Prediction 357

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

This upload represents the epidemic prediction for unseen data from the period of 2024-06-16 to 2025-10-05 in the state CE. The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


Mostrar Tabela
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2024-06-16 1202.76 - 1180.70 - - - - 1225.11 -
2024-06-23 1236.50 - 1214.02 - - - - 1259.29 -
2024-06-30 916.98 - 898.63 - - - - 935.62 -
2024-07-07 1003.87 - 984.37 - - - - 1023.65 -
2024-07-14 718.13 - 702.47 - - - - 734.05 -
2024-07-21 698.96 - 683.56 - - - - 714.61 -
2024-07-28 618.80 - 604.54 - - - - 633.30 -
2024-08-04 576.93 - 563.28 - - - - 590.83 -
2024-08-11 574.87 - 561.25 - - - - 588.73 -
2024-08-18 432.81 - 421.34 - - - - 444.50 -
2024-08-25 361.83 - 351.52 - - - - 372.37 -
2024-09-01 358.23 - 347.98 - - - - 368.71 -
2024-09-08 306.93 - 297.56 - - - - 316.52 -
2024-09-15 331.37 - 321.57 - - - - 341.38 -
2024-09-22 290.98 - 281.89 - - - - 300.28 -
2024-09-29 260.06 - 251.54 - - - - 268.79 -
2024-10-06 256.96 - 248.50 - - - - 265.64 -
2024-10-13 224.49 - 216.66 - - - - 232.54 -
2024-10-20 180.72 - 173.77 - - - - 187.86 -
2024-10-27 223.18 - 215.37 - - - - 231.21 -
2024-11-03 215.99 - 208.32 - - - - 223.87 -
2024-11-10 250.00 - 241.67 - - - - 258.54 -
2024-11-17 252.70 - 244.32 - - - - 261.30 -
2024-11-24 234.86 - 226.82 - - - - 243.11 -
2024-12-01 260.98 - 252.44 - - - - 269.74 -
2024-12-08 225.35 - 217.49 - - - - 233.41 -
2024-12-15 190.72 - 183.57 - - - - 198.08 -
2024-12-22 175.04 - 168.46 - - - - 181.81 -
2024-12-29 412.35 - 115.45 - - - - 1071.82 -
2025-01-05 447.46 - 125.29 - - - - 1163.06 -
2025-01-12 508.71 - 142.44 - - - - 1322.24 -
2025-01-19 636.08 - 178.12 - - - - 1653.23 -
2025-01-26 728.37 - 203.97 - - - - 1893.07 -
2025-02-02 850.71 - 238.23 - - - - 2211.00 -
2025-02-09 1032.87 - 289.25 - - - - 2684.38 -
2025-02-16 913.42 - 255.80 - - - - 2373.96 -
2025-02-23 1410.44 - 395.01 - - - - 3665.61 -
2025-03-02 1519.19 - 425.47 - - - - 3948.21 -
2025-03-09 1355.62 - 379.66 - - - - 3523.14 -
2025-03-16 1555.68 - 435.69 - - - - 4043.05 -
2025-03-23 1736.67 - 486.39 - - - - 4513.40 -
2025-03-30 2259.92 - 632.95 - - - - 5873.20 -
2025-04-06 2564.03 - 718.12 - - - - 6663.49 -
2025-04-13 2228.21 - 624.07 - - - - 5790.79 -
2025-04-20 2365.09 - 662.40 - - - - 6146.50 -
2025-04-27 2744.86 - 768.78 - - - - 7133.43 -
2025-05-04 2547.97 - 713.63 - - - - 6621.76 -
2025-05-11 2364.44 - 662.22 - - - - 6144.80 -
2025-05-18 2503.91 - 701.29 - - - - 6507.25 -
2025-05-25 1953.93 - 547.24 - - - - 5078.00 -
2025-06-01 1824.44 - 510.97 - - - - 4741.49 -
2025-06-08 1831.10 - 512.84 - - - - 4758.79 -
2025-06-15 1439.69 - 403.20 - - - - 3741.62 -
2025-06-22 1480.08 - 414.51 - - - - 3846.60 -
2025-06-29 1097.62 - 307.39 - - - - 2852.68 -
2025-07-06 1201.62 - 336.52 - - - - 3122.95 -
2025-07-13 859.60 - 240.72 - - - - 2234.12 -
2025-07-20 836.64 - 234.29 - - - - 2174.47 -
2025-07-27 740.70 - 207.42 - - - - 1925.12 -
2025-08-03 690.58 - 193.38 - - - - 1794.88 -
2025-08-10 688.11 - 192.69 - - - - 1788.46 -
2025-08-17 518.07 - 145.06 - - - - 1346.56 -
2025-08-24 433.11 - 121.26 - - - - 1125.78 -
2025-08-31 428.80 - 120.06 - - - - 1114.58 -
2025-09-07 367.39 - 102.86 - - - - 954.99 -
2025-09-14 396.64 - 111.05 - - - - 1031.02 -
2025-09-21 348.30 - 97.51 - - - - 905.38 -
2025-09-28 311.29 - 87.14 - - - - 809.19 -
2025-10-05 307.58 - 86.10 - - - - 799.56 -
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