Prediction 3559
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Mato Grosso do Sul |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=MS (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 132.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 53.0 | 252.0 | 541.0 | 541.0 | 679.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 145.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 60.0 | 276.0 | 594.0 | 594.0 | 748.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 152.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 63.0 | 289.0 | 629.0 | 629.0 | 794.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 163.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 69.0 | 310.0 | 677.0 | 677.0 | 857.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 199.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 90.0 | 370.0 | 802.0 | 802.0 | 1015.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 224.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 35.0 | 104.0 | 413.0 | 895.0 | 895.0 | 1134.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 278.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 55.0 | 137.0 | 503.0 | 1082.0 | 1082.0 | 1370.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 258.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 45.0 | 123.0 | 475.0 | 1039.0 | 1039.0 | 1322.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 280.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 52.0 | 135.0 | 515.0 | 1128.0 | 1128.0 | 1438.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 267.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 45.0 | 125.0 | 497.0 | 1105.0 | 1105.0 | 1413.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 203.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 85.0 | 396.0 | 909.0 | 909.0 | 1171.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 205.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 85.0 | 402.0 | 928.0 | 928.0 | 1198.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 391.0 | 13.0 | 43.0 | 88.0 | 196.0 | 713.0 | 1579.0 | 1579.0 | 2025.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 495.0 | 35.0 | 72.0 | 126.0 | 257.0 | 890.0 | 1961.0 | 1961.0 | 2514.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 580.0 | 52.0 | 94.0 | 156.0 | 306.0 | 1037.0 | 2284.0 | 2284.0 | 2931.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 687.0 | 74.0 | 122.0 | 194.0 | 368.0 | 1223.0 | 2692.0 | 2692.0 | 3459.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 798.0 | 96.0 | 150.0 | 232.0 | 432.0 | 1415.0 | 3119.0 | 3119.0 | 4011.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 881.0 | 112.0 | 171.0 | 260.0 | 479.0 | 1564.0 | 3456.0 | 3456.0 | 4451.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 922.0 | 118.0 | 179.0 | 272.0 | 500.0 | 1640.0 | 3641.0 | 3641.0 | 4697.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 949.0 | 121.0 | 184.0 | 279.0 | 514.0 | 1694.0 | 3778.0 | 3778.0 | 4881.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 1089.0 | 148.0 | 219.0 | 326.0 | 593.0 | 1940.0 | 4335.0 | 4335.0 | 5607.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 1160.0 | 160.0 | 235.0 | 349.0 | 632.0 | 2070.0 | 4641.0 | 4641.0 | 6011.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 1195.0 | 164.0 | 241.0 | 358.0 | 650.0 | 2138.0 | 4814.0 | 4814.0 | 6244.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 1251.0 | 173.0 | 253.0 | 375.0 | 679.0 | 2241.0 | 5066.0 | 5066.0 | 6579.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 1264.0 | 173.0 | 254.0 | 377.0 | 684.0 | 2271.0 | 5156.0 | 5156.0 | 6707.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1245.0 | 167.0 | 246.0 | 367.0 | 671.0 | 2245.0 | 5122.0 | 5122.0 | 6671.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 1229.0 | 162.0 | 240.0 | 359.0 | 659.0 | 2224.0 | 5096.0 | 5096.0 | 6647.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 1161.0 | 146.0 | 220.0 | 333.0 | 619.0 | 2111.0 | 4863.0 | 4863.0 | 6354.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 1031.0 | 119.0 | 185.0 | 287.0 | 543.0 | 1888.0 | 4381.0 | 4381.0 | 5733.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 1022.0 | 116.0 | 181.0 | 282.0 | 536.0 | 1879.0 | 4376.0 | 4376.0 | 5735.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 863.0 | 84.0 | 140.0 | 226.0 | 445.0 | 1602.0 | 3764.0 | 3764.0 | 4942.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 652.0 | 43.0 | 86.0 | 154.0 | 325.0 | 1233.0 | 2937.0 | 2937.0 | 3867.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 504.0 | 14.0 | 49.0 | 103.0 | 240.0 | 973.0 | 2353.0 | 2353.0 | 3108.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 454.0 | 4.0 | 36.0 | 85.0 | 211.0 | 886.0 | 2160.0 | 2160.0 | 2859.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 364.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 54.0 | 160.0 | 727.0 | 1802.0 | 1802.0 | 2392.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 305.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 126.0 | 623.0 | 1568.0 | 1568.0 | 2088.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 256.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 99.0 | 537.0 | 1373.0 | 1373.0 | 1833.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 227.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 82.0 | 487.0 | 1264.0 | 1264.0 | 1694.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 193.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 63.0 | 429.0 | 1137.0 | 1137.0 | 1529.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 170.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 49.0 | 389.0 | 1048.0 | 1048.0 | 1414.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 154.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.0 | 361.0 | 988.0 | 988.0 | 1337.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 139.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 336.0 | 935.0 | 935.0 | 1269.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 135.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 329.0 | 923.0 | 923.0 | 1256.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 113.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 290.0 | 833.0 | 833.0 | 1139.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 112.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 290.0 | 838.0 | 838.0 | 1147.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 101.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 272.0 | 796.0 | 796.0 | 1093.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 112.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 291.0 | 848.0 | 848.0 | 1163.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 94.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 260.0 | 774.0 | 774.0 | 1066.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 111.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 293.0 | 858.0 | 858.0 | 1179.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 106.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 284.0 | 840.0 | 840.0 | 1157.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 112.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 295.0 | 870.0 | 870.0 | 1199.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 120.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 312.0 | 914.0 | 914.0 | 1258.0 |
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Interval Bounds
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