Prediction 3574
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Tocantins |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=TO (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45.0 | 105.0 | 105.0 | 129.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 54.0 | 119.0 | 119.0 | 145.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 63.0 | 133.0 | 133.0 | 161.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 69.0 | 142.0 | 142.0 | 173.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 38.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 78.0 | 157.0 | 157.0 | 190.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 51.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 96.0 | 184.0 | 184.0 | 221.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 66.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 28.0 | 116.0 | 215.0 | 215.0 | 256.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 87.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 43.0 | 144.0 | 257.0 | 257.0 | 304.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 94.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 17.0 | 49.0 | 154.0 | 274.0 | 274.0 | 323.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 104.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 22.0 | 55.0 | 167.0 | 294.0 | 294.0 | 347.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 83.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 40.0 | 141.0 | 257.0 | 257.0 | 305.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 71.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 30.0 | 125.0 | 235.0 | 235.0 | 281.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 130.0 | 3.0 | 17.0 | 36.0 | 75.0 | 204.0 | 353.0 | 353.0 | 416.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 145.0 | 9.0 | 24.0 | 44.0 | 85.0 | 224.0 | 384.0 | 384.0 | 451.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 156.0 | 13.0 | 29.0 | 50.0 | 93.0 | 240.0 | 409.0 | 409.0 | 480.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 174.0 | 20.0 | 37.0 | 60.0 | 107.0 | 264.0 | 447.0 | 447.0 | 524.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 188.0 | 26.0 | 44.0 | 68.0 | 117.0 | 283.0 | 477.0 | 477.0 | 559.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 203.0 | 32.0 | 50.0 | 76.0 | 127.0 | 303.0 | 508.0 | 508.0 | 596.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 210.0 | 34.0 | 54.0 | 79.0 | 132.0 | 314.0 | 526.0 | 526.0 | 616.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 192.0 | 26.0 | 44.0 | 68.0 | 118.0 | 290.0 | 491.0 | 491.0 | 577.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 193.0 | 26.0 | 44.0 | 69.0 | 119.0 | 292.0 | 495.0 | 495.0 | 582.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 202.0 | 29.0 | 48.0 | 74.0 | 126.0 | 305.0 | 516.0 | 516.0 | 607.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 203.0 | 29.0 | 48.0 | 73.0 | 126.0 | 306.0 | 519.0 | 519.0 | 610.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 201.0 | 28.0 | 47.0 | 72.0 | 124.0 | 303.0 | 516.0 | 516.0 | 607.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 191.0 | 23.0 | 41.0 | 66.0 | 116.0 | 291.0 | 498.0 | 498.0 | 586.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 204.0 | 29.0 | 48.0 | 73.0 | 126.0 | 309.0 | 527.0 | 527.0 | 620.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 203.0 | 28.0 | 47.0 | 72.0 | 125.0 | 309.0 | 527.0 | 527.0 | 620.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 198.0 | 25.0 | 44.0 | 69.0 | 121.0 | 301.0 | 516.0 | 516.0 | 608.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 196.0 | 24.0 | 43.0 | 68.0 | 119.0 | 299.0 | 514.0 | 514.0 | 606.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 202.0 | 26.0 | 45.0 | 71.0 | 123.0 | 307.0 | 527.0 | 527.0 | 621.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 192.0 | 22.0 | 40.0 | 65.0 | 116.0 | 295.0 | 508.0 | 508.0 | 600.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 182.0 | 17.0 | 35.0 | 59.0 | 109.0 | 281.0 | 488.0 | 488.0 | 577.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 156.0 | 6.0 | 22.0 | 44.0 | 89.0 | 246.0 | 434.0 | 434.0 | 515.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 139.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 34.0 | 76.0 | 223.0 | 399.0 | 399.0 | 475.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 119.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 23.0 | 62.0 | 197.0 | 360.0 | 360.0 | 430.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 102.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 49.0 | 174.0 | 325.0 | 325.0 | 390.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 84.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 36.0 | 149.0 | 286.0 | 286.0 | 346.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 133.0 | 262.0 | 262.0 | 318.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 116.0 | 235.0 | 235.0 | 287.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 107.0 | 222.0 | 222.0 | 271.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 101.0 | 212.0 | 212.0 | 260.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 90.0 | 195.0 | 195.0 | 240.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 44.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 96.0 | 205.0 | 205.0 | 252.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 86.0 | 189.0 | 189.0 | 234.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 90.0 | 196.0 | 196.0 | 242.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 181.0 | 181.0 | 225.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74.0 | 171.0 | 171.0 | 213.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 168.0 | 168.0 | 209.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74.0 | 172.0 | 172.0 | 214.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 | 170.0 | 170.0 | 212.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74.0 | 172.0 | 172.0 | 214.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 71.0 | 167.0 | 167.0 | 209.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
