Prediction 3566
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Rio de Janeiro |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=RJ (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 423.0 | 13.0 | 45.0 | 92.0 | 209.0 | 787.0 | 1793.0 | 1793.0 | 2322.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 415.0 | 6.0 | 37.0 | 83.0 | 199.0 | 788.0 | 1841.0 | 1841.0 | 2403.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 422.0 | 3.0 | 33.0 | 80.0 | 198.0 | 813.0 | 1941.0 | 1941.0 | 2551.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 420.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 75.0 | 193.0 | 823.0 | 2007.0 | 2007.0 | 2654.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 426.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 73.0 | 193.0 | 846.0 | 2100.0 | 2100.0 | 2794.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 458.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 79.0 | 207.0 | 915.0 | 2302.0 | 2302.0 | 3077.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 447.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 72.0 | 197.0 | 905.0 | 2316.0 | 2316.0 | 3112.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 470.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 76.0 | 207.0 | 958.0 | 2479.0 | 2479.0 | 3345.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 528.0 | 1.0 | 36.0 | 90.0 | 235.0 | 1077.0 | 2807.0 | 2807.0 | 3799.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 510.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 82.0 | 223.0 | 1053.0 | 2782.0 | 2782.0 | 3780.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 481.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 71.0 | 205.0 | 1007.0 | 2696.0 | 2696.0 | 3678.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 482.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 69.0 | 203.0 | 1015.0 | 2745.0 | 2745.0 | 3757.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 692.0 | 17.0 | 60.0 | 127.0 | 311.0 | 1429.0 | 3835.0 | 3835.0 | 5250.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 784.0 | 29.0 | 76.0 | 151.0 | 356.0 | 1615.0 | 4351.0 | 4351.0 | 5967.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 887.0 | 42.0 | 94.0 | 177.0 | 406.0 | 1824.0 | 4929.0 | 4929.0 | 6770.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 864.0 | 37.0 | 87.0 | 169.0 | 392.0 | 1788.0 | 4867.0 | 4867.0 | 6700.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 935.0 | 45.0 | 99.0 | 186.0 | 426.0 | 1936.0 | 5288.0 | 5288.0 | 7290.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 996.0 | 52.0 | 109.0 | 201.0 | 455.0 | 2063.0 | 5652.0 | 5652.0 | 7803.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 1016.0 | 53.0 | 111.0 | 205.0 | 464.0 | 2110.0 | 5806.0 | 5806.0 | 8027.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 1082.0 | 61.0 | 122.0 | 221.0 | 495.0 | 2248.0 | 6200.0 | 6200.0 | 8581.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 1218.0 | 78.0 | 146.0 | 256.0 | 562.0 | 2524.0 | 6966.0 | 6966.0 | 9647.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 1327.0 | 92.0 | 165.0 | 284.0 | 615.0 | 2747.0 | 7592.0 | 7592.0 | 10522.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 1517.0 | 116.0 | 198.0 | 334.0 | 709.0 | 3133.0 | 8662.0 | 8662.0 | 12011.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 1610.0 | 127.0 | 214.0 | 357.0 | 754.0 | 3326.0 | 9207.0 | 9207.0 | 12775.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 1609.0 | 126.0 | 213.0 | 355.0 | 752.0 | 3329.0 | 9237.0 | 9237.0 | 12826.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1784.0 | 148.0 | 244.0 | 401.0 | 838.0 | 3686.0 | 10228.0 | 10228.0 | 14207.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 1746.0 | 142.0 | 236.0 | 389.0 | 818.0 | 3612.0 | 10044.0 | 10044.0 | 13960.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 1635.0 | 127.0 | 215.0 | 359.0 | 762.0 | 3393.0 | 9461.0 | 9461.0 | 13159.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 1642.0 | 127.0 | 215.0 | 360.0 | 764.0 | 3410.0 | 9520.0 | 9520.0 | 13246.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 1600.0 | 121.0 | 207.0 | 348.0 | 743.0 | 3328.0 | 9305.0 | 9305.0 | 12952.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 1539.0 | 113.0 | 196.0 | 332.0 | 712.0 | 3207.0 | 8983.0 | 8983.0 | 12509.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 1364.0 | 90.0 | 164.0 | 285.0 | 625.0 | 2856.0 | 8026.0 | 8026.0 | 11184.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 1060.0 | 50.0 | 109.0 | 205.0 | 474.0 | 2244.0 | 6347.0 | 6347.0 | 8854.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 894.0 | 29.0 | 79.0 | 161.0 | 392.0 | 1909.0 | 5430.0 | 5430.0 | 7582.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 761.0 | 11.0 | 55.0 | 126.0 | 326.0 | 1642.0 | 4697.0 | 4697.0 | 6565.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 648.0 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 96.0 | 270.0 | 1414.0 | 4071.0 | 4071.0 | 5696.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 548.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 70.0 | 220.0 | 1211.0 | 3513.0 | 3513.0 | 4922.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 487.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 54.0 | 190.0 | 1089.0 | 3179.0 | 3179.0 | 4459.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 434.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.0 | 164.0 | 982.0 | 2888.0 | 2888.0 | 4055.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 364.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 129.0 | 840.0 | 2497.0 | 2497.0 | 3513.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 309.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 102.0 | 729.0 | 2192.0 | 2192.0 | 3088.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 263.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79.0 | 637.0 | 1940.0 | 1940.0 | 2739.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 243.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 69.0 | 597.0 | 1829.0 | 1829.0 | 2585.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 232.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 64.0 | 575.0 | 1769.0 | 1769.0 | 2503.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 197.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.0 | 504.0 | 1575.0 | 1575.0 | 2232.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 188.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41.0 | 484.0 | 1521.0 | 1521.0 | 2158.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 156.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 420.0 | 1344.0 | 1344.0 | 1912.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 155.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 418.0 | 1340.0 | 1340.0 | 1906.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 159.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 427.0 | 1365.0 | 1365.0 | 1942.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 149.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 407.0 | 1309.0 | 1309.0 | 1864.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 149.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 407.0 | 1311.0 | 1311.0 | 1867.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 145.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 399.0 | 1289.0 | 1289.0 | 1837.0 |
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