Prediction 356
| Modelo | Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components |
|---|---|
| Autor | Marcio Maciel Bastos |
Descrição:
This upload represents the epidemic prediction for unseen data from the period of 2024-06-16 to 2025-10-05 in the state AM. The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.
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| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-16 | 482.70 | - | 462.83 | - | - | - | - | 503.19 | - |
| 2024-06-23 | 397.34 | - | 379.51 | - | - | - | - | 415.77 | - |
| 2024-06-30 | 437.12 | - | 418.32 | - | - | - | - | 456.53 | - |
| 2024-07-07 | 406.34 | - | 388.30 | - | - | - | - | 424.99 | - |
| 2024-07-14 | 381.93 | - | 364.50 | - | - | - | - | 399.97 | - |
| 2024-07-21 | 342.96 | - | 326.55 | - | - | - | - | 359.98 | - |
| 2024-07-28 | 305.02 | - | 289.63 | - | - | - | - | 321.00 | - |
| 2024-08-04 | 330.08 | - | 314.01 | - | - | - | - | 346.76 | - |
| 2024-08-11 | 304.92 | - | 289.53 | - | - | - | - | 320.90 | - |
| 2024-08-18 | 239.64 | - | 226.16 | - | - | - | - | 253.70 | - |
| 2024-08-25 | 267.24 | - | 252.94 | - | - | - | - | 282.13 | - |
| 2024-09-01 | 245.48 | - | 231.83 | - | - | - | - | 259.71 | - |
| 2024-09-08 | 257.06 | - | 243.06 | - | - | - | - | 271.64 | - |
| 2024-09-15 | 295.33 | - | 280.22 | - | - | - | - | 311.04 | - |
| 2024-09-22 | 297.66 | - | 282.48 | - | - | - | - | 313.43 | - |
| 2024-09-29 | 304.76 | - | 289.39 | - | - | - | - | 320.74 | - |
| 2024-10-06 | 304.52 | - | 289.15 | - | - | - | - | 320.48 | - |
| 2024-10-13 | 320.24 | - | 304.44 | - | - | - | - | 336.65 | - |
| 2024-10-20 | 281.47 | - | 266.74 | - | - | - | - | 296.78 | - |
| 2024-10-27 | 312.55 | - | 296.95 | - | - | - | - | 328.74 | - |
| 2024-11-03 | 374.44 | - | 357.21 | - | - | - | - | 392.29 | - |
| 2024-11-10 | 429.89 | - | 411.28 | - | - | - | - | 449.13 | - |
| 2024-11-17 | 501.54 | - | 481.24 | - | - | - | - | 522.47 | - |
| 2024-11-24 | 552.43 | - | 530.99 | - | - | - | - | 574.51 | - |
| 2024-12-01 | 504.18 | - | 483.81 | - | - | - | - | 525.17 | - |
| 2024-12-08 | 559.17 | - | 537.58 | - | - | - | - | 581.39 | - |
| 2024-12-15 | 588.61 | - | 566.38 | - | - | - | - | 611.47 | - |
| 2024-12-22 | 617.33 | - | 595.35 | - | - | - | - | 639.89 | - |
| 2024-12-29 | 499.14 | - | 98.59 | - | - | - | - | 1550.37 | - |
| 2025-01-05 | 529.04 | - | 104.50 | - | - | - | - | 1643.23 | - |
| 2025-01-12 | 585.92 | - | 115.73 | - | - | - | - | 1819.90 | - |
| 2025-01-19 | 762.78 | - | 150.68 | - | - | - | - | 2369.17 | - |
| 2025-01-26 | 815.61 | - | 161.11 | - | - | - | - | 2533.23 | - |
| 2025-02-02 | 849.93 | - | 167.90 | - | - | - | - | 2639.84 | - |
| 2025-02-09 | 949.07 | - | 187.48 | - | - | - | - | 2947.74 | - |
| 2025-02-16 | 553.99 | - | 109.43 | - | - | - | - | 1720.74 | - |
| 2025-02-23 | 978.58 | - | 193.31 | - | - | - | - | 3039.38 | - |
| 2025-03-02 | 884.47 | - | 174.72 | - | - | - | - | 2747.11 | - |
| 2025-03-09 | 790.17 | - | 156.09 | - | - | - | - | 2454.24 | - |
| 2025-03-16 | 643.63 | - | 127.14 | - | - | - | - | 1999.12 | - |
| 2025-03-23 | 382.31 | - | 75.51 | - | - | - | - | 1187.52 | - |
| 2025-03-30 | 554.92 | - | 109.61 | - | - | - | - | 1723.61 | - |
