Prediction 3564
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Piauí |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=PI (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 37.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 77.0 | 156.0 | 156.0 | 188.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 76.0 | 157.0 | 157.0 | 190.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 75.0 | 156.0 | 156.0 | 190.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 37.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 79.0 | 164.0 | 164.0 | 199.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 84.0 | 171.0 | 171.0 | 208.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 42.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 87.0 | 178.0 | 178.0 | 215.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 42.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 87.0 | 179.0 | 179.0 | 218.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 92.0 | 188.0 | 188.0 | 228.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 92.0 | 188.0 | 188.0 | 229.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 93.0 | 190.0 | 190.0 | 231.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 38.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 83.0 | 176.0 | 176.0 | 216.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 79.0 | 170.0 | 170.0 | 209.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 120.0 | 234.0 | 234.0 | 282.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 77.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 32.0 | 137.0 | 259.0 | 259.0 | 311.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 85.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 38.0 | 148.0 | 277.0 | 277.0 | 332.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 95.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 46.0 | 161.0 | 298.0 | 298.0 | 357.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 117.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 24.0 | 61.0 | 191.0 | 344.0 | 344.0 | 409.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 127.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 30.0 | 69.0 | 205.0 | 367.0 | 367.0 | 436.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 142.0 | 2.0 | 17.0 | 38.0 | 80.0 | 225.0 | 398.0 | 398.0 | 471.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 148.0 | 5.0 | 20.0 | 41.0 | 85.0 | 234.0 | 412.0 | 412.0 | 489.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 173.0 | 15.0 | 32.0 | 55.0 | 102.0 | 267.0 | 464.0 | 464.0 | 548.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 209.0 | 30.0 | 49.0 | 75.0 | 130.0 | 317.0 | 541.0 | 541.0 | 637.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 254.0 | 48.0 | 71.0 | 101.0 | 163.0 | 378.0 | 635.0 | 635.0 | 745.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 283.0 | 60.0 | 84.0 | 117.0 | 184.0 | 417.0 | 696.0 | 696.0 | 816.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 296.0 | 65.0 | 90.0 | 124.0 | 193.0 | 435.0 | 725.0 | 725.0 | 850.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 332.0 | 80.0 | 107.0 | 144.0 | 219.0 | 483.0 | 800.0 | 800.0 | 936.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 362.0 | 92.0 | 121.0 | 160.0 | 242.0 | 525.0 | 865.0 | 865.0 | 1011.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 394.0 | 105.0 | 136.0 | 178.0 | 265.0 | 568.0 | 932.0 | 932.0 | 1089.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 400.0 | 107.0 | 139.0 | 181.0 | 269.0 | 577.0 | 946.0 | 946.0 | 1106.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 402.0 | 108.0 | 140.0 | 182.0 | 271.0 | 580.0 | 953.0 | 953.0 | 1113.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 417.0 | 114.0 | 147.0 | 190.0 | 282.0 | 600.0 | 984.0 | 984.0 | 1149.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 407.0 | 110.0 | 142.0 | 185.0 | 274.0 | 588.0 | 965.0 | 965.0 | 1127.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 341.0 | 82.0 | 110.0 | 147.0 | 225.0 | 497.0 | 825.0 | 825.0 | 967.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 331.0 | 78.0 | 105.0 | 142.0 | 218.0 | 485.0 | 806.0 | 806.0 | 945.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 285.0 | 59.0 | 83.0 | 116.0 | 184.0 | 423.0 | 711.0 | 711.0 | 835.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 251.0 | 45.0 | 67.0 | 97.0 | 159.0 | 377.0 | 639.0 | 639.0 | 753.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 223.0 | 33.0 | 53.0 | 81.0 | 138.0 | 338.0 | 580.0 | 580.0 | 685.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 193.0 | 20.0 | 39.0 | 64.0 | 116.0 | 298.0 | 517.0 | 517.0 | 612.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 172.0 | 12.0 | 29.0 | 52.0 | 100.0 | 270.0 | 475.0 | 475.0 | 563.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 142.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 35.0 | 78.0 | 229.0 | 411.0 | 411.0 | 490.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 124.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 25.0 | 65.0 | 205.0 | 375.0 | 375.0 | 448.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 107.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 52.0 | 181.0 | 338.0 | 338.0 | 406.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 97.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 45.0 | 168.0 | 317.0 | 317.0 | 382.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 87.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 37.0 | 155.0 | 297.0 | 297.0 | 359.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 128.0 | 255.0 | 255.0 | 311.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 63.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 122.0 | 246.0 | 246.0 | 299.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 99.0 | 210.0 | 210.0 | 258.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 91.0 | 198.0 | 198.0 | 245.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 177.0 | 177.0 | 220.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74.0 | 172.0 | 172.0 | 215.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 69.0 | 164.0 | 164.0 | 205.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 68.0 | 162.0 | 162.0 | 203.0 |
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