Prediction 3565
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Paraná |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=PR (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 541.0 | 66.0 | 106.0 | 165.0 | 303.0 | 920.0 | 1891.0 | 1891.0 | 2373.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 570.0 | 68.0 | 110.0 | 171.0 | 316.0 | 979.0 | 2042.0 | 2042.0 | 2576.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 597.0 | 69.0 | 112.0 | 176.0 | 328.0 | 1036.0 | 2191.0 | 2191.0 | 2777.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 626.0 | 71.0 | 115.0 | 182.0 | 341.0 | 1094.0 | 2346.0 | 2346.0 | 2986.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 700.0 | 83.0 | 132.0 | 205.0 | 382.0 | 1231.0 | 2664.0 | 2664.0 | 3405.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 743.0 | 87.0 | 138.0 | 215.0 | 402.0 | 1315.0 | 2880.0 | 2880.0 | 3695.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 886.0 | 113.0 | 173.0 | 262.0 | 482.0 | 1569.0 | 3463.0 | 3463.0 | 4458.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 930.0 | 117.0 | 179.0 | 272.0 | 502.0 | 1659.0 | 3703.0 | 3703.0 | 4784.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 1017.0 | 130.0 | 196.0 | 297.0 | 548.0 | 1824.0 | 4110.0 | 4110.0 | 5328.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 1138.0 | 149.0 | 222.0 | 334.0 | 613.0 | 2051.0 | 4662.0 | 4662.0 | 6064.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 1082.0 | 132.0 | 202.0 | 308.0 | 575.0 | 1969.0 | 4530.0 | 4530.0 | 5915.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 912.0 | 95.0 | 154.0 | 244.0 | 474.0 | 1684.0 | 3936.0 | 3936.0 | 5162.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 1033.0 | 113.0 | 179.0 | 280.0 | 538.0 | 1913.0 | 4500.0 | 4500.0 | 5916.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 1211.0 | 142.0 | 218.0 | 334.0 | 633.0 | 2245.0 | 5311.0 | 5311.0 | 7000.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 1479.0 | 186.0 | 276.0 | 417.0 | 777.0 | 2743.0 | 6525.0 | 6525.0 | 8620.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 1670.0 | 215.0 | 315.0 | 472.0 | 877.0 | 3107.0 | 7442.0 | 7442.0 | 9856.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 2082.0 | 281.0 | 404.0 | 597.0 | 1097.0 | 3877.0 | 9336.0 | 9336.0 | 12391.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 2521.0 | 350.0 | 497.0 | 728.0 | 1329.0 | 4707.0 | 11402.0 | 11402.0 | 15169.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 3082.0 | 437.0 | 615.0 | 894.0 | 1625.0 | 5768.0 | 14056.0 | 14056.0 | 18743.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 3469.0 | 493.0 | 691.0 | 1004.0 | 1824.0 | 6518.0 | 15993.0 | 15993.0 | 21376.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 4311.0 | 622.0 | 866.0 | 1251.0 | 2266.0 | 8123.0 | 20049.0 | 20049.0 | 26855.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 5038.0 | 728.0 | 1011.0 | 1458.0 | 2642.0 | 9529.0 | 23667.0 | 23667.0 | 31771.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 5791.0 | 836.0 | 1158.0 | 1670.0 | 3028.0 | 10994.0 | 27480.0 | 27480.0 | 36970.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 6667.0 | 961.0 | 1329.0 | 1914.0 | 3476.0 | 12704.0 | 31950.0 | 31950.0 | 43075.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 6876.0 | 979.0 | 1356.0 | 1958.0 | 3570.0 | 13161.0 | 33315.0 | 33315.0 | 45010.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 7162.0 | 1009.0 | 1400.0 | 2025.0 | 3703.0 | 13767.0 | 35066.0 | 35066.0 | 47474.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 7442.0 | 1037.0 | 1441.0 | 2089.0 | 3833.0 | 14363.0 | 36806.0 | 36806.0 | 49927.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 6871.0 | 938.0 | 1310.0 | 1907.0 | 3520.0 | 13324.0 | 34360.0 | 34360.0 | 46702.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 5988.0 | 796.0 | 1120.0 | 1640.0 | 3049.0 | 11672.0 | 30295.0 | 30295.0 | 41260.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 5350.0 | 693.0 | 981.0 | 1446.0 | 2708.0 | 10479.0 | 27369.0 | 27369.0 | 37346.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 4590.0 | 575.0 | 822.0 | 1221.0 | 2307.0 | 9038.0 | 23757.0 | 23757.0 | 32480.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 3571.0 | 423.0 | 615.0 | 927.0 | 1777.0 | 7079.0 | 18739.0 | 18739.0 | 25671.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 2591.0 | 279.0 | 420.0 | 648.0 | 1271.0 | 5182.0 | 13832.0 | 13832.0 | 18989.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 1907.0 | 180.0 | 285.0 | 454.0 | 919.0 | 3853.0 | 10378.0 | 10378.0 | 14280.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 1421.0 | 110.0 | 189.0 | 317.0 | 670.0 | 2904.0 | 7902.0 | 7902.0 | 10899.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 1178.0 | 75.0 | 141.0 | 248.0 | 545.0 | 2434.0 | 6680.0 | 6680.0 | 9233.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 903.0 | 36.0 | 88.0 | 172.0 | 405.0 | 1895.0 | 5261.0 | 5261.0 | 7290.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 766.0 | 16.0 | 60.0 | 132.0 | 333.0 | 1630.0 | 4582.0 | 4582.0 | 6369.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 630.0 | 0.0 | 33.0 | 94.0 | 263.0 | 1366.0 | 3899.0 | 3899.0 | 5439.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 558.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 73.0 | 226.0 | 1229.0 | 3552.0 | 3552.0 | 4971.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 479.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 51.0 | 185.0 | 1076.0 | 3154.0 | 3154.0 | 4429.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 443.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.0 | 166.0 | 1007.0 | 2985.0 | 2985.0 | 4204.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 393.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 141.0 | 910.0 | 2733.0 | 2733.0 | 3861.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 119.0 | 827.0 | 2517.0 | 2517.0 | 3566.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 322.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 104.0 | 773.0 | 2380.0 | 2380.0 | 3382.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 318.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 101.0 | 767.0 | 2379.0 | 2379.0 | 3387.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 305.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 94.0 | 745.0 | 2330.0 | 2330.0 | 3325.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 294.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 88.0 | 725.0 | 2287.0 | 2287.0 | 3270.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 298.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 90.0 | 737.0 | 2335.0 | 2335.0 | 3344.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 293.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 86.0 | 728.0 | 2322.0 | 2322.0 | 3331.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 287.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 719.0 | 2308.0 | 2308.0 | 3317.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 295.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 86.0 | 740.0 | 2380.0 | 2380.0 | 3426.0 |
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