| 2025-04-06 | 461.97 | - | 91.24 | - | - | - | - | 1434.94 | - |
| 2025-04-13 | 351.88 | - | 69.49 | - | - | - | - | 1093.02 | - |
| 2025-04-20 | 338.60 | - | 66.87 | - | - | - | - | 1051.79 | - |
| 2025-04-27 | 323.90 | - | 63.97 | - | - | - | - | 1006.12 | - |
| 2025-05-04 | 300.25 | - | 59.29 | - | - | - | - | 932.68 | - |
| 2025-05-11 | 270.10 | - | 53.34 | - | - | - | - | 839.05 | - |
| 2025-05-18 | 217.19 | - | 42.88 | - | - | - | - | 674.71 | - |
| 2025-05-25 | 234.91 | - | 46.39 | - | - | - | - | 729.77 | - |
| 2025-06-01 | 220.61 | - | 43.56 | - | - | - | - | 685.35 | - |
| 2025-06-08 | 210.66 | - | 41.59 | - | - | - | - | 654.45 | - |
| 2025-06-15 | 216.31 | - | 42.70 | - | - | - | - | 672.03 | - |
| 2025-06-22 | 178.06 | - | 35.15 | - | - | - | - | 553.23 | - |
| 2025-06-29 | 195.88 | - | 38.67 | - | - | - | - | 608.59 | - |
| 2025-07-06 | 182.09 | - | 35.94 | - | - | - | - | 565.76 | - |
| 2025-07-13 | 171.15 | - | 33.78 | - | - | - | - | 531.79 | - |
| 2025-07-20 | 153.69 | - | 30.33 | - | - | - | - | 477.55 | - |
| 2025-07-27 | 136.69 | - | 26.97 | - | - | - | - | 424.74 | - |
| 2025-08-03 | 147.92 | - | 29.19 | - | - | - | - | 459.62 | - |
| 2025-08-10 | 136.64 | - | 26.96 | - | - | - | - | 424.60 | - |
| 2025-08-17 | 107.39 | - | 21.18 | - | - | - | - | 333.75 | - |
| 2025-08-24 | 119.76 | - | 23.63 | - | - | - | - | 372.16 | - |
| 2025-08-31 | 110.01 | - | 21.70 | - | - | - | - | 341.88 | - |
| 2025-09-07 | 115.19 | - | 22.73 | - | - | - | - | 357.99 | - |
| 2025-09-14 | 132.34 | - | 26.12 | - | - | - | - | 411.26 | - |
| 2025-09-21 | 133.39 | - | 26.32 | - | - | - | - | 414.49 | - |
| 2025-09-28 | 136.57 | - | 26.95 | - | - | - | - | 424.39 | - |
| 2025-10-05 | 136.46 | - | 26.93 | - | - | - | - | 424.05 | - |
| 2024-06-16 | 482.74 | - | 462.87 | - | - | - | - | 503.24 | - |
| 2024-06-23 | 397.38 | - | 379.55 | - | - | - | - | 415.81 | - |
| 2024-06-30 | 437.16 | - | 418.36 | - | - | - | - | 456.57 | - |
| 2024-07-07 | 406.38 | - | 388.34 | - | - | - | - | 425.03 | - |
| 2024-07-14 | 381.97 | - | 364.54 | - | - | - | - | 400.01 | - |
| 2024-07-21 | 343.00 | - | 326.58 | - | - | - | - | 360.02 | - |
| 2024-07-28 | 305.05 | - | 289.65 | - | - | - | - | 321.03 | - |
| 2024-08-04 | 330.11 | - | 314.04 | - | - | - | - | 346.79 | - |
| 2024-08-11 | 304.95 | - | 289.56 | - | - | - | - | 320.93 | - |
| 2024-08-18 | 239.66 | - | 226.18 | - | - | - | - | 253.72 | - |
| 2024-08-25 | 267.27 | - | 252.97 | - | - | - | - | 282.16 | - |
| 2024-09-01 | 245.51 | - | 231.86 | - | - | - | - | 259.74 | - |
| 2024-09-08 | 257.09 | - | 243.09 | - | - | - | - | 271.67 | - |
| 2024-09-15 | 295.36 | - | 280.24 | - | - | - | - | 311.07 | - |
| 2024-09-22 | 297.69 | - | 282.51 | - | - | - | - | 313.46 | - |
| 2024-09-29 | 304.79 | - | 289.42 | - | - | - | - | 320.77 | - |
| 2024-10-06 | 304.55 | - | 289.18 | - | - | - | - | 320.52 | - |
| 2024-10-13 | 320.27 | - | 304.47 | - | - | - | - | 336.68 | - |
| 2024-10-20 | 281.50 | - | 266.77 | - | - | - | - | 296.81 | - |
| 2024-10-27 | 312.58 | - | 296.98 | - | - | - | - | 328.77 | - |
| 2024-11-03 | 374.48 | - | 357.24 | - | - | - | - | 392.33 | - |
| 2024-11-10 | 429.93 | - | 411.31 | - | - | - | - | 449.17 | - |
