Prediction 3563
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Pernambuco |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=PE (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 131.0 | 287.0 | 287.0 | 358.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 66.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 140.0 | 307.0 | 307.0 | 383.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 73.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 151.0 | 331.0 | 331.0 | 413.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 69.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 148.0 | 329.0 | 329.0 | 413.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 80.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 165.0 | 364.0 | 364.0 | 457.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 160.0 | 360.0 | 360.0 | 453.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 162.0 | 367.0 | 367.0 | 464.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 77.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 166.0 | 378.0 | 378.0 | 478.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 82.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 174.0 | 398.0 | 398.0 | 504.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 89.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 187.0 | 425.0 | 425.0 | 538.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 156.0 | 371.0 | 371.0 | 474.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 117.0 | 303.0 | 303.0 | 392.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 194.0 | 448.0 | 448.0 | 571.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 104.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 216.0 | 493.0 | 493.0 | 628.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 113.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.0 | 232.0 | 527.0 | 527.0 | 671.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 129.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 47.0 | 258.0 | 581.0 | 581.0 | 739.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 165.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 69.0 | 316.0 | 695.0 | 695.0 | 882.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 191.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 85.0 | 359.0 | 782.0 | 782.0 | 990.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 215.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 32.0 | 100.0 | 399.0 | 864.0 | 864.0 | 1094.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 228.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 36.0 | 107.0 | 420.0 | 910.0 | 910.0 | 1153.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 264.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 51.0 | 129.0 | 480.0 | 1032.0 | 1032.0 | 1307.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 324.0 | 9.0 | 35.0 | 74.0 | 166.0 | 578.0 | 1229.0 | 1229.0 | 1553.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 349.0 | 14.0 | 42.0 | 84.0 | 181.0 | 620.0 | 1318.0 | 1318.0 | 1668.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 374.0 | 20.0 | 49.0 | 93.0 | 195.0 | 662.0 | 1408.0 | 1408.0 | 1782.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 370.0 | 17.0 | 47.0 | 90.0 | 191.0 | 657.0 | 1403.0 | 1403.0 | 1778.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 426.0 | 31.0 | 63.0 | 112.0 | 226.0 | 750.0 | 1596.0 | 1596.0 | 2022.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 434.0 | 31.0 | 65.0 | 114.0 | 230.0 | 765.0 | 1632.0 | 1632.0 | 2069.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 474.0 | 40.0 | 76.0 | 129.0 | 254.0 | 833.0 | 1774.0 | 1774.0 | 2250.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 450.0 | 33.0 | 67.0 | 118.0 | 238.0 | 795.0 | 1704.0 | 1704.0 | 2165.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 484.0 | 41.0 | 77.0 | 130.0 | 258.0 | 852.0 | 1826.0 | 1826.0 | 2321.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 495.0 | 43.0 | 79.0 | 134.0 | 264.0 | 874.0 | 1876.0 | 1876.0 | 2386.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 490.0 | 40.0 | 77.0 | 131.0 | 260.0 | 866.0 | 1867.0 | 1867.0 | 2378.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 432.0 | 26.0 | 59.0 | 107.0 | 224.0 | 774.0 | 1684.0 | 1684.0 | 2149.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 405.0 | 19.0 | 50.0 | 96.0 | 207.0 | 731.0 | 1602.0 | 1602.0 | 2048.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 382.0 | 13.0 | 42.0 | 86.0 | 192.0 | 694.0 | 1530.0 | 1530.0 | 1959.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 348.0 | 4.0 | 32.0 | 73.0 | 171.0 | 640.0 | 1423.0 | 1423.0 | 1825.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 290.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 50.0 | 136.0 | 546.0 | 1233.0 | 1233.0 | 1587.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 268.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 41.0 | 122.0 | 511.0 | 1165.0 | 1165.0 | 1503.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 254.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 35.0 | 113.0 | 489.0 | 1125.0 | 1125.0 | 1453.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 245.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 107.0 | 475.0 | 1101.0 | 1101.0 | 1425.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 222.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 93.0 | 439.0 | 1028.0 | 1028.0 | 1334.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 189.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 73.0 | 385.0 | 919.0 | 919.0 | 1196.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 190.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 73.0 | 386.0 | 925.0 | 925.0 | 1206.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 190.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 72.0 | 387.0 | 930.0 | 930.0 | 1213.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 167.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 58.0 | 350.0 | 854.0 | 854.0 | 1118.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 160.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 54.0 | 339.0 | 834.0 | 834.0 | 1093.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 149.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 47.0 | 321.0 | 797.0 | 797.0 | 1047.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 144.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.0 | 314.0 | 784.0 | 784.0 | 1032.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 136.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 | 302.0 | 760.0 | 760.0 | 1002.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 125.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 283.0 | 724.0 | 724.0 | 956.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 132.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 296.0 | 753.0 | 753.0 | 994.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 134.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.0 | 299.0 | 760.0 | 760.0 | 1004.0 |
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