Prediction 3570
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Rio Grande do Sul |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=RS (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 86.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 182.0 | 411.0 | 411.0 | 521.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 88.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 186.0 | 426.0 | 426.0 | 540.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 82.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 179.0 | 417.0 | 417.0 | 532.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 79.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 177.0 | 418.0 | 418.0 | 534.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 89.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 194.0 | 456.0 | 456.0 | 583.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 89.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 195.0 | 462.0 | 462.0 | 592.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 86.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 192.0 | 458.0 | 458.0 | 589.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 99.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 214.0 | 504.0 | 504.0 | 648.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 106.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 227.0 | 534.0 | 534.0 | 687.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 113.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 238.0 | 560.0 | 560.0 | 720.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 108.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 231.0 | 550.0 | 550.0 | 708.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 76.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 182.0 | 455.0 | 455.0 | 591.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 160.0 | 414.0 | 414.0 | 541.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 79.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 188.0 | 473.0 | 473.0 | 616.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 71.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 176.0 | 452.0 | 452.0 | 590.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 179.0 | 459.0 | 459.0 | 600.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 225.0 | 552.0 | 552.0 | 718.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 138.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 47.0 | 288.0 | 682.0 | 682.0 | 882.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 150.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 54.0 | 308.0 | 726.0 | 726.0 | 937.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 252.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 38.0 | 115.0 | 475.0 | 1065.0 | 1065.0 | 1365.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 388.0 | 17.0 | 47.0 | 92.0 | 198.0 | 699.0 | 1524.0 | 1524.0 | 1944.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 559.0 | 57.0 | 97.0 | 158.0 | 302.0 | 980.0 | 2099.0 | 2099.0 | 2670.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 754.0 | 102.0 | 155.0 | 233.0 | 420.0 | 1302.0 | 2761.0 | 2761.0 | 3506.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 1041.0 | 169.0 | 240.0 | 344.0 | 594.0 | 1776.0 | 3734.0 | 3734.0 | 4736.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 1339.0 | 238.0 | 327.0 | 458.0 | 774.0 | 2268.0 | 4747.0 | 4747.0 | 6017.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1644.0 | 309.0 | 416.0 | 575.0 | 959.0 | 2773.0 | 5791.0 | 5791.0 | 7338.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 1894.0 | 366.0 | 489.0 | 671.0 | 1109.0 | 3188.0 | 6652.0 | 6652.0 | 8430.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 2018.0 | 394.0 | 524.0 | 717.0 | 1183.0 | 3395.0 | 7087.0 | 7087.0 | 8983.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 1884.0 | 361.0 | 483.0 | 664.0 | 1101.0 | 3177.0 | 6646.0 | 6646.0 | 8429.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 1801.0 | 341.0 | 458.0 | 632.0 | 1050.0 | 3043.0 | 6376.0 | 6376.0 | 8090.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 1446.0 | 258.0 | 353.0 | 494.0 | 835.0 | 2458.0 | 5175.0 | 5175.0 | 6574.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 1266.0 | 216.0 | 300.0 | 425.0 | 725.0 | 2161.0 | 4566.0 | 4566.0 | 5805.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 867.0 | 123.0 | 183.0 | 271.0 | 484.0 | 1501.0 | 3207.0 | 3207.0 | 4085.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 640.0 | 71.0 | 116.0 | 184.0 | 347.0 | 1126.0 | 2433.0 | 2433.0 | 3106.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 415.0 | 19.0 | 50.0 | 97.0 | 211.0 | 753.0 | 1663.0 | 1663.0 | 2132.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 368.0 | 8.0 | 36.0 | 79.0 | 182.0 | 675.0 | 1504.0 | 1504.0 | 1930.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 211.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 88.0 | 416.0 | 967.0 | 967.0 | 1251.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 181.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 69.0 | 369.0 | 878.0 | 878.0 | 1141.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 159.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 54.0 | 334.0 | 813.0 | 813.0 | 1062.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 136.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.0 | 298.0 | 744.0 | 744.0 | 977.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 118.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 269.0 | 689.0 | 689.0 | 911.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 103.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 246.0 | 646.0 | 646.0 | 857.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 93.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 231.0 | 619.0 | 619.0 | 824.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 85.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 218.0 | 595.0 | 595.0 | 795.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 78.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 207.0 | 574.0 | 574.0 | 770.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 198.0 | 559.0 | 559.0 | 752.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 186.0 | 534.0 | 534.0 | 721.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 187.0 | 540.0 | 540.0 | 730.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 172.0 | 509.0 | 509.0 | 692.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 178.0 | 524.0 | 524.0 | 712.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 174.0 | 518.0 | 518.0 | 704.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 170.0 | 511.0 | 511.0 | 697.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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