Prediction 3567
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Rio Grande do Norte |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=RN (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 68.0 | 174.0 | 174.0 | 221.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74.0 | 188.0 | 188.0 | 238.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 | 187.0 | 187.0 | 239.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 70.0 | 185.0 | 185.0 | 237.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 | 193.0 | 193.0 | 248.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 79.0 | 205.0 | 205.0 | 263.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 214.0 | 214.0 | 274.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 84.0 | 219.0 | 219.0 | 281.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 88.0 | 227.0 | 227.0 | 292.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 94.0 | 239.0 | 239.0 | 306.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 220.0 | 220.0 | 285.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 87.0 | 230.0 | 230.0 | 297.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 71.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 155.0 | 354.0 | 354.0 | 447.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 82.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 172.0 | 385.0 | 385.0 | 486.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 104.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 205.0 | 447.0 | 447.0 | 561.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 116.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.0 | 225.0 | 485.0 | 485.0 | 608.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 152.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 67.0 | 280.0 | 585.0 | 585.0 | 730.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 159.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 71.0 | 291.0 | 609.0 | 609.0 | 760.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 184.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 29.0 | 88.0 | 331.0 | 683.0 | 683.0 | 850.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 220.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 45.0 | 111.0 | 386.0 | 786.0 | 786.0 | 977.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 267.0 | 8.0 | 32.0 | 65.0 | 141.0 | 459.0 | 922.0 | 922.0 | 1143.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 303.0 | 18.0 | 44.0 | 81.0 | 164.0 | 514.0 | 1026.0 | 1026.0 | 1271.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 337.0 | 28.0 | 56.0 | 95.0 | 186.0 | 568.0 | 1128.0 | 1128.0 | 1397.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 356.0 | 32.0 | 62.0 | 103.0 | 198.0 | 598.0 | 1187.0 | 1187.0 | 1470.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 352.0 | 31.0 | 59.0 | 101.0 | 195.0 | 593.0 | 1180.0 | 1180.0 | 1463.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 442.0 | 56.0 | 91.0 | 140.0 | 253.0 | 732.0 | 1442.0 | 1442.0 | 1784.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 502.0 | 72.0 | 111.0 | 166.0 | 291.0 | 826.0 | 1619.0 | 1619.0 | 2002.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 506.0 | 73.0 | 112.0 | 167.0 | 294.0 | 834.0 | 1638.0 | 1638.0 | 2026.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 486.0 | 67.0 | 104.0 | 157.0 | 280.0 | 804.0 | 1585.0 | 1585.0 | 1963.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 502.0 | 70.0 | 109.0 | 164.0 | 290.0 | 830.0 | 1637.0 | 1637.0 | 2027.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 481.0 | 64.0 | 101.0 | 154.0 | 276.0 | 798.0 | 1581.0 | 1581.0 | 1960.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 480.0 | 63.0 | 100.0 | 153.0 | 275.0 | 797.0 | 1582.0 | 1582.0 | 1962.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 427.0 | 48.0 | 81.0 | 129.0 | 240.0 | 716.0 | 1433.0 | 1433.0 | 1780.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 404.0 | 41.0 | 73.0 | 119.0 | 225.0 | 682.0 | 1371.0 | 1371.0 | 1705.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 371.0 | 31.0 | 61.0 | 104.0 | 203.0 | 631.0 | 1275.0 | 1275.0 | 1589.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 344.0 | 23.0 | 52.0 | 92.0 | 186.0 | 590.0 | 1200.0 | 1200.0 | 1497.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 322.0 | 17.0 | 44.0 | 82.0 | 171.0 | 556.0 | 1137.0 | 1137.0 | 1421.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 284.0 | 6.0 | 30.0 | 65.0 | 147.0 | 499.0 | 1033.0 | 1033.0 | 1294.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 282.0 | 5.0 | 29.0 | 64.0 | 145.0 | 496.0 | 1031.0 | 1031.0 | 1292.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 261.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 55.0 | 131.0 | 465.0 | 975.0 | 975.0 | 1224.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 239.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 44.0 | 116.0 | 431.0 | 912.0 | 912.0 | 1148.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 205.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 30.0 | 94.0 | 379.0 | 815.0 | 815.0 | 1029.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 194.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 87.0 | 362.0 | 785.0 | 785.0 | 993.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 199.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 90.0 | 371.0 | 803.0 | 803.0 | 1016.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 169.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 71.0 | 324.0 | 716.0 | 716.0 | 909.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 143.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 54.0 | 283.0 | 637.0 | 637.0 | 812.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 108.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 228.0 | 533.0 | 533.0 | 684.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 106.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 226.0 | 530.0 | 530.0 | 680.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 99.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 215.0 | 509.0 | 509.0 | 655.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 86.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 195.0 | 471.0 | 471.0 | 608.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 71.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 171.0 | 427.0 | 427.0 | 553.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 174.0 | 432.0 | 432.0 | 560.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
