Prediction 3572
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Sergipe |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=SE (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 49.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 88.0 | 161.0 | 161.0 | 191.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 87.0 | 162.0 | 162.0 | 192.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 25.0 | 101.0 | 182.0 | 182.0 | 215.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 36.0 | 119.0 | 208.0 | 208.0 | 244.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 78.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 40.0 | 126.0 | 220.0 | 220.0 | 258.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 73.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 36.0 | 121.0 | 213.0 | 213.0 | 251.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 76.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 38.0 | 125.0 | 221.0 | 221.0 | 260.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 74.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 36.0 | 122.0 | 217.0 | 217.0 | 256.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 62.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 27.0 | 108.0 | 197.0 | 197.0 | 234.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 95.0 | 179.0 | 179.0 | 214.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 37.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 76.0 | 153.0 | 153.0 | 185.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 69.0 | 142.0 | 142.0 | 173.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 38.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 77.0 | 155.0 | 155.0 | 188.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 42.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 83.0 | 164.0 | 164.0 | 197.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 81.0 | 161.0 | 161.0 | 194.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 43.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 85.0 | 167.0 | 167.0 | 201.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 91.0 | 177.0 | 177.0 | 212.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 54.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 99.0 | 189.0 | 189.0 | 226.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 97.0 | 186.0 | 186.0 | 223.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 94.0 | 182.0 | 182.0 | 218.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 103.0 | 194.0 | 194.0 | 233.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 98.0 | 187.0 | 187.0 | 225.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 105.0 | 199.0 | 199.0 | 237.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 104.0 | 197.0 | 197.0 | 235.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 110.0 | 206.0 | 206.0 | 245.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 69.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 30.0 | 120.0 | 221.0 | 221.0 | 263.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 33.0 | 124.0 | 227.0 | 227.0 | 270.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 78.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 37.0 | 131.0 | 237.0 | 237.0 | 282.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 29.0 | 118.0 | 219.0 | 219.0 | 260.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 46.0 | 148.0 | 262.0 | 262.0 | 309.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 102.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 22.0 | 55.0 | 162.0 | 284.0 | 284.0 | 334.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 107.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 25.0 | 59.0 | 170.0 | 294.0 | 294.0 | 346.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 109.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 27.0 | 61.0 | 172.0 | 298.0 | 298.0 | 351.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 113.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 29.0 | 64.0 | 177.0 | 306.0 | 306.0 | 359.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 115.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 30.0 | 65.0 | 181.0 | 310.0 | 310.0 | 364.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 112.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 28.0 | 62.0 | 176.0 | 303.0 | 303.0 | 357.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 109.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 26.0 | 60.0 | 172.0 | 298.0 | 298.0 | 351.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 110.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 27.0 | 61.0 | 174.0 | 301.0 | 301.0 | 353.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 120.0 | 2.0 | 15.0 | 33.0 | 69.0 | 187.0 | 321.0 | 321.0 | 376.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 116.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 30.0 | 66.0 | 182.0 | 314.0 | 314.0 | 368.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 106.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 24.0 | 57.0 | 168.0 | 294.0 | 294.0 | 346.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 118.0 | 1.0 | 14.0 | 31.0 | 67.0 | 185.0 | 319.0 | 319.0 | 374.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 106.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 24.0 | 58.0 | 169.0 | 295.0 | 295.0 | 348.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 97.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 18.0 | 51.0 | 157.0 | 278.0 | 278.0 | 328.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 95.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 17.0 | 49.0 | 155.0 | 275.0 | 275.0 | 325.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 86.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 43.0 | 144.0 | 258.0 | 258.0 | 306.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 76.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 34.0 | 130.0 | 238.0 | 238.0 | 283.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 81.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 38.0 | 136.0 | 248.0 | 248.0 | 294.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 74.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 33.0 | 128.0 | 235.0 | 235.0 | 280.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 29.0 | 120.0 | 224.0 | 224.0 | 268.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 107.0 | 205.0 | 205.0 | 246.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 109.0 | 208.0 | 208.0 | 249.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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