Prediction 3561
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Pará |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=PA (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 29.0 | 108.0 | 193.0 | 193.0 | 227.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 99.0 | 181.0 | 181.0 | 214.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 96.0 | 178.0 | 178.0 | 211.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 29.0 | 111.0 | 201.0 | 201.0 | 237.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 37.0 | 125.0 | 221.0 | 221.0 | 261.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 88.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 17.0 | 46.0 | 141.0 | 246.0 | 246.0 | 289.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 101.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 24.0 | 56.0 | 159.0 | 272.0 | 272.0 | 319.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 109.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 29.0 | 62.0 | 170.0 | 289.0 | 289.0 | 339.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 122.0 | 5.0 | 19.0 | 36.0 | 72.0 | 187.0 | 315.0 | 315.0 | 367.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 110.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 29.0 | 62.0 | 172.0 | 294.0 | 294.0 | 344.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 76.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 36.0 | 129.0 | 232.0 | 232.0 | 275.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 29.0 | 117.0 | 215.0 | 215.0 | 256.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 148.0 | 16.0 | 31.0 | 51.0 | 91.0 | 222.0 | 370.0 | 370.0 | 431.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 182.0 | 31.0 | 49.0 | 71.0 | 117.0 | 267.0 | 436.0 | 436.0 | 506.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 223.0 | 50.0 | 70.0 | 95.0 | 148.0 | 320.0 | 515.0 | 515.0 | 595.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 246.0 | 60.0 | 81.0 | 109.0 | 165.0 | 351.0 | 560.0 | 560.0 | 647.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 279.0 | 75.0 | 98.0 | 129.0 | 191.0 | 395.0 | 625.0 | 625.0 | 721.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 259.0 | 66.0 | 88.0 | 116.0 | 175.0 | 369.0 | 588.0 | 588.0 | 680.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 283.0 | 76.0 | 100.0 | 131.0 | 193.0 | 401.0 | 636.0 | 636.0 | 733.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 247.0 | 59.0 | 81.0 | 109.0 | 166.0 | 354.0 | 567.0 | 567.0 | 656.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 269.0 | 69.0 | 92.0 | 122.0 | 182.0 | 383.0 | 611.0 | 611.0 | 706.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 284.0 | 76.0 | 99.0 | 130.0 | 194.0 | 403.0 | 641.0 | 641.0 | 740.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 295.0 | 80.0 | 105.0 | 137.0 | 202.0 | 417.0 | 662.0 | 662.0 | 764.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 247.0 | 58.0 | 79.0 | 107.0 | 165.0 | 354.0 | 570.0 | 570.0 | 660.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 211.0 | 42.0 | 61.0 | 86.0 | 137.0 | 308.0 | 502.0 | 502.0 | 583.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 217.0 | 44.0 | 64.0 | 90.0 | 142.0 | 316.0 | 514.0 | 514.0 | 597.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 206.0 | 39.0 | 58.0 | 83.0 | 134.0 | 302.0 | 494.0 | 494.0 | 574.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 181.0 | 28.0 | 45.0 | 68.0 | 114.0 | 269.0 | 445.0 | 445.0 | 519.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 159.0 | 18.0 | 33.0 | 55.0 | 97.0 | 240.0 | 403.0 | 403.0 | 471.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 176.0 | 25.0 | 42.0 | 65.0 | 110.0 | 263.0 | 436.0 | 436.0 | 509.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 164.0 | 20.0 | 36.0 | 57.0 | 101.0 | 246.0 | 413.0 | 413.0 | 482.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 138.0 | 8.0 | 22.0 | 42.0 | 81.0 | 212.0 | 362.0 | 362.0 | 425.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 110.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 25.0 | 60.0 | 176.0 | 308.0 | 308.0 | 364.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 52.0 | 163.0 | 289.0 | 289.0 | 342.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 85.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 41.0 | 143.0 | 260.0 | 260.0 | 310.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 82.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 38.0 | 139.0 | 255.0 | 255.0 | 303.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 70.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 29.0 | 123.0 | 231.0 | 231.0 | 276.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 69.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 122.0 | 230.0 | 230.0 | 275.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 111.0 | 214.0 | 214.0 | 257.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 54.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 102.0 | 200.0 | 200.0 | 241.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 102.0 | 200.0 | 200.0 | 241.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 105.0 | 204.0 | 204.0 | 246.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 109.0 | 210.0 | 210.0 | 253.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 62.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 114.0 | 218.0 | 218.0 | 262.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 111.0 | 215.0 | 215.0 | 258.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 112.0 | 215.0 | 215.0 | 258.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 107.0 | 208.0 | 208.0 | 250.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 51.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 99.0 | 197.0 | 197.0 | 238.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 54.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 103.0 | 202.0 | 202.0 | 243.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 51.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 99.0 | 196.0 | 196.0 | 237.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 102.0 | 201.0 | 201.0 | 243.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 49.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 97.0 | 194.0 | 194.0 | 234.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
