Prediction 3558
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Minas Gerais |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=MG (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 836.0 | 167.0 | 227.0 | 312.0 | 508.0 | 1340.0 | 2579.0 | 2579.0 | 3178.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 930.0 | 185.0 | 250.0 | 345.0 | 562.0 | 1503.0 | 2927.0 | 2927.0 | 3622.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 937.0 | 179.0 | 244.0 | 339.0 | 560.0 | 1530.0 | 3023.0 | 3023.0 | 3758.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 923.0 | 167.0 | 232.0 | 325.0 | 544.0 | 1523.0 | 3053.0 | 3053.0 | 3813.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 1007.0 | 182.0 | 251.0 | 353.0 | 591.0 | 1673.0 | 3391.0 | 3391.0 | 4250.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 1020.0 | 178.0 | 248.0 | 350.0 | 593.0 | 1708.0 | 3506.0 | 3506.0 | 4411.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 1244.0 | 225.0 | 309.0 | 432.0 | 725.0 | 2089.0 | 4316.0 | 4316.0 | 5446.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 1263.0 | 223.0 | 307.0 | 431.0 | 730.0 | 2138.0 | 4467.0 | 4467.0 | 5658.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 1461.0 | 261.0 | 357.0 | 500.0 | 844.0 | 2483.0 | 5229.0 | 5229.0 | 6642.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 1564.0 | 277.0 | 379.0 | 531.0 | 899.0 | 2674.0 | 5683.0 | 5683.0 | 7241.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 1456.0 | 246.0 | 340.0 | 482.0 | 827.0 | 2511.0 | 5399.0 | 5399.0 | 6904.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 1445.0 | 237.0 | 330.0 | 471.0 | 815.0 | 2510.0 | 5451.0 | 5451.0 | 6992.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 2998.0 | 563.0 | 749.0 | 1030.0 | 1722.0 | 5168.0 | 11205.0 | 11205.0 | 14387.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 3835.0 | 727.0 | 962.0 | 1319.0 | 2200.0 | 6632.0 | 14476.0 | 14476.0 | 18632.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 4510.0 | 852.0 | 1127.0 | 1543.0 | 2579.0 | 7834.0 | 17226.0 | 17226.0 | 22228.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 4948.0 | 925.0 | 1225.0 | 1680.0 | 2816.0 | 8638.0 | 19140.0 | 19140.0 | 24761.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 5727.0 | 1064.0 | 1408.0 | 1933.0 | 3248.0 | 10041.0 | 22407.0 | 22407.0 | 29057.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 6318.0 | 1163.0 | 1540.0 | 2117.0 | 3568.0 | 11129.0 | 25013.0 | 25013.0 | 32514.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 7055.0 | 1287.0 | 1706.0 | 2348.0 | 3969.0 | 12484.0 | 28251.0 | 28251.0 | 36808.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 7554.0 | 1363.0 | 1809.0 | 2494.0 | 4231.0 | 13427.0 | 30591.0 | 30591.0 | 39946.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 8760.0 | 1570.0 | 2084.0 | 2876.0 | 4889.0 | 15633.0 | 35842.0 | 35842.0 | 46901.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 10031.0 | 1785.0 | 2370.0 | 3273.0 | 5579.0 | 17973.0 | 41461.0 | 41461.0 | 54365.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 11167.0 | 1969.0 | 2617.0 | 3620.0 | 6188.0 | 20089.0 | 46621.0 | 46621.0 | 61255.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 11572.0 | 2017.0 | 2686.0 | 3723.0 | 6386.0 | 20903.0 | 48803.0 | 48803.0 | 64248.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 11795.0 | 2032.0 | 2711.0 | 3766.0 | 6483.0 | 21394.0 | 50244.0 | 50244.0 | 66271.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 12944.0 | 2211.0 | 2952.0 | 4107.0 | 7090.0 | 23563.0 | 55641.0 | 55641.0 | 73523.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 13587.0 | 2298.0 | 3073.0 | 4282.0 | 7416.0 | 24824.0 | 58938.0 | 58938.0 | 78017.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 13012.0 | 2173.0 | 2912.0 | 4069.0 | 7074.0 | 23866.0 | 56970.0 | 56970.0 | 75545.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 12031.0 | 1981.0 | 2663.0 | 3731.0 | 6514.0 | 22153.0 | 53167.0 | 53167.0 | 70621.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 10949.0 | 1776.0 | 2395.0 | 3366.0 | 5903.0 | 20238.0 | 48826.0 | 48826.0 | 64963.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 9492.0 | 1513.0 | 2049.0 | 2890.0 | 5094.0 | 17615.0 | 42721.0 | 42721.0 | 56934.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 7619.0 | 1186.0 | 1616.0 | 2292.0 | 4066.0 | 14202.0 | 34633.0 | 34633.0 | 46231.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 5628.0 | 846.0 | 1163.0 | 1664.0 | 2982.0 | 10547.0 | 25871.0 | 25871.0 | 34594.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 4450.0 | 645.0 | 896.0 | 1293.0 | 2340.0 | 8382.0 | 20680.0 | 20680.0 | 27699.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 3570.0 | 496.0 | 698.0 | 1018.0 | 1863.0 | 6762.0 | 16782.0 | 16782.0 | 22515.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 2780.0 | 364.0 | 522.0 | 772.0 | 1436.0 | 5300.0 | 13240.0 | 13240.0 | 17794.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 2078.0 | 248.0 | 367.0 | 556.0 | 1058.0 | 3995.0 | 10056.0 | 10056.0 | 13540.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 1609.0 | 170.0 | 263.0 | 411.0 | 805.0 | 3125.0 | 7943.0 | 7943.0 | 10723.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 1277.0 | 115.0 | 190.0 | 309.0 | 627.0 | 2510.0 | 6449.0 | 6449.0 | 8728.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 1030.0 | 74.0 | 135.0 | 233.0 | 494.0 | 2050.0 | 5325.0 | 5325.0 | 7226.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 829.0 | 42.0 | 92.0 | 172.0 | 387.0 | 1675.0 | 4402.0 | 4402.0 | 5991.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 706.0 | 22.0 | 65.0 | 134.0 | 320.0 | 1444.0 | 3836.0 | 3836.0 | 5235.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 625.0 | 8.0 | 47.0 | 109.0 | 277.0 | 1294.0 | 3471.0 | 3471.0 | 4748.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 570.0 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 92.0 | 247.0 | 1193.0 | 3229.0 | 3229.0 | 4426.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 540.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 82.0 | 230.0 | 1139.0 | 3105.0 | 3105.0 | 4264.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 506.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 72.0 | 212.0 | 1077.0 | 2959.0 | 2959.0 | 4071.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 458.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 57.0 | 186.0 | 986.0 | 2736.0 | 2736.0 | 3773.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 474.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 61.0 | 194.0 | 1021.0 | 2840.0 | 2840.0 | 3921.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 515.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 71.0 | 214.0 | 1105.0 | 3073.0 | 3073.0 | 4245.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 491.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 64.0 | 201.0 | 1062.0 | 2972.0 | 2972.0 | 4112.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 484.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 61.0 | 196.0 | 1050.0 | 2952.0 | 2952.0 | 4090.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 487.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 61.0 | 197.0 | 1060.0 | 2989.0 | 2989.0 | 4146.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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