Prediction 3576
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Alagoas |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=AL (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 307.0 | 72.0 | 97.0 | 131.0 | 202.0 | 447.0 | 615.0 | 739.0 | 864.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 326.0 | 76.0 | 103.0 | 139.0 | 215.0 | 478.0 | 659.0 | 794.0 | 931.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 268.0 | 49.0 | 73.0 | 104.0 | 170.0 | 402.0 | 564.0 | 685.0 | 807.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 257.0 | 42.0 | 65.0 | 95.0 | 160.0 | 389.0 | 551.0 | 671.0 | 794.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 253.0 | 38.0 | 61.0 | 91.0 | 155.0 | 387.0 | 550.0 | 674.0 | 800.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 232.0 | 28.0 | 49.0 | 78.0 | 139.0 | 361.0 | 519.0 | 639.0 | 761.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 210.0 | 18.0 | 37.0 | 65.0 | 122.0 | 332.0 | 484.0 | 598.0 | 716.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 207.0 | 15.0 | 34.0 | 61.0 | 119.0 | 330.0 | 483.0 | 600.0 | 719.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 201.0 | 11.0 | 30.0 | 57.0 | 113.0 | 324.0 | 477.0 | 594.0 | 714.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 192.0 | 6.0 | 25.0 | 51.0 | 106.0 | 313.0 | 465.0 | 581.0 | 701.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 162.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 34.0 | 84.0 | 272.0 | 411.0 | 517.0 | 628.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 133.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 63.0 | 233.0 | 359.0 | 456.0 | 557.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 182.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 42.0 | 97.0 | 304.0 | 459.0 | 579.0 | 704.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 202.0 | 5.0 | 24.0 | 51.0 | 110.0 | 334.0 | 503.0 | 633.0 | 769.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 202.0 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 50.0 | 109.0 | 336.0 | 507.0 | 640.0 | 779.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 196.0 | 1.0 | 20.0 | 46.0 | 104.0 | 330.0 | 501.0 | 634.0 | 773.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 220.0 | 8.0 | 28.0 | 57.0 | 120.0 | 366.0 | 553.0 | 699.0 | 852.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 238.0 | 13.0 | 34.0 | 65.0 | 131.0 | 393.0 | 593.0 | 749.0 | 913.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 250.0 | 16.0 | 38.0 | 70.0 | 139.0 | 413.0 | 623.0 | 787.0 | 960.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 268.0 | 21.0 | 44.0 | 77.0 | 151.0 | 441.0 | 664.0 | 840.0 | 1025.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 299.0 | 29.0 | 55.0 | 91.0 | 171.0 | 487.0 | 732.0 | 925.0 | 1128.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 301.0 | 29.0 | 55.0 | 91.0 | 171.0 | 492.0 | 741.0 | 937.0 | 1145.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 297.0 | 27.0 | 52.0 | 88.0 | 168.0 | 488.0 | 737.0 | 935.0 | 1143.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 321.0 | 34.0 | 61.0 | 99.0 | 184.0 | 525.0 | 792.0 | 1004.0 | 1228.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 330.0 | 35.0 | 63.0 | 102.0 | 189.0 | 540.0 | 816.0 | 1034.0 | 1266.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 390.0 | 53.0 | 85.0 | 129.0 | 228.0 | 630.0 | 947.0 | 1199.0 | 1466.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 438.0 | 67.0 | 102.0 | 150.0 | 260.0 | 704.0 | 1055.0 | 1335.0 | 1631.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 497.0 | 84.0 | 122.0 | 177.0 | 298.0 | 794.0 | 1187.0 | 1500.0 | 1833.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 534.0 | 94.0 | 135.0 | 193.0 | 322.0 | 852.0 | 1273.0 | 1609.0 | 1967.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 611.0 | 117.0 | 162.0 | 227.0 | 373.0 | 970.0 | 1446.0 | 1827.0 | 2233.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 663.0 | 131.0 | 180.0 | 250.0 | 406.0 | 1051.0 | 1566.0 | 1978.0 | 2418.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 726.0 | 149.0 | 202.0 | 277.0 | 447.0 | 1148.0 | 1709.0 | 2160.0 | 2640.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 688.0 | 136.0 | 187.0 | 259.0 | 421.0 | 1093.0 | 1632.0 | 2065.0 | 2528.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 693.0 | 137.0 | 188.0 | 260.0 | 423.0 | 1103.0 | 1650.0 | 2089.0 | 2559.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 686.0 | 133.0 | 184.0 | 255.0 | 418.0 | 1094.0 | 1639.0 | 2078.0 | 2548.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 714.0 | 141.0 | 193.0 | 267.0 | 435.0 | 1139.0 | 1707.0 | 2165.0 | 2656.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 668.0 | 126.0 | 175.0 | 245.0 | 404.0 | 1071.0 | 1611.0 | 2046.0 | 2513.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 600.0 | 104.0 | 149.0 | 213.0 | 358.0 | 969.0 | 1466.0 | 1867.0 | 2298.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 596.0 | 102.0 | 146.0 | 210.0 | 355.0 | 966.0 | 1465.0 | 1868.0 | 2302.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 592.0 | 99.0 | 143.0 | 207.0 | 351.0 | 963.0 | 1463.0 | 1868.0 | 2305.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 530.0 | 80.0 | 120.0 | 178.0 | 309.0 | 869.0 | 1328.0 | 1700.0 | 2102.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 463.0 | 60.0 | 96.0 | 147.0 | 265.0 | 768.0 | 1181.0 | 1518.0 | 1881.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 463.0 | 59.0 | 95.0 | 146.0 | 264.0 | 770.0 | 1186.0 | 1526.0 | 1893.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 427.0 | 48.0 | 81.0 | 130.0 | 240.0 | 715.0 | 1109.0 | 1429.0 | 1776.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 400.0 | 40.0 | 71.0 | 117.0 | 222.0 | 675.0 | 1051.0 | 1358.0 | 1690.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 341.0 | 22.0 | 51.0 | 91.0 | 184.0 | 586.0 | 920.0 | 1194.0 | 1489.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 307.0 | 12.0 | 38.0 | 75.0 | 161.0 | 534.0 | 844.0 | 1098.0 | 1373.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 290.0 | 7.0 | 32.0 | 68.0 | 150.0 | 509.0 | 809.0 | 1055.0 | 1321.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 263.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 55.0 | 132.0 | 467.0 | 747.0 | 977.0 | 1226.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 258.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 53.0 | 129.0 | 460.0 | 738.0 | 967.0 | 1215.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 225.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 39.0 | 108.0 | 410.0 | 665.0 | 874.0 | 1102.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 179.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 78.0 | 338.0 | 557.0 | 737.0 | 934.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