| 2024-11-17 | 501.58 | - | 481.28 | - | - | - | - | 522.51 | - |
| 2024-11-24 | 552.47 | - | 531.03 | - | - | - | - | 574.55 | - |
| 2024-12-01 | 504.22 | - | 483.85 | - | - | - | - | 525.21 | - |
| 2024-12-08 | 559.21 | - | 537.62 | - | - | - | - | 581.44 | - |
| 2024-12-15 | 588.66 | - | 566.43 | - | - | - | - | 611.52 | - |
| 2024-12-22 | 617.38 | - | 595.40 | - | - | - | - | 639.94 | - |
| 2024-12-29 | 1672.60 | - | 190.03 | - | - | - | - | 6527.23 | - |
| 2025-01-05 | 1772.84 | - | 201.42 | - | - | - | - | 6918.48 | - |
| 2025-01-12 | 1963.46 | - | 223.08 | - | - | - | - | 7662.34 | - |
| 2025-01-19 | 2556.13 | - | 290.43 | - | - | - | - | 9975.04 | - |
| 2025-01-26 | 2733.15 | - | 310.55 | - | - | - | - | 10665.81 | - |
| 2025-02-02 | 2848.18 | - | 323.62 | - | - | - | - | 11114.67 | - |
| 2025-02-09 | 3180.40 | - | 361.37 | - | - | - | - | 12411.06 | - |
| 2025-02-16 | 1856.47 | - | 210.92 | - | - | - | - | 7244.82 | - |
| 2025-02-23 | 3279.28 | - | 372.61 | - | - | - | - | 12796.92 | - |
| 2025-03-02 | 2963.92 | - | 336.77 | - | - | - | - | 11566.33 | - |
| 2025-03-09 | 2647.92 | - | 300.86 | - | - | - | - | 10333.22 | - |
| 2025-03-16 | 2156.84 | - | 245.06 | - | - | - | - | 8416.93 | - |
| 2025-03-23 | 1281.13 | - | 145.54 | - | - | - | - | 4999.73 | - |
| 2025-03-30 | 1859.57 | - | 211.28 | - | - | - | - | 7256.94 | - |
| 2025-04-06 | 1548.08 | - | 175.88 | - | - | - | - | 6041.44 | - |
| 2025-04-13 | 1179.16 | - | 133.95 | - | - | - | - | 4601.85 | - |
| 2025-04-20 | 1134.67 | - | 128.90 | - | - | - | - | 4428.24 | - |
| 2025-04-27 | 1085.39 | - | 123.30 | - | - | - | - | 4235.95 | - |
| 2025-05-04 | 1006.15 | - | 114.29 | - | - | - | - | 3926.71 | - |
| 2025-05-11 | 905.13 | - | 102.81 | - | - | - | - | 3532.51 | - |
| 2025-05-18 | 727.80 | - | 82.66 | - | - | - | - | 2840.55 | - |
| 2025-05-25 | 787.21 | - | 89.41 | - | - | - | - | 3072.36 | - |
| 2025-06-01 | 739.29 | - | 83.97 | - | - | - | - | 2885.36 | - |
| 2025-06-08 | 705.94 | - | 80.18 | - | - | - | - | 2755.26 | - |
| 2025-06-15 | 724.88 | - | 82.32 | - | - | - | - | 2829.27 | - |
| 2025-06-22 | 596.69 | - | 67.75 | - | - | - | - | 2329.07 | - |
| 2025-06-29 | 656.42 | - | 74.54 | - | - | - | - | 2562.15 | - |
| 2025-07-06 | 610.21 | - | 69.29 | - | - | - | - | 2381.81 | - |
| 2025-07-13 | 573.56 | - | 65.12 | - | - | - | - | 2238.78 | - |
| 2025-07-20 | 515.04 | - | 58.47 | - | - | - | - | 2010.42 | - |
| 2025-07-27 | 458.05 | - | 52.00 | - | - | - | - | 1788.04 | - |
| 2025-08-03 | 495.69 | - | 56.28 | - | - | - | - | 1934.92 | - |
| 2025-08-10 | 457.90 | - | 51.98 | - | - | - | - | 1787.46 | - |
| 2025-08-17 | 359.88 | - | 40.84 | - | - | - | - | 1404.95 | - |
| 2025-08-24 | 401.33 | - | 45.55 | - | - | - | - | 1566.70 | - |
| 2025-08-31 | 368.65 | - | 41.84 | - | - | - | - | 1439.19 | - |
| 2025-09-07 | 386.04 | - | 43.82 | - | - | - | - | 1507.04 | - |
| 2025-09-14 | 443.50 | - | 50.35 | - | - | - | - | 1731.28 | - |
| 2025-09-21 | 447.00 | - | 50.74 | - | - | - | - | 1744.92 | - |
| 2025-09-28 | 457.67 | - | 51.96 | - | - | - | - | 1786.58 | - |
| 2025-10-05 | 457.30 | - | 51.91 | - | - | - | - | 1785.14 | - |
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