Prediction 3571
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Santa Catarina |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=SC (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 255.0 | 4.0 | 27.0 | 59.0 | 132.0 | 441.0 | 893.0 | 893.0 | 1109.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 251.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 55.0 | 128.0 | 440.0 | 905.0 | 905.0 | 1130.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 229.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 43.0 | 112.0 | 411.0 | 863.0 | 863.0 | 1083.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 220.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 37.0 | 104.0 | 401.0 | 855.0 | 855.0 | 1077.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 232.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 40.0 | 111.0 | 424.0 | 910.0 | 910.0 | 1150.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 242.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 42.0 | 115.0 | 443.0 | 958.0 | 958.0 | 1213.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 275.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 53.0 | 134.0 | 499.0 | 1079.0 | 1079.0 | 1368.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 324.0 | 6.0 | 33.0 | 72.0 | 163.0 | 583.0 | 1256.0 | 1256.0 | 1594.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 454.0 | 36.0 | 71.0 | 122.0 | 242.0 | 798.0 | 1699.0 | 1699.0 | 2154.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 508.0 | 47.0 | 85.0 | 140.0 | 273.0 | 890.0 | 1899.0 | 1899.0 | 2412.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 460.0 | 33.0 | 68.0 | 119.0 | 242.0 | 818.0 | 1768.0 | 1768.0 | 2253.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 304.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 57.0 | 145.0 | 566.0 | 1265.0 | 1265.0 | 1624.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 223.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 95.0 | 434.0 | 1003.0 | 1003.0 | 1296.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 241.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 105.0 | 468.0 | 1080.0 | 1080.0 | 1397.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 244.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 106.0 | 475.0 | 1104.0 | 1104.0 | 1431.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 324.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 59.0 | 153.0 | 612.0 | 1398.0 | 1398.0 | 1808.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 499.0 | 32.0 | 68.0 | 122.0 | 255.0 | 909.0 | 2036.0 | 2036.0 | 2625.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 762.0 | 87.0 | 139.0 | 218.0 | 410.0 | 1357.0 | 3003.0 | 3003.0 | 3867.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 1062.0 | 150.0 | 220.0 | 325.0 | 585.0 | 1872.0 | 4122.0 | 4122.0 | 5306.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 1481.0 | 236.0 | 331.0 | 475.0 | 828.0 | 2592.0 | 5693.0 | 5693.0 | 7330.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 3329.0 | 623.0 | 828.0 | 1139.0 | 1907.0 | 5761.0 | 12571.0 | 12571.0 | 16176.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 5440.0 | 1057.0 | 1388.0 | 1889.0 | 3131.0 | 9398.0 | 20527.0 | 20527.0 | 26435.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 7779.0 | 1530.0 | 2000.0 | 2713.0 | 4482.0 | 13449.0 | 29454.0 | 29454.0 | 37973.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 11884.0 | 2359.0 | 3072.0 | 4155.0 | 6849.0 | 20568.0 | 45170.0 | 45170.0 | 58297.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 15459.0 | 3067.0 | 3991.0 | 5395.0 | 8897.0 | 26807.0 | 59072.0 | 59072.0 | 76328.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 17513.0 | 3458.0 | 4502.0 | 6089.0 | 10058.0 | 30440.0 | 67316.0 | 67316.0 | 87084.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 18664.0 | 3663.0 | 4772.0 | 6463.0 | 10694.0 | 32518.0 | 72164.0 | 72164.0 | 93464.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 19681.0 | 3840.0 | 5006.0 | 6787.0 | 11252.0 | 34369.0 | 76529.0 | 76529.0 | 99227.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 17595.0 | 3401.0 | 4442.0 | 6034.0 | 10032.0 | 30804.0 | 68831.0 | 68831.0 | 89344.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 18558.0 | 3568.0 | 4664.0 | 6341.0 | 10560.0 | 32558.0 | 72972.0 | 72972.0 | 94815.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 16312.0 | 3107.0 | 4069.0 | 5543.0 | 9257.0 | 28687.0 | 64506.0 | 64506.0 | 83900.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 13354.0 | 2513.0 | 3301.0 | 4508.0 | 7555.0 | 23545.0 | 53120.0 | 53120.0 | 69160.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 9005.0 | 1659.0 | 2191.0 | 3007.0 | 5071.0 | 15933.0 | 36087.0 | 36087.0 | 47035.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 6914.0 | 1248.0 | 1657.0 | 2285.0 | 3876.0 | 12273.0 | 27899.0 | 27899.0 | 36402.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 4459.0 | 772.0 | 1037.0 | 1445.0 | 2480.0 | 7957.0 | 18178.0 | 18178.0 | 23748.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 3540.0 | 593.0 | 804.0 | 1130.0 | 1957.0 | 6344.0 | 14554.0 | 14554.0 | 19035.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 2664.0 | 423.0 | 584.0 | 831.0 | 1459.0 | 4801.0 | 11070.0 | 11070.0 | 14497.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 1775.0 | 246.0 | 354.0 | 521.0 | 949.0 | 3254.0 | 7639.0 | 7639.0 | 10054.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 1257.0 | 144.0 | 221.0 | 341.0 | 651.0 | 2351.0 | 5637.0 | 5637.0 | 7461.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 964.0 | 86.0 | 146.0 | 240.0 | 483.0 | 1839.0 | 4499.0 | 4499.0 | 5988.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 689.0 | 34.0 | 78.0 | 148.0 | 329.0 | 1350.0 | 3384.0 | 3384.0 | 4531.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 566.0 | 11.0 | 48.0 | 106.0 | 259.0 | 1134.0 | 2900.0 | 2900.0 | 3904.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 523.0 | 1.0 | 36.0 | 90.0 | 233.0 | 1064.0 | 2763.0 | 2763.0 | 3734.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 407.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 52.0 | 169.0 | 854.0 | 2271.0 | 2271.0 | 3087.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 405.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 50.0 | 167.0 | 858.0 | 2306.0 | 2306.0 | 3144.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 383.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41.0 | 153.0 | 823.0 | 2239.0 | 2239.0 | 3063.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 335.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 126.0 | 736.0 | 2038.0 | 2038.0 | 2800.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 319.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 117.0 | 711.0 | 1992.0 | 1992.0 | 2746.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 304.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 108.0 | 686.0 | 1946.0 | 1946.0 | 2691.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 288.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 98.0 | 658.0 | 1888.0 | 1888.0 | 2620.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 296.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 102.0 | 678.0 | 1956.0 | 1956.0 | 2718.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 219.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 61.0 | 529.0 | 1574.0 | 1574.0 | 2200.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
