Prediction 3560
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Mato Grosso |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=MT (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 131.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 32.0 | 72.0 | 210.0 | 373.0 | 373.0 | 443.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 145.0 | 2.0 | 18.0 | 39.0 | 82.0 | 231.0 | 410.0 | 410.0 | 487.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 150.0 | 3.0 | 18.0 | 40.0 | 84.0 | 239.0 | 427.0 | 427.0 | 508.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 165.0 | 7.0 | 24.0 | 47.0 | 94.0 | 262.0 | 467.0 | 467.0 | 556.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 206.0 | 22.0 | 41.0 | 68.0 | 123.0 | 320.0 | 561.0 | 561.0 | 667.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 224.0 | 28.0 | 48.0 | 76.0 | 135.0 | 347.0 | 610.0 | 610.0 | 725.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 265.0 | 42.0 | 65.0 | 97.0 | 164.0 | 406.0 | 708.0 | 708.0 | 840.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 298.0 | 53.0 | 78.0 | 113.0 | 187.0 | 454.0 | 790.0 | 790.0 | 938.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 339.0 | 67.0 | 95.0 | 133.0 | 215.0 | 513.0 | 891.0 | 891.0 | 1058.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 336.0 | 64.0 | 92.0 | 130.0 | 211.0 | 511.0 | 892.0 | 892.0 | 1062.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 273.0 | 38.0 | 62.0 | 95.0 | 165.0 | 424.0 | 755.0 | 755.0 | 903.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 215.0 | 16.0 | 36.0 | 64.0 | 123.0 | 344.0 | 628.0 | 628.0 | 755.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 535.0 | 131.0 | 172.0 | 228.0 | 349.0 | 798.0 | 1380.0 | 1380.0 | 1641.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 607.0 | 156.0 | 201.0 | 263.0 | 398.0 | 903.0 | 1561.0 | 1561.0 | 1856.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 661.0 | 173.0 | 222.0 | 289.0 | 435.0 | 983.0 | 1700.0 | 1700.0 | 2022.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 712.0 | 189.0 | 241.0 | 313.0 | 469.0 | 1059.0 | 1833.0 | 1833.0 | 2182.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 784.0 | 212.0 | 269.0 | 347.0 | 518.0 | 1165.0 | 2017.0 | 2017.0 | 2403.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 824.0 | 224.0 | 283.0 | 365.0 | 544.0 | 1225.0 | 2126.0 | 2126.0 | 2535.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 845.0 | 229.0 | 290.0 | 374.0 | 557.0 | 1258.0 | 2190.0 | 2190.0 | 2613.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 769.0 | 201.0 | 257.0 | 334.0 | 503.0 | 1152.0 | 2017.0 | 2017.0 | 2410.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 822.0 | 217.0 | 276.0 | 359.0 | 538.0 | 1231.0 | 2157.0 | 2157.0 | 2580.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 813.0 | 212.0 | 271.0 | 353.0 | 531.0 | 1221.0 | 2147.0 | 2147.0 | 2570.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 828.0 | 216.0 | 275.0 | 359.0 | 540.0 | 1245.0 | 2195.0 | 2195.0 | 2629.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 838.0 | 217.0 | 278.0 | 362.0 | 546.0 | 1261.0 | 2228.0 | 2228.0 | 2671.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 792.0 | 200.0 | 258.0 | 338.0 | 513.0 | 1198.0 | 2125.0 | 2125.0 | 2550.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 810.0 | 205.0 | 264.0 | 345.0 | 525.0 | 1226.0 | 2179.0 | 2179.0 | 2617.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 830.0 | 210.0 | 270.0 | 353.0 | 537.0 | 1256.0 | 2236.0 | 2236.0 | 2687.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 782.0 | 193.0 | 250.0 | 329.0 | 504.0 | 1189.0 | 2125.0 | 2125.0 | 2556.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 732.0 | 175.0 | 229.0 | 304.0 | 469.0 | 1118.0 | 2006.0 | 2006.0 | 2416.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 724.0 | 171.0 | 224.0 | 299.0 | 462.0 | 1107.0 | 1992.0 | 1992.0 | 2401.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 670.0 | 153.0 | 202.0 | 271.0 | 424.0 | 1029.0 | 1860.0 | 1860.0 | 2245.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 612.0 | 133.0 | 179.0 | 243.0 | 385.0 | 947.0 | 1720.0 | 1720.0 | 2078.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 534.0 | 107.0 | 147.0 | 204.0 | 331.0 | 832.0 | 1524.0 | 1524.0 | 1844.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 467.0 | 84.0 | 121.0 | 172.0 | 285.0 | 734.0 | 1356.0 | 1356.0 | 1644.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 402.0 | 63.0 | 95.0 | 140.0 | 241.0 | 640.0 | 1194.0 | 1194.0 | 1451.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 346.0 | 44.0 | 73.0 | 113.0 | 202.0 | 558.0 | 1052.0 | 1052.0 | 1282.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 311.0 | 32.0 | 59.0 | 96.0 | 178.0 | 507.0 | 964.0 | 964.0 | 1177.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 268.0 | 18.0 | 41.0 | 75.0 | 149.0 | 445.0 | 859.0 | 859.0 | 1052.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 234.0 | 6.0 | 28.0 | 58.0 | 125.0 | 396.0 | 775.0 | 775.0 | 952.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 194.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 38.0 | 98.0 | 337.0 | 672.0 | 672.0 | 829.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 172.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 28.0 | 83.0 | 305.0 | 618.0 | 618.0 | 765.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 148.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 66.0 | 269.0 | 556.0 | 556.0 | 691.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 137.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 58.0 | 254.0 | 530.0 | 530.0 | 660.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 124.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 50.0 | 236.0 | 500.0 | 500.0 | 624.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 127.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 52.0 | 241.0 | 510.0 | 510.0 | 637.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 113.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.0 | 220.0 | 474.0 | 474.0 | 594.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 194.0 | 429.0 | 429.0 | 540.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.0 | 200.0 | 441.0 | 441.0 | 554.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 103.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 206.0 | 452.0 | 452.0 | 568.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 99.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 201.0 | 444.0 | 444.0 | 559.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 99.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 201.0 | 445.0 | 445.0 | 561.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 101.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.0 | 204.0 | 452.0 | 452.0 | 569.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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