572.0 | 672.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 224.0 | 37.0 | 57.0 | 85.0 | 141.0 | 336.0 | 568.0 | 568.0 | 668.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 250.0 | 48.0 | 70.0 | 99.0 | 160.0 | 371.0 | 623.0 | 623.0 | 730.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 227.0 | 38.0 | 58.0 | 86.0 | 143.0 | 340.0 | 576.0 | 576.0 | 676.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 214.0 | 32.0 | 52.0 | 78.0 | 133.0 | 323.0 | 549.0 | 549.0 | 646.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 192.0 | 23.0 | 41.0 | 66.0 | 117.0 | 293.0 | 504.0 | 504.0 | 594.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 191.0 | 22.0 | 40.0 | 65.0 | 116.0 | 292.0 | 501.0 | 501.0 | 591.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 161.0 | 10.0 | 26.0 | 48.0 | 94.0 | 252.0 | 441.0 | 441.0 | 522.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 146.0 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 40.0 | 83.0 | 232.0 | 411.0 | 411.0 | 487.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 129.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 30.0 | 70.0 | 209.0 | 375.0 | 375.0 | 446.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 114.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 21.0 | 59.0 | 189.0 | 344.0 | 344.0 | 411.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 102.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 49.0 | 172.0 | 318.0 | 318.0 | 381.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 88.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 40.0 | 154.0 | 292.0 | 292.0 | 351.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 82.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 35.0 | 146.0 | 280.0 | 280.0 | 337.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 136.0 | 265.0 | 265.0 | 320.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 132.0 | 259.0 | 259.0 | 313.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 117.0 | 236.0 | 236.0 | 287.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 124.0 | 246.0 | 246.0 | 299.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 128.0 | 252.0 | 252.0 | 306.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 122.0 | 243.0 | 243.0 | 296.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 115.0 | 232.0 | 232.0 | 283.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 97.0 | 206.0 | 206.0 | 252.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 96.0 | 205.0 | 205.0 | 251.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 43.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 94.0 | 201.0 | 201.0 | 247.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 91.0 | 196.0 | 196.0 | 241.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 | 169.0 | 169.0 | 210.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 177.0 | 177.0 | 219.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